Exacta feedback needed

[RichieP]

If anyone can help me:

I am tracking an exacta method (multiple tracks, no models, profiles, no NYRA or Socal etc just the individual race at hand) using 2 bets per race. To give an idea of the volume in the last 5 days I have bet 108 races (216 wagers) and have connected 18 times with the ROI very positive.

My question is are there any players (profitable only please!) playing this way who could give me an idea of an expected hit rate. because it involves exactas and not just the winner do I need like hundreds and hundreds of races before the result becomes "meaningful"? 2 exacta bets per race, no more no less.

Also (for rebate players ) is it true that exacta wagers enable one to get a bigger rebate than those who play W/P/S? Any feedback (can be done via PM if need be) on a good rebate shop if I were to put say $1,500 a week (to start) through their windows ALL exacta play?

Thanks in advance for any and all help with my questions

Musica:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QljDNDxQLXc

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If anyone can help me:

(for rebate players ) is it true that exacta wagers enable one to get a bigger rebate than those who play W/P/S? Any feedback (can be done via PM if need be) on a good rebate shop if I were to put say $1,500 a week (to start) through their windows ALL exacta play?

Thanks in advance for any and all help with my questions

Musica:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QljDNDxQLXc

c ur PM

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If anyone can help me:

I am tracking an exacta method (multiple tracks, no models, profiles, no NYRA or Socal etc just the individual race at hand) using 2 bets per race. To give an idea of the volume in the last 5 days I have bet 108 races (216 wagers) and have connected 18 times with the ROI very positive.

My question is are there any players (profitable only please!) playing this way who could give me an idea of an expected hit rate. because it involves exactas and not just the winner do I need like hundreds and hundreds of races before the result becomes "meaningful"? 2 exacta bets per race, no more no less.

Also (for rebate players ) is it true that exacta wagers enable one to get a bigger rebate than those who play W/P/S? Any feedback (can be done via PM if need be) on a good rebate shop if I were to put say $1,500 a week (to start) through their windows ALL exacta play?

Thanks in advance for any and all help with my questions

Musica:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QljDNDxQLXc

Hi Richie,

Congratulations on your results. The only comment I have, which your question already suggests, is that a larger sample size would confirm that you're really onto something. William Benter, who did pretty well, has said that the results of his model stabilized after about 2k races, and others have suggested a similar range - 1500-3000 - as being valid for handicapping models. If you know anything about the Law of Large Numbers - the larger the sample size, the more likely the results converge at reality - it applies to handicapping as it does to any other form of gambling.

BTW, if your handicapping model is meant for universal application - at any track, rather than certain specific tracks, it would benefit you to include samples from as wide a range as possible.

I see you've also posted this on PA. I'm sure you'll get some useful answers there.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B. Jennet

[rmath]

Richie,
I donot know if this will help you with your inquiry or not but I do keep records
of all my plays at several tracks for win and place. Since I usually only play 6f. races the results may be skewed. At Aqu so far this year my top over my 2nd & 3rd have hit 9/31 for 214.80 on 1.00 tickets.Beu I had 12/35 for 182.30.
at FG 8/29 for 116.00. The total is 29/95 for a .305 hit rate with a return of
513.10 or 17.70per hit. I only keep records of my 6f plays , I rarely bet exactas.
I am not sure if this is what you need or not.
Doc alway said the top two win horses do not run 1,2 a high % of the time.
You might want to look at the counter energy horse as on of your plays, instead
of the top 3. My records donot contain this info.

[seattlesnake]

Richie,

Im not much into writing in detail but below is a sample to have a basic idea of percentages based on odds in relation to your betting choices..

You were not clear in what ranking your betting choices were so I've just dug up the fav and 2nd betting choices..

This was written by a gentleman by the name of Douglas J. Railey who was a researcher and race fraud investigator and he collaborated with Cynthia Publishing for this book... its called "Exacta Expose"...



Hope it helps...

Jess

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

c ur PM

Ernie
got the message and thank you man!

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Richie,

Congratulations on your results. The only comment I have, which your question already suggests, is that a larger sample size would confirm that you're really onto something. William Benter, who did pretty well, has said that the results of his model stabilized after about 2k races, and others have suggested a similar range - 1500-3000 - as being valid for handicapping models. If you know anything about the Law of Large Numbers - the larger the sample size, the more likely the results converge at reality - it applies to handicapping as it does to any other form of gambling.

BTW, if your handicapping model is meant for universal application - at any track, rather than certain specific tracks, it would benefit you to include samples from as wide a range as possible.

I see you've also posted this on PA. I'm sure you'll get some useful answers there.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B. Jennet

Yes the large numbers feedback is exactly what I got from 2 folks very knowledgeable over at PA. I appreciate your feedback and knowledge!

grazie!

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by seattlesnake

Richie,

Im not much into writing in detail but below is a sample to have a basic idea of percentages based on odds in relation to your betting choices..

You were not clear in what ranking your betting choices were so I've just dug up the fav and 2nd betting choices..

This was written by a gentleman by the name of Douglas J. Railey who was a researcher and race fraud investigator and he collaborated with Cynthia Publishing for this book... its called "Exacta Expose"...

Attachment 21099

Hope it helps...

Jess

Thanks Jess.
my choices have odds anywhere from 3/5 to 40/1 that is why it is going to take a ton of races to see if there is truly something here. I am doing it all in RDSS and while it is not mechanical enough to be programmed for auto line selection etc it is easily repeated looking at the horses pps so there will be consistency to the approach which counts big.

I also got real good heads ups on some rebate shops so thank you guys (and gals!)

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by rmath

Richie,
I donot know if this will help you with your inquiry or not but I do keep records
of all my plays at several tracks for win and place. Since I usually only play 6f. races the results may be skewed. At Aqu so far this year my top over my 2nd & 3rd have hit 9/31 for 214.80 on 1.00 tickets.Beu I had 12/35 for 182.30.
at FG 8/29 for 116.00. The total is 29/95 for a .305 hit rate with a return of
513.10 or 17.70per hit. I only keep records of my 6f plays , I rarely bet exactas.
I am not sure if this is what you need or not.
Doc always said the top two win horses do not run 1,2 a high % of the time.
You might want to look at the counter energy horse as on of your plays, instead
of the top 3. My records do not contain this info.

Thanks Richard your numbers are quite good man! Though I do not have the data in front of me MY results using the "CE" horse in exactas were mixed at best.