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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 04-22-2017, 11:32 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Handicapping Blind - Using Velocity PoH/TPR/Primary screens

Yesterday, I decided to experiment out of my comfort zone with RDSS a little bit. The "Original" screen (your traditional "raw" pacelines) provides a bevy of information to the horseplayer: position, beaten lengths, moves (early, middle and late), race class, final odds, speed ratings, DTV... I can go on...) but how do you synthesize that information to narrow a race down to its fine tuning? Some here use the Paceline Manual guidelines, including the +, 0 and (+) form cycle analysis for charting where a horse stands in its current cycle. Some use a firm set of rules governing specific conditions where they will accept a line for usage. Others use tools such as APV% and Class Rating to guide their decisions.

As for my handicapping, I have used practically a combination of many factors. Right now, I seem to have settled on rating races as +, 0 and (+), while using the program's Perceptor ratings, TE, TPR Early/Late graphing in tandem with Velocity PoH with ESP and %Median. It has worked for me wonderfully. The bottom line has been kind to me in April, in part due to a tune up I did with Mitch44 at the end of last month, which steered me in this direction somewhat. One thing I cannot seem to get past in my head, is rating races that while TE and Perceptor and Velocity and ESP/%Med may rate it as a top race or one of the top races, traditional analysis and thinking dictate that it's a weak or poor race to use. I have always been in the mindset that the horse "should show something" noteworthy in their past performances so that it gets me interested in using it. This is where "old school" and "new school" tend to clash. "Old school" dictates that the horse didn't show anything significant, yet "new school" tools indicate otherwise, i.e. hidden form/speed/class invisible to those using traditional PPs or methods. It's a conundrum that I struggle to come to grips with, despite the fact that no one thing ever wins 100% of the time.

So yesterday, I decided to take a couple of races, ignore the "Original" screen, and allow my decisions to take hold based on my analysis of the Velocity PoH screen (using the F1-F2-F3, SC, Decel, %Med and ESP), the Early/Late Graphing (based on the TPR), and the Primary screen (Perceptor, VDC%, Primary Factors % from best).

Here is an example of such a race. This was yesterday's 2nd from Tampa Bay. Here are the "traditional" PPs for the winner, Buch Of Daisies (#1):

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Based on its most recent paceline raw, I would be hard pressed to go back any further. It is simply a poor performance last out in this class at a similar distance to today's race. However, that last race was 49 days ago, so the horse is really starting a new cycle with today (yesterday's) race. So now, we do some digging. Here are the Velocity PoH and Primary screens:

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Immediately, the first thing I notice in the Primary screen is that this was this horse's worst performance from a Perceptor standpoint. The Primary Factors %'s are at or near the bottom in all categories. So, using this paceline would be incorrect, as it will not do this horse any justice whatsoever. Also, looking at Velocity, that horse ran an "E" ESP at a 69.8 %Med, meaning this one wasted a good chunk of energy in the 1st 2/3rds of the race. If you look at its visual run style from that race, it wasn't even close to the lead. It was having to go fast to try and keep up with that day's pace, and fell on its head in the 3rd fraction. Just an overall "bad" performance.

Line 2 would be a "non-comparable" performance. It was 1m40yds. However, measuring this horse against itself, it showed its best Turn Time (TT) ability, and ran a 68.9 %Med ("EP" ESP).

Line 3 is a 5.5F race in today's class, a furlong less than today's race. It was also 93 days ago, but was the start of that one's more recent form cycle before this recent break. First thing I notice is that this was that runner's best Perceptor in recent times, only 2.8% worse than its September maiden breaker. Its Primary Factor %'s are only a percentage or two off of its best race. I then look at the Velocity, and it ran its best F1 and 2nd best F3, TS and Decel that day. Its ESP was a "P" and %Med was 68.7. Looking at that and its other ESPs and %Meds, this horse is capable of harnessing its energy effectively when it runs well. On TE, it was its best ever (166.4). Since it ran well fresh off that race, I chose it as my "representative" paceline.

Looking at E/L graphs, it shows more Early than Late, but even its early races are not off the charts, so to me, using its late races (which were small sticks) was OK.

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Here is how it matched up on BL/BL:

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Based on odds, and a contentious Primary LS and BL/BL, #2 was worth a Win bet at 12-1. Here was the chart for this race:

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Those two "awful" performances built up your price with this one. It is not a horse that will be had easily. This is where creative thinking with RDSS comes into play. Answering questions such as "how will it handle running off this current layoff?" and determining the "correct" line for the start of a new cycle are crucial in being able to sniff this runner out. Not to mention that 3YOs often can and do improve without warning this time of year, so you have to be ready.

