Auto paceline templates /Betting real money testing it

[RichieP]

I know Ted is working on a paceline selector template for the new release. Dont know any more about it (honest!).

I put together a 3 tiered template and figured I'd test it with real money making 2 buck win bets using the TS conditional settings of 9/2 odds minimum at 0 mtp.

The results you see reflect 7 days of betting and just shy of 200 win bets as the other days I am elsewhere away from racing.

Only thing is my "template" is hand picking right now(hours of work looking at ALL tracks) and not automated so I am hoping the template will help in this area.

I for one am in the minority I guess as I definitely DO want a first look at the races I am interested in. But I want the look to be MINE and nothing else. Not interested in last race, best of last 3, best ever etc etc.

I have my own "rules" and they simply involve:
TPR screen
Days since last race
Blf
surface (dirt,poly,turf)
structure

Here is hoping the new version RDSS will be able to help

screenshot shows my win bets for the month of October using the autoline/contender/TS conditional bets at 9/2 minimum odds with 0 mtp.

I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by RichieP

I know Ted is working on a paceline selector template for the new release. Dont know any more about it (honest!).

I put together a 3 tiered template and figured I'd test it with real money making 2 buck win bets using the TS conditional settings of 9/2 odds minimum at 0 mtp.

The results you see reflect 7 days of betting and just shy of 200 win bets as the other days I am elsewhere away from racing.

Only thing is my "template" is hand picking right now(hours of work looking at ALL tracks) and not automated so I am hoping the template will help in this area.

I for one am in the minority I guess as I definitely DO want a first look at the races I am interested in. But I want the look to be MINE and nothing else. Not interested in last race, best of last 3, best ever etc etc.

I have my own "rules" and they simply involve:
TPR screen
Days since last race
Blf
surface (dirt,poly,turf)
structure

Here is hoping the new version RDSS will be able to help

screenshot shows my win bets for the month of October using the autoline/contender/TS conditional bets at 9/2 minimum odds with 0 mtp.

I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man.

Hi Rich .
Is this 7 days or 17 days
Also your rebates would help pay for 7 or 17 days of data files from every
track.. RdSS is not cheap. What is the cost for "Bill from Brooklyn"
to be able to download all thse tracks ??

and what approximatly is your handicapping time worth

Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Rich .
Is this 7 days or 17 days
Also your rebates would help pay for 7 or 17 days of data files from every
track.. RdSS is not cheap. What is the cost for "Bill from Brooklyn"
to be able to download all thse tracks ??

and what approximately is your handicapping time worth

Bill

Hey Bill
The bets were made over 7 days this month.

What I meant about rebates is this: at smaller tracks (Mnr,Rp,Ct, Zia etc etc) there is a point where betting larger wagers actually has you betting against yourself in a way.

Let's make an assumption for discussion purposes ok? Lets say I can easily(assuming RDSS template gives me what I need saving countless hours of manual input etc) bet 700 horses to win a month using my "setup".

Lets also assume that I can make a + 5% ROI on all these bets before any rebates.

So I have made 700 win bets in 30 days. Let's also assume that $20 win bets (after bank has built up and still only 1% of bank is being bet per wager. Anything more is suicide according to Pizzolla and I agree 10000% ) are made.

That is 14k a month bet. Lets take a 6% rebate. that's 840 clams back on that + 700 bucks profit on the actual wagers.

total return risking 14 large a month is 1500 bucks. Not for nothing big deal.

Now read on other sites about all these astronomical sums being bet monthly and I cant "get there from here".

What I mean is if I increase wager size to larger amounts (especially the smaller venues where MOST of my plays are) I am betting into myself and reducing odds quite possibly.

I have had this discussion with Ted privately and told him that CJ over on PA is the ONLY one who sees what I described above happening.

He has stopped betting these smaller tracks for the exact reason I outlined above saying "its not worth his time with the small pools" and has taken to only playing a few larger venues and increasing significantly wager size.

I honestly don't see it but I am not the smartest bulb in the fixture.


