Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-14-2014, 09:25 AM   #1
CaptDon100
Grade 2
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
Finding the Fulcrum

I was following another post yesterday and wanted to try to find the fulcrum of the race today.
The fulcrum contenders are 5-6-7-8-9
The 9 looks to be the best fulcrum but in the PP's is shows only one race with that pace. The 5 looks to have ran that pace in the last 4 lines
So I have the Fulcrum Horse as #5
Don
Attached Images
   
CaptDon100 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 10:31 AM   #2
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,586
Fulcrum

I do it a little differently. I use the adjusted EPR numbers
Because I can't do track to track adjustments the dtv adjustments

I come up with the 8 horse

Name:  horse 8 Fly.PNG
Views: 605
Size:  119.6 KB


Setting the fulcrum pace of race as per Pace Makes The Race
I have the fulcrum as a 93 EPR That means I am looking for horses who have finished competitive = less than 5 BL at the second call and final time against a 93 EP


Last line for every horse TPR phase 1 numbers

Name:  redoalllines.PNG
Views: 609
Size:  57.1 KB

Looking at this screen which is the last line for every horse.
The fastest EP is horse 1 but horse 1 is not the fulcrum because it was not competitive against at the final time.
The next highest is horse 10, but horse 10 also does not make it
because of beaten lengths at the final time, nor does the next
best horse # 2. I just will keep going down the EPR rankings till I find the horse who ran the fastest second call EPR and finished within 5 of the leaders at the second call and final time.

In this race that would land me on horse 8.
It ran a 91.5 adjusted EPR at CRC in the last line
It was 2 lengths behind so the fulcrum pace of race
in the Feb 7 race at CRC was 93.5
Now I need to see if the 93.5 competitive finish was not atypical for horse 8. and I see that it is not
Horse 8 has run competitively against a 93.5 EPR in other races
So my fulcrum in today's race is 93.5 or about a 45.2 raw

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 11:14 AM   #3
CaptDon100
Grade 2
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
How did you get 93.5 from horse #2. Not sure why it wouldn't be 91.5 from horse #8. Are you looking for the highest EPR and LPR with no more than 5 beaten lengths from 2nd call to finish? The video you made shows using the Original Screen?
Thanks Don
Attached Images
  
CaptDon100 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 11:16 AM   #4
Segwin
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 597
This is from one of Bill V. previous posts on the subject.

The rules for the fulcrum horse were set by Michel Pizzolla who was part of the original group for a spell.

According to the book Pace Makes The Race pg, 104 M. Pizzolla

" First of all, the fulcrum pace is always taken from a horse's last pace line.
Always. This is a rule as far as I am concerned. I get comments often at
seminars about this, and I point out to the person making the comment that
since I am the person who came up with the concept of the fulcrum pace, I
am entitled to have the final say on what is or isn't a fulcrum pace ! Always
take the fulcrum from the last line. Even if a horse typically runs faster and
in its last race a runaway rhinoceros interfered with this horse causing it to
run a second call ten seconds slower than usual, use another horse: always
take the fulcrum pace from the horse's last paceline. You may ask why I am
repeating this so often and why I am so insistent about this. When I first
presented the concept of the fulcrum pace, I had several exceptions to using
the last pace line in favor of a faster second call time further back in the horses's past performance.

However. what I have found was although those techniques were better at predicting the actual pace of race
and which horse or horses would be setting that pace,
it would tend to setting faster fulcrum paces and
consequently eliminating too many legitimate contenders."


Bill V. made a video about it as well as Because I Can Jim. Site search for them and watch both.

If you don't have an original copy of Pace Makes The Race you should try to find one - makes for a great read.