I would love to hear what others are thinking.
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Old 04-22-2017, 11:36 AM   #2
Jeebs
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Disclaimer: I am NOT suggesting that one should handicap without the "Original" screen. You need to have a grasp on the horse's history when handicapping a race. After all, this is the tool (raw pacelines) that most of the racetrack competition will be utilizing, so you had better know why a horse is being bet down, taking money, or being ignored in the wagering, as well as other factors such as class, speed, etc. If it sounds like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth, I assure you that I am not. Raw pacelines are still a tool that should be utilized, but its emphasis is one that is certainly overrated when one has access to more advanced handicapping tools.
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Old 04-22-2017, 01:10 PM   #3
Mitch44
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The preceptor is a tool that is generally under used. In this case its best preceptor's are at distances of 5.0 to 6.0 F which is an indication of where the horse should be placed. It also has failed at longer than 6F twice. it appears in those two races they attempted to change his running style and rate the horses which he didn't take kindly to and resulted in its worse races .
Claimed in next to last the new trainer will probably revert back to its normal running style if he knows what he's doing. BTW its not unusual for a smart trainer to experiment with a young horse to find its best dis., surface etc. Of course some other questions here are how good is this trainer with claims and how has its works been with these last two races etc. Some train at farms away from the track etc. however most don't have that access. Lt1 keeps a record of any trainer that wins off a layoff therefore he only gets fooled once. Good PP's can be a great aide for this kind of additional information.

The bottom line here is to do a through analysis of your horses. Use the tools you have to their advantage. There are so many reasons for a poor performance so don't get locked into last line. Use a consistent procedure!! Believe it or not there are trainers that place a horse wrong for 5,6 and more races in a row. There are a variety of reasons for this such as no races being written for what the horses needs, owners afraid to lose it so keep too far up in class and of course being incompetent being the biggest. This stuff all has an effect on the pace line you pick. You need to apply a consistent procedure and where ever that takes you is where you go.

The same way you get the horse that pays $5.60 is the same way you get the one that pays $26.40. BTW Jeebs nice one, congrats.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 04-22-2017 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 04-22-2017, 04:46 PM   #4
Bill V.
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YOUR Method is important - consistency

hello Jeebs

First off, congrats on the very nice winner.
Secondly Thank you for explaining your look at this race,
Third Thank you for asking how we all use our toolboxes to win with the Sartin Methodology.

Unless you are a Hat type matcher ,and you can visualize and
organize the race in your minds eye just from the total PP's of each horse's
ability You have to have a pace line
If we use Sartin Programs we have to imput something,

Bottom line Its all about the conenders and the match up of the race based on selecting contenders and entering representative pacelines
To me the key to winning is to find a comfortable consistent method
It really is vital to find a comfortable set of guidelines
and stay consistent.

Yesterday's first two races at Tampa are a great example of how it is important to be consistent,

I did not work race 2, I worked race 1 because you posted it in the selections area , I worked the race but based on my approach
of using Phase 1. I found the race unplayable and passed
The winner who I marked as a non contender won at 10/1

here is a link to my post

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...12&postcount=7


What I would like to do is show how doing the exact same steps
from race 1 I would have got the winner in race 2 at even a better 12/1 price

Race 1 and Race 2 are worked the same but the conditions of each race are different , So I do make some decisions differently based on the conditions of the race.
Race 1 was for 3+ males state breds and race 2 is for open
company 3 year old only Fillies.

I have stacked the two races together Race 2 wll be in BLUE TYPE

Race 1 8.2 furlongs 3 + CL s8 Non 3 L
State bred non winners of 3 races lifetime

Race 2 6.5 CL16000 3 year olds only Fillies

Race 1
step 1
Top 5 TPR last line
4,5,7,6,2
Fulcrum POR 85.5 Tandem horses 4 and 5

Race 2
Step 1
Top 5 TPR last line
4 2 7 6 5
Fulcrum POR 79.0 Horse 4



Notes

Horse 1
Private Sale Sustained Only shows 1 win in 24 races . All its shown races are sprints Line 1 is it's only win . a MC 8 @7 furlongs against a 81 POR
Non Contender

Race 2
Horse 1
Buch Of Daisies Presser 2 for 6
Line 1 is a 0 race at 7 furlongs Its the last race of that form cycle
Line 2 is excused , Its also a 0 race is a non comparable route
8.2 furlongs Line 3 is a recent + paceline . Today starts a new form cycle
after 49 day rest , Line 3 is also after a 47 day rest so I can rate it


Horse 2
Trismen Early 2 for 8 lifetime Both wins came on the turf
Morning line favorite at 2/1 and I have no line Danger !!

