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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-13-2021, 06:36 PM   #11
Psychotic Parakeet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Avoid lines with extreme variants, in this case it was -22. You'll see this a lot in Turf lines, off track lines, some track lines during the winter and on big race days they tend to make the track faster.


The easiest way to check this is to pick your lines , than go to the analysis window and click on the Original tab. There you will see the variant for every horse you chose a line for. Look for a variant that is out of the norm as compared to all the other horses' lines chosen.


When you see a line that is abnormal to the others such as -22 than go back and choose another line for that horse. For Proxy that would be L3.


In the DRF the average variant is 17 for tracks however in RDSS TrackMaster uses 0 as a base so -22 is extremely fast and abnormal. Avoid lines with extremely fast or slow variants.

Mitch44
Thank you for your knowledge on this. It will be another new thing I'll pay attention to.

I was looking back at that second-to-last race, which was the Louisiana Derby. The horse that won it, Hot Rod Charlie, he broke a 44-year-old track record for that distance. He lowered the bar by over 1.2 seconds. If he remains on-track and draws for the Kentucky Derby, which appears he is so far, then that winning line will definitely be unusable for the First Saturday in May.
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Old 04-13-2021, 06:41 PM   #12
Mitch44
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These little things can up your game. Most members miss these abnormal variants and they sure can cost you some $$$$$.


Best of luck to you in all your endeavors.


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Old 04-13-2021, 10:28 PM   #13
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Avoid lines with extreme variants, in this case it was -22. You'll see this a lot in Turf lines, off track lines, some track lines during the winter and on big race days they tend to make the track faster.


The easiest way to check this is to pick your lines , than go to the analysis window and click on the Original tab. There you will see the variant for every horse you chose a line for. Look for a variant that is out of the norm as compared to all the other horses' lines chosen.


When you see a line that is abnormal to the others such as -22 than go back and choose another line for that horse. For Proxy that would be L3.


In the DRF the average variant is 17 for tracks however in RDSS TrackMaster uses 0 as a base so -22 is extremely fast and abnormal. Avoid lines with extremely fast or slow variants.

Mitch44

RDSS is not using the -22 fast variant in adjusting that line to today's distance. With your Track Variant boundaries set to -15 and +15, RDSS starts by using a MAXIMUM of -15 as the adjustment from faster than norm (norm = 0).

FURTHER, with the Daily Track Variant set to the DEFAULT of 50%, RDSS will use HALF of the maximum DTV, in this case half of -15 or -7.5 to adjust that faster than average final and segmental times to something closer to a norm (just like it will do in similar fashion to all other horses' lines, whether fast or slow). This is the 'normalizing' part of the Sartin equalized, normalized, adjustment system. Depending on your settings (e.g. by using Defaults) RDSS is seeking to smooth out the wilder swings of Daily Track Variants - for all horses' pacelines alike.

Feel free to use that -22 variant line - RDSS is doing the adjustment work for you!

Use it as the Doc intended, or not! Though, also use common sense to weed out inappropriate lines - only, that -22 fast variant is NOT how the resulting velocities and all compounded factors and line scores are calculated.

Also, Laura, the caveat to not use lines where the horse finished beaten more than 7.5 lengths is not applicable to RDSS in Default Mode (Config settings) - only in Validator emulation mode. Use such lines with confidence knowing RDSS will not over credit such a horse by making its 3rd fraction look better than it really was (which it would do if it was behaving like Validator did).

Rather, RDSS will make that horse look as bad as it really was, finishing so many lengths behind (unless it was simply sucked along behind a fast pace of race, in which case its velocities and energy ratings per that line could be specious and should be discounted unless it actually made a MOVE against the pace somewhere in the race).

Just some tips related to the tools you are using.

Ted
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Old 04-14-2021, 06:48 AM   #14
Mitch44
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Ted your absolutely correct on how the adjustments are made in RDSS and for most users that's fine.