All the best.
__________________
Terry
Segwin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 11:30 AM   #5
CaptDon100
Grade 2
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
Thanks Segwin, I am using that post and the video, and it is a good post on understanding it. When I started doing a few of them, I started having problems.
Thanks
CaptDon100 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 01:50 PM   #6
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,586
horse 2

Hi Don and thank you Terry
Don the 2 is not the fulcrum because it was beaten by 14



I am getting bombarded with emails and pms which is nice,
about why i'm using the adjusted EPRs but in the video I used the original
raw numbers

As Terry brings up RDSS has done all the phase 1 adjustments for me.
Do I know how much slower a track like CRC is than Tampa ? No
Do I know if there is a track class difference from CRC to Tampa? No
Do I know the adjustment from a 18 DTV to a 8 DTV ? No
Do I know the distance adjustments from 6.5 to 5.5 at CRC and Tampa ?
No.

But RDSS/Trackmaster does and as long as I believe what I see
( I do) why should I venture to guess what these adjustments are.

Hope that helpsIts good to ask why so always do so
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 02:51 PM   #7
Bill V.
Grade 1
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad
Posts: 8,586
Por

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
In this race that would land me on horse 8.
It ran a 91.5 adjusted EPR at CRC in the last line
It was 2 lengths behind so the fulcrum pace of race
in the Feb 7 race at CRC was 93.5
Now I need to see if the 93.5 competitive finish was not atypical for horse 8. and I see that it is not
Horse 8 has run competitively against a 93.5 EPR in other races
So my fulcrum in today's race is 93.5 or about a 45.2 raw

Bill
So after the race we learn that the pace of race was a 45.6 or 45.3 in 5's
The 8 was a none factor. What the fulcrum does show is what the
pace of race a horse can compete against. Micheal Pizzolla's method
told us a horse better be able to compete against a 93 EPR

Here is the winner # 9 Yes indeed the winner and the fulcrum pace in this race # 7 both can run competitively against a 93 (45.2 45.3) POR

Name:  competitivly results.PNG
Views: 596
Size:  178.1 KB

Name:  winner #9 fulcrum andrace winner.PNG
Views: 598
Size:  121.7 KB


Name:  winning guidelines 7.PNG
Views: 590
Size:  122.9 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2014, 03:39 PM   #8
CaptDon100
Grade 2
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
Thanks Bill, So after you find the fulcrum horse, You than go through the match up. Should the fulcrum horse fall in your top 4 tiers.
Thanks
Don
CaptDon100 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2016, 10:42 AM   #9
MikeB
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post

Step 2
Find The Fulcrum = find the best EPR of a horse from the last line that is within 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time
Fulcrum 80
Bill:

It is not clear to me what you are doing with the fulcrum after you identify it. In this write up, you find it and then don't mention it again. Are you using it like the projected pace figure in the Match Up to qualify contenders?

I have the 2nd edition of Pace Makes the Race, and the authors dropped the term "fulcrum" (as well as Michael Pizzolla) in that edition. In Handicapping Magic, Pizzolla uses the fulcrum horse as the bench mark for pace figures which are hand calculated for each horse.

Thanks
MikeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2016, 12:46 PM   #10
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 1,088
MikeB: I never knew there was a second edition and only have the first. Nice to know.

I'm not surprised he was left out of the 2nd edition as my understanding was the Doc booted him for supposedly stealing.

To my knowledge they didn't believe in the fulcrum and used Fr's from different horses to come up with the match up. I.e, the first Fr from one horse and 2nd Fr from another to come up with the match up & Dream Race.

Jimmy looked at all of a horses lines to come up with his black magic / voodoo hcp., not just the last line or a fulcrum from that line.
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fulcrum Pace Query - 2014 Derby Stakes Prep Races DocSartinLearner RDSS2 / FAQ's 7 03-30-2014 06:30 PM
Finding the Fulcrum CaptDon100 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 7 02-14-2014 03:39 PM
Setting the fulcrum POR Bill V. RDSS2 / FAQ's 11 02-12-2014 10:41 AM
Need Help Finding the Win Bet CaptDon100 Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 58 12-20-2013 09:06 AM
55% Solution Exacta/Quinella Profits - Finding the Place Horse Ted Craven Manuals 0 03-22-2010 03:31 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:16 PM.