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09-04-2018, 12:02 PM | #1 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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My Speculative Plays 09-04-18
I am of belief that the biggest anticipated R.O.I will come from
"Speculative" Plays. Conventional handicapping will not, for the most part, come up with these plays. I do believe that spending hours studying the numbers of the racing form or whatever instrument you choose to handicap with, will prove fruitless and in my opinion would be a complete waste of time and energy. I am not a proponent of betting for place or multiple win picks in a given race. On that note, I willl list what my conception of betting opportunities for todays PRX and TDN Please keep in mind that winning one or two "speculative" win bets on any given days will prove, in most cases, to be profitable. I realize I may lose all of my bets on any given day, but know that in the long run, I will show a profit. Race -1 TDN #7 CANT LOLLYGAG Race -5 TDN #7 OHIYO Race -6 TDN #2 SORCERER'S PRINCE Race -7 TDN #8 BACKSPLASH Race -8 TDN #2 MISS D IRISH ----------------------------- Race -2 PRX #6 PAINTER'S PRIDE Race -4 PRX #3 JONES TAXI Race -6 PRX #7 MR.LOUIS Race -7 PRX #3 TACTICAL PURSUIT (IRE) Race -9 PRX #3 BARB'S GRAY GIRL |
09-04-2018, 12:17 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
|
Good luck today.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
09-04-2018, 03:47 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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My look Race 7
Horse 1 Only has 1 useable Turf route Line 2 at 7.5 He is moving up in class and has no supporting turf races No line
Horse 2 He has 2 useable turf routes within 90 days Three-time winner I will use both lines 1 and 3 Horse 3 Outclassed in line 1 at Saratoga but he did run well early I will rate him of the + race against 100,000 stakes company in line 2 Horse 4 NO LINE Horse 5 Scr Horse 6 + race line 1 Broke maiden at PID, otherwise no supporting Turf Plus races Horse 7 No line Horse 8 no line Horse 9 Scr Horse 10 No line Horse 11 Both line 1 and 3 are + races within 90 days Horse 12 only has 1 win, and that was on the dirt He ran well in line 1 at 7.5 on the turf at 8/1 Since he has never run a supporting race on the turf I will downgrade his chance here I will pass, Contenders are 2 6 11 3 Last edited by Bill V.; 09-04-2018 at 03:52 PM. |
09-04-2018, 03:54 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Nice one
Bill
Good Job getting the place horse #3 I whiffed on the winner #1 only had the tricky 7.5 line to work with |
09-04-2018, 04:02 PM | #5 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
|
Thanks Bill and Tim
I had a nice winner at PRX - Race 6 In Race -7 my pick was bet down and placed. |
09-04-2018, 04:16 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
|
Nice hit in the 6th Bill.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
09-04-2018, 04:40 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
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Hi Bill V
How you feeling Bill. In race 7 I did use the 7.5 f race [l2] since it is within 1/2 f of todays' race. Additionally it was the lone e[rs] of my contenders with a late esp. He also ended up with the best 3rd fraction of my top 4 contenders. With Carmouche[ a speed rider and former leading rider here]in from NY to ride for Pletcher in r4 then staying to ride races 7 &8 for Juan Carlos Guerrero sealed the deal for me. My contenders were #1 L2 #2L3 #3 L3 #6 L1 #11 L2 I ending up betting #1 & 2 since I had other non Sartin knocks on the others. Winner paid $7.20 completed 0d5a7-92db7 PARX R7 $10WP #1/2 TOTAL BET $20 RET $ 36 +$16. Tim
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09-04-2018, 04:56 PM | #8 |
BetMix User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
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Tim, nice job in R7.
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09-04-2018, 07:45 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Good skill
Way to go Tim. Thanks Bill for the races
Nice work on the winner in race Good call Tim trusting the 7.5 distance Bill |
09-04-2018, 10:45 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
|
Bill it also had to do with something Glenn Connelly told me years ago which was never overlook a lone early or lone late in a race no matter with its' readouts looked like The same situation happened in race 8. The 3 was lone early and won paying $5.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
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