Horse 2
Phenix Presser 2 for 11 Shows no recent plus pace lines sprinting


Horse 3
Manny Blue Boy NF 2 for 34 No recent form against open company

Horse 3
Playful Early Presser 1 for 6 Its only plus paceline was it's maiden win
214 days ago It showed nothing in line 1 after a 160 day layoff
all other Lines are over 200 days old and as a 2 year old
no line


Horse 4
Ten Guitars Sustained 2 for 18. Line 1 is a recent
plus paceline 20 days ago 3/1 ml contender Fulcrum horse with the 5

Horse 4
Perennis Early Presser 1 for 8 Line 1 is a slow pace wire to wire
maiden claiming 16000 win line 42 days ago. Today starts a new form cycle
first try against winners. Fulcrum horse


Horse 5
Arangol Sustained 2 for 46 Line 1 is a recent
plus paceline 20 days ago co fulcrum with horse 4

Horse 5
Natchez Pass Sustained Presser 1 for 11 Morning line favorite
2/1 line 3 is a recent plus paceline 71 days ago , Exact same conditions as today
Line 1 and 2 are turf routes
Line 3 is the line


Horse 6
Brays Secret Early Presser 2 for 15 No recent plus pacelines routing
Matter of fact the only plus race is line 3 at 7 furlongs,
7 furlong races generally are adjusted too fast on the EPR and races at 8.2 furlongs also are adjusted funky,
this is a bad mix so i avoid red sticks over 20 No Line but will be a issue

Horse 6
G.I. Girl Early 1 for 6 Line 1 is a recent plus paceline at the exact same conditions as today. Today starts a new form cycle No workouts since last race 28 days ago
Line 1



Horse 7
Unbridled Majesty Sustained Presser 2 for 35 Line 1 rates well relatively to this group on EPR and TPR but It is a 0 race.
It comes out of the same race as the 3, 4 and 5. Line 2 and 3 are plus lines. I just can't get past line 1

Horse 7
Babie Monster Early Presser 1 for 11 Line 2 is a MC16000 win line
Its recent 49 days ago sprinting here at tampa but at 7 furlongs
Line 1 is excused, It is a turf route Now works since last race 28 days ago
Line 2 is the line



That is it . I have marked my running styles and pace lines for my contenders
This is an open 16000 Claimer so horse 1 and 2 have 2 wins the other fillies
only have won their maiden races

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Unlike in race 1 where I had too many issues
in race 2 using the exact same logic and guidelines for contenders and pace lines I would be confident to work the race

Now I will go to the PMTR /TPR screen
well there is no doubt the 1 is a sure bet #1
Top 3 EPR Top 2 LPR Top TPR

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Old 04-22-2017, 06:20 PM   #5
Jeebs
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Thank you Mitch and Bill

I feel that both Bill and Mitch hit the nail square on the head. Consistently applying the tools available to us - and being comfortable using them is paramount to any amount of success one has with this Methodology in the long run. Some of us have been with the Methodology for ages and are firmly entrenched in our ways, while others are still trying or learning a way. I would put myself squarely in the "still learning" category. In reality, we should all be still learning from one another.

Mick eloquently put it in his Glossary post that once he realized that he was losing races as often as he had been winning them, that he had better get to know the nuts and bolts of the tools that he is using, rather than treat it as a "Black Box" method of beating the races - which RDSS or any Sartin program clearly is not. It is one thing to use Perceptor totals and such blindly, but another to see how they all intertwine with one another, hence why I have been spending some more time getting to know the Velocity screen and acquaint myself with ESPs and %Med. Like anything, practice, practice, practice. A lot of this journey has been learning to trust my instincts over second-guessing. Whenever I am faced with a tough decision and my initial thought on a line seems to be conflicted with a different line that is similar but not quite the same, I am sticking more with the initial instinct, and it is paying dividends.

If one chooses to apply an approach that de-emphasizes the raw race visual (i.e. PPs), they had better be comfortable selecting pacelines that in the raw, may be visually unaesthetic to the naked eye, but stand out with the other tools factored in. Same with following a specific set of criteria. Those handicappers interested in the FTL school of Sartin handicapping had best develop a stomach for watching the occasional 200-day layoff runner storm home as much the best, or watching that router win off a series of recent sprint lines with no recent routes to support it, otherwise you will never have a shot at success employing that strategy. If you are a strict interpreter of the Class Rating and APV% tools, you had better come to grips with the fact that there will be times where today's outcome will defy that logic, otherwise you will have a hard time trusting the power of those tools over the long haul.

