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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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05-06-2017, 12:47 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Kentucky Derby Race 12 5/6/17 G1 2,000000
We all know the horses
So here are my top 5 TPRs If I get good enough odds I will be betting the 5, 7 and 14 Looking to betting 5.7 and 14 if I get over 4 to 1 on Empire #14 Patch #20 rates well but other than Big Brown who can win from post 20? Last edited by Bill V.; 05-06-2017 at 12:52 PM. |
05-06-2017, 01:12 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,678
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Agree on the 7 & 14 but will also put in the 16 - I'm excusing the last race because of a bad start.
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05-06-2017, 02:21 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA.
Posts: 2,531
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14-17-18 in my selections
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i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others. |
05-06-2017, 03:36 PM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
2-14-5-7 Good luck! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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05-06-2017, 03:38 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Derby
13-14-17
bob |
05-06-2017, 03:47 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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Marathon Method in the Derby.
Top 5 and positions #5 Always Dreaming 94.9 1st #8 Hence 95.7 1st #19 Practical Joke 94.7 2nd #6 State of Honor 94.9 3rd #18 Gormley 95.9 3rd Yesterday in the Oaks the top filly had a 95.9. In the Derby today the slowest horse in the top five has 95.9 with the best being a 94.7. Three year old fillies are about one full second slower than three year old colts on average at this point. In order...5,8,19,6,18 Wait for odds. Pook |
05-06-2017, 05:25 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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My top four
17-15-16-14 |
05-06-2017, 05:29 PM | #8 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 97
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Project pace mid 46 - mid to hi 110
5, 6, 11, 17, 3 all gonna be thinking about the front Looking for OTE Like the 8 for the same reason liked conquest mo money in ark derby. 8 won against a 45.7-110.2 - from way back which is of some concern with big field. Also like the 18 who beat the 11 who set a 46.6 -110.9 which I called the FPLR & based projected pace. Big odds maybe bet wp 8 & 18...both have won on the wet too fwiw |
05-06-2017, 05:54 PM | #9 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 34
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Thunder Snow
Like Ted, I like Thunder Snow. The horse won at 9.5 furlongs on a muddy track at Meyden. These horses have not travelled well in the past, but this one has class. Maybe?
I also have him and three other horses coupled with the Oaks winner in the Oaks/Derby double so I would love to see him win. |
05-06-2017, 06:02 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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My only real contenders are the 5 -17 -2 16. The 5 has done everything asked of him so far. This 17 isn't speed crazy and can rate, in his last he had to chase or lose the race. With additional speed in here he can rate and move later in the race for a score. The 2 horse is better than it appears, has some class, won on an off track and at 9F. Still races green and the most upside of all of these. Using Trakus I made his TPR ratings both PMTR and my own. He basically ran only 4 lg . below Gun Runner and 5 .5 lg of Arrogate on the same day for comparison handicapping. For a 3yr old that's saying something and is classier than appears and should improve with maturity. I'm surprised he's only 16-1 at this time, then again those connections have a lot of moo-la. I also like the 16 as I tossed his last race due to the track or bounce.
So my order is 2-5-17-16. The horses in this race all ran their best race in their last and the race is really unpredictable and not worth trying to get too involved and hammering something is out of the question. I'll throw a couple bucks on the 2,16,18 & 19 for a price and an a small EX with those on top of the 5 and 17 and reverse with the 5 & 17 over the 2,16,18,19. Best of luck in this Calvary charge. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-06-2017 at 06:05 PM. |
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