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Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card |
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01-09-2018, 10:16 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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MVR 2nd - 1/9/18
Let's wake the Selections forum up today.
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01-09-2018, 11:00 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Paceline selection
If you're using Equibase/Trackmaster data (RDSS, Val, Spec), beware of the last line on #2 FRANCO. According to CJ from TimeformUS, MVR's track was frozen solid that day. Hence the extreme -42 variant. I would take any times from that day with a grain of salt. Last edited by Jeebs; 01-09-2018 at 11:16 AM. Reason: Received a good explanation from CJ at TFUS |
01-09-2018, 11:04 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Pace of Horse screen
#1A, 2 and 5 are at the bottom on Total Energy and are deemed non-contenders at this point. |
01-09-2018, 11:20 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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BLBL and Rx look
BL/BL indicates that #8 is a solid longshot in the top tier, and is tied with #7 in V/DC. As is usually the case, the top tiers are considered equal, with only mutuel as the separating factor.
Rx3 is high on the 4-7, the two ML favorites. |
01-09-2018, 12:26 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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6 is scratched
With the #6 out, BL and Rx change slightly:
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01-09-2018, 01:02 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Bill
Hi Tim
Thanks for posting this race. I get the top 3 ML choices 2 4 7 The 2 ran a monster TPR and Speed rating in line 1 He probably wont repeat that effort here today. I will check the tote board Here is my TPR screen |
01-09-2018, 01:12 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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MvR
Because of the odds will take a shot with 4-7
bob |
01-09-2018, 01:12 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Two-horse Win bet 3-4
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01-09-2018, 01:19 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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A tough race:
# 1 L2 Has had several shots at this level without a win. # 1 A hasn’t disgraced its self, improving 4 yr. old withonly one fast, dirt route and won, top ability unknown. #2 L 2 very consistent at both sprints and routes, L1 variant-42 so unusable however the horse still won so it hides its true ability. Anunknown factor with insufficient data. #3 L3 is an unknown factor. 30 of 31 races are on the turf or all weather surfaces, tries dirt today, can route and class is about right,goes from a 4% trainer to a 20 % trainer so improvement should be expected. # 4 L 4 very consistent horse who always gives best effort and has very consistent SR #5 L 4 an unknown factor who has improved in last two fromLasix and top is unknown. Can rate used a route turf to give it every chance.Could upset at a price. Only 1 dirt route & prior to L improvement. # 6 L 2 trainer poor after a layoff, has had 4 tries at this level and failed, non-contender # 7 L 2 trainer 22% off a layoff and also drops in class today while returning to a route. The unknown factors in this race make it a tough one, not a race to send it in.I’ll be looking at them for an upset but have get very good odds. They essentially will be a save bet only. Best two & highest odds of1A, 2, 3, & 5 If a contest race I would play the two best odds of the unknowns.Otherwise my order is 2-7 which I’ll bet. Will post my bets. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 01-09-2018 at 01:22 PM. |
01-09-2018, 01:28 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I all fairness I just went to bet this race and found it had already gone off. I still thought there was plenty of time. Takes too long to write this stuff up. I won't take credit for it but you can see my line picking and analysis. Hope you had it even through the mutual was small.
Mitch44. |
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