Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Selections
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-09-2018, 10:16 AM   #1
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
MVR 2nd - 1/9/18

Let's wake the Selections forum up today.

Name:  mvr2.jpg
Views: 204
Size:  76.3 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 11:00 AM   #2
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Paceline selection

Name:  pacelines.png
Views: 177
Size:  49.4 KB

If you're using Equibase/Trackmaster data (RDSS, Val, Spec), beware of the last line on #2 FRANCO. According to CJ from TimeformUS, MVR's track was frozen solid that day. Hence the extreme -42 variant. I would take any times from that day with a grain of salt.

Last edited by Jeebs; 01-09-2018 at 11:16 AM. Reason: Received a good explanation from CJ at TFUS
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 11:04 AM   #3
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Pace of Horse screen

Name:  pace.png
Views: 160
Size:  55.5 KB

#1A, 2 and 5 are at the bottom on Total Energy and are deemed non-contenders at this point.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 11:20 AM   #4
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
BLBL and Rx look

BL/BL indicates that #8 is a solid longshot in the top tier, and is tied with #7 in V/DC. As is usually the case, the top tiers are considered equal, with only mutuel as the separating factor.

Name:  blbl.png
Views: 180
Size:  52.3 KB

Rx3 is high on the 4-7, the two ML favorites.

Name:  rxscreen.png
Views: 169
Size:  44.7 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 12:26 PM   #5
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
6 is scratched

With the #6 out, BL and Rx change slightly:

Name:  revisedbl.png
Views: 161
Size:  63.5 KB

Name:  revisedrx.png
Views: 163
Size:  58.2 KB
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:02 PM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Bill

Hi Tim

Thanks for posting this race. I get the top 3 ML choices
2 4 7

The 2 ran a monster TPR and Speed rating in line 1 He probably wont repeat that effort here today.

I will check the tote board

Here is my TPR screen

Name:  274.PNG
Views: 148
Size:  53.4 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:12 PM   #7
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
MvR

Because of the odds will take a shot with 4-7

bob
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:12 PM   #8
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Two-horse Win bet 3-4
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:19 PM   #9
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
A tough race:
# 1 L2 Has had several shots at this level without a win.
# 1 A hasn’t disgraced its self, improving 4 yr. old withonly one fast, dirt route and won,
top ability unknown.
#2 L 2 very consistent at both sprints and routes, L1 variant-42 so unusable however the horse still won so it hides its true ability. Anunknown factor with insufficient data.
#3 L3 is an unknown factor. 30 of 31 races are on the turf or all weather surfaces, tries dirt today, can route and class is about right,goes from a 4% trainer to a 20 % trainer so improvement should be expected.
# 4 L 4 very consistent horse who always gives best effort and has very consistent SR
#5 L 4 an unknown factor who has improved in last two fromLasix and top is unknown. Can rate used a route turf to give it every chance.Could upset at a price. Only 1 dirt route & prior to L improvement.
# 6 L 2 trainer poor after a layoff, has had 4 tries at this level and failed, non-contender
# 7 L 2 trainer 22% off a layoff and also drops in class today while returning to a route.
The unknown factors in this race make it a tough one, not a race to send it in.I’ll be looking at them for an upset but have get very good odds. They essentially will be a save bet only. Best two & highest odds of1A, 2, 3, & 5 If a contest race I would play the two best odds of the unknowns.Otherwise my order is 2-7 which I’ll bet. Will post my bets.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 01-09-2018 at 01:22 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2018, 01:28 PM   #10
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
I all fairness I just went to bet this race and found it had already gone off. I still thought there was plenty of time. Takes too long to write this stuff up. I won't take credit for it but you can see my line picking and analysis. Hope you had it even through the mutual was small.
Mitch44.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:04 PM.