It has been said over and over and over again, "Nothing ever works 100% of the time - Nothing!" If one accepts that fact of life, it will help during the inevitable tough times that come with the variance factor in this game. It is not a horse racing example, but one from baseball. I recently watched a video online featuring Pete Rose and others about hitting. When Pete would get into a slump, he would never change his swing. Instead, he would either change his footing in the batter's box or choke up on the bat, but the swing would always stay the same. Once you develop a pattern, it can be exploited, so you had better adapt to the situation. Unfortunately for some, adapting to a new situation means expanding the strike zone, swinging at balls that are outside, swinging at first pitches rather than evaluating the pitcher's tendencies, etc, etc. Anyone on this board who is a Mets fan and has watched Jose Reyes as of late should relate to this example.

Not surprisingly, the same can be said of horseplayers. Once something stops working after awhile, we have a tendency to alter our play. Like how Pete Rose will change his footing or choke up, handicappers should probably scale back their wagers so that when the winners begin jumping off the page again, they are in a better financial footing to let'em rip when the trend is our friend. Instead, some of us doubt our process and tools and begin to make changes. Subconsciously, we begin to deviate from what approach got us to where we were. We begin to select pacelines that clash with the previously working approach. We escalate our wagers to "catch up" to what we lost. We may even interpret the BLT/C as gospel and go "brain dead", letting the computer do all the work. When things get worse, suddenly, we forget how to be successful. It takes soul searching, maybe even some time off or as tough as it may be, getting back to basics. It is usually the latter that lays the foundation for rediscovering the previous success.

Anyway, I have gone longer than I anticipated. But I hope people take some very important lessons from this thread. We all have something that we bring to the table here and it can only help the community as a whole.
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Old 04-24-2017, 11:42 AM   #6
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Nice post Tim. Love the baseball analogy. Anyone who has spoken to or listen to Tom Brohamer will hear him talking about playing the percentages. I do it all the time knowing that I will be right 8 or 9 times out 10 such as not using a lifetime best race by a horse 5 or older. When I get bit I just move on and continue to do the same thing the next time. We must always be consistent in our approach win or lose.
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Old 04-24-2017, 12:29 PM   #7
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Nice post Tim. Love the baseball analogy. Anyone who has spoken to or listen to Tom Brohamer will hear him talking about playing the percentages. I do it all the time knowing that I will be right 8 or 9 times out 10 such as not using a lifetime best race by a horse 5 or older. When I get bit I just move on and continue to do the same thing the next time. We must always be consistent in our approach win or lose.
Tim G
The tight rope IMO is balancing consistency with flexibility. If your consistent approach looks like it will have problems with a particular race, you have the option to pass. The best money managers do this frequently. It also goes a long way in mitigating a losing streak, because you're demanding a premium situation to play and not one where the matchups are difficult to verbalize with any level of confidence. If your consistent approach basically has the odds-on favorite dominating the matchup, you would either pass the race, or find a way to leverage the situation, perhaps in the exacta or DD pools to turn that odds-on into say a 4-1 proposition. If your consistent approach gives you a top tier horse that runs counter to the current track bias based on a profile or visual observation, do you stick with and live/die by your numbers - bias be damned? Or do you trust your eyes/profile and mentally upgrade the 2nd/3rd tier horse(s) fitting the profile and wager accordingly?

These are all questions that we have to answer for ourselves at any given point in time playing this great game. Once we answer them enough times, we should have a clear answer and can use that knowledge to tackle any situation we may encounter.
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Old 04-24-2017, 12:58 PM   #8
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I have found that if one keeps a track model and or profile that one needs to beware of changing situations. I myself reevaluate after 2 races in a row run counter to what has been happening. Tom B addresses this type of situation and if adopts the rest of us should also. In the last several days there has been a distinct inside bias with the winner of most races being in post positions 1-4. Most have been logical contenders but several have not been. I shifted my play to my inside contenders first provided all things were equal and the price was right. Today is a new day so we will see.
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Old 04-24-2017, 01:09 PM   #9
Mitch44
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When you get a horse like this with a question of coming off a layoff etc. the two horse bet takes some of that unknown out of the equation. That and its odds make the bet worth while with your two horse bet. Those two things put the percentages on your side.

This horse isn't a far reach also if one looks at its ranking (BLBL, primary line score etc.) No need here to bet only one horse here or hide horses. Neither of which I believe in. Hell you can hide low odds horses etc. and make the program come up with whatever you want but was he a contender before that in the read outs?
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Old 04-24-2017, 01:15 PM   #10
Mitch44
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Read what the definition of preceptor and see what's in it and you'll better understand why its a powerful tool that far too many ignore. It contains several factors not just one and at one time was all the Sartin used back in the day and still appears in the readouts that most ignore.

I'm not giving away what's in it as that's too easy. Look it up and you'll get more out of it. Not as good as BLBL but pretty damn good and a great tool for other purposes.
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