I myself disagree with that when it comes to variants that are to the extreme one way or the other. When compared to the other contenders and the range of those contenders this horse will still be over adjusted and falsely given an advantage. In this case making him faster than he really is. I.e.that is to say if their all in the range of 2 to 5 he would still be over advantaged verses other contenders.

For me its much more accurate to get another line for that horse and equalize them than to over adjust that line. Most horses can also be gotten by more than one line.

Compared to the norm of the contenders IMO is a better adjustment. However to each their own, I'm sure some are still using +50 & -50. I believe in taking every advantage I can get in this difficult game.


Mitch44

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Old 04-14-2021, 04:35 PM   #15
Mr.Pagine
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Late to the party on this; however, not sure why you would use a line where you are 4th by 4 lengths, and not the line of 2nd by 1 length.

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Old 04-14-2021, 05:02 PM   #16
Mitch44
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Hi Jon,

The answer is its not about BL or position as they can be deceptive. What's important is the POR and time.

The correct line for this horse is either L1 or L3. Line 1 was earned over an extremely fast track so it suspect to me. I would recommend new users to default to the best Preceptor line . In this case its L1. Without the program not sure which line I would settle on. I also consider other stuff when encountering extreme variants.

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Old 04-14-2021, 05:59 PM   #17
Ted Craven
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LoL - if in doubt (or for confirmation!), use SEVERAL lines of a horse to see if it makes any difference to whatever Oddsine you are focusing on (e.g. BLBL, Rx). Use them ALL for greater visual impact

In the case of #7 Proxy, it doesn't! Use any/all of the last 3 lines - same difference (= on top).

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Laura, your original analysis was perfect: you considered the effect of so much Early speed and demoted them from win; even as a concept - you might have been wrong and some E survived, but good chance NOT a horse with only sprint credentials, or one with as little ratings support as the rest of those Es.

Proxy was legit, according to its odds. But looking then towards the best credentialled OTE (Other Than Early) the eye falls naturally on #9 King Fury who has proven that he can pass horses and who typical energy disbursement profile is Late.

Anyway, between 3 Primary Contender horses one of which is 5/2 and the other 18-1, the bet mostly makes itself.

Jon, further to Mitch's reply to why Line 1 for Proxy when 4th beaten 4 lengths - it's because that race was a much faster PoR (which is what both Pereptor and Total Energy PoR shows). Because it was also a furlong longer than today, any fading in the stretch will be less applicable. To boot, the trouble line showing bumped at the start and had to race quite wide throughout to compensate, still finishing in the top half of the field while passing a few horses (Full Chart comments: "PROXY was bumped on both sides at the start, went three wide while rated on the first turn, came under urging inside the five-eighths, went three to four wide while ridden along on the far turn, was driven five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed kick.")

Even check the raw running times, comparing line 1 to line 3 at the same call points: much faster pace of race in the LA Derby last line. Hence the line RDSS chooses (though, per above, choose any of the last 3 lines).

As I wrote above, don't worry about the fast Daily Variant. The Original screen shows ... original data hence the -22 variant delivered from TrackMaster/Equibase. But RDSS is NOT using that -22 variant to equalize times. If I wanted to (or, if Doc had wanted to), I could have only ever shown on the Original screen the actual amount of DTV points which RDSS is using, which for the default Config settings would be -7.5 (max Fast variant value of -15, and then 50% of that). If that DTV said -7.5, no one would complain. But now you know how to know how much of the variant is actually being used.

And for a fuller explanation of how the Daily Variant points translate into time values (used to slow down - for a fast/negative variant - or speed up pace of race times to compensate for supposedly fast/slow track surfaces on the day), see this older post on How RDSS uses TrackMaster DTV points.

Ted
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Old 04-15-2021, 11:36 AM   #18
Mr.Pagine
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Best Perceptor

Mitch44 - thanks for that info.

I will work on my library of races, and see how I would have done.

Happy Punting,

Jon
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