As far as costs for "Bill from Brooklyn" or whomever that's for them to find out Bill. I have a 9g a year tax bill on the house here. I have to take care of my business. Trackmaster blessed me with a comp account and I am looking for/exploring ways to exploit that plain and simple.

Drive safe!

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by RichieP

I put together a 3 tiered template and figured I'd test it with real money making 2 buck win bets using the TS conditional settings of 9/2 odds minimum at 0 mtp.

Only thing is my "template" is hand picking right now(hours of work looking at ALL tracks) and not automated so I am hoping the template will help in this area.

I for one am in the minority I guess as I definitely DO want a first look at the races I am interested in. But I want the look to be MINE and nothing else. Not interested in last race, best of last 3, best ever etc etc.

I have my own "rules" and they simply involve:
TPR screen
Days since last race
Blf
surface (dirt,poly,turf)
structure

I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man.

Richie,

Could you expand on the information you provided above please? I'm not sure I completely understand. Perhaps part of that comes from the fact that I do not use RDSS, so when you say "3 tiered template" I'm not sure what you mean.

Also, when you talk about "rules", you mentioned some areas in general. Would you consider being more specific?

What did you mean by," I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man"?

Lastly, are you suggesting that a template is forthcoming that will import from RDSS and make selections on an automated basis?

Thanks.

[Ted Craven]

I'll leave the details on Richie's hand-done 'automation' to him, but for the record, he is referring to the planned 'Paceline Selection Strategy (PSS)' feature I'm working on, where you compose a set of rules to guide the software to (optionally) pre-selecting a line (or lines) for each horse. Though I haven't gotten into it yet, this presumably continues on to automated eliminations as well (e.g. all but top 5 CPR or Total Energy).

A simple PSS would be 'last line' - no brainer. Another would be 'best of last 3' similar distance (e.g. within n furlongs), similar surface (do you mix Poly and Turf), etc, etc. Lot of moving parts, but trying to set up a user-defined template where you roll your own, make your preferred caveats, etc, etc. Let's see.

Re automated wager submission - upload to the conditional queues of those ADWs providing an upload feature (TwinSpires, PTC, Ubet), or direct interface with each ADW via API or other browser automation (an extension of existing tote interface).

Ted

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I'll leave the details on Richie's hand-done 'automation' to him, but for the record, he is referring to the planned 'Paceline Selection Strategy (PSS)' feature I'm working on, where you compose a set of rules to guide the software to (optionally) pre-selecting a line (or lines) for each horse. Though I haven't gotten into it yet, this presumably continues on to automated eliminations as well (e.g. all but top 5 CPR or Total Energy).

A simple PSS would be 'last line - no brainer. Another would be, best of last 3 similar distance (e.g. within n furlongs), similar surface (do you mix Poly and Turf), etc, etc. Lot of moving parts, but trying to set up a user-defined template where you roll your own, make your preferred caveats, etc, etc. Let's see.

Re automated wager submission - upload to the conditional queues of those ADWs providing an upload feature (TwinSpires, PTC, Ubet), or direct interface with each ADW via API or other browser automation (an extension of existing tote interface).

Ted

Thanks for the reply, Ted.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Hey Bill
The bets were made over 7 days this month.

What I meant about rebates is this: at smaller tracks (Mnr,Rp,Ct, Zia etc etc) there is a point where betting larger wagers actually has you betting against yourself in a way.

Let's make an assumption for discussion purposes ok? Lets say I can easily(assuming RDSS template gives me what I need saving countless hours of manual input etc) bet 700 horses to win a month using my "setup".

Lets also assume that I can make a + 5% ROI on all these bets before any rebates.

So I have made 700 win bets in 30 days. Let's also assume that $20 win bets (after bank has built up and still only 1% of bank is being bet per wager. Anything more is suicide according to Pizzolla and I agree 10000% ) are made.

That is 14k a month bet. Lets take a 6% rebate. that's 840 clams back on that + 700 bucks profit on the actual wagers.

total return risking 14 large a month is 1500 bucks. Not for nothing big deal.

Now read on other sites about all these astronomical sums being bet monthly and I cant "get there from here".

What I mean is if I increase wager size to larger amounts (especially the smaller venues where MOST of my plays are) I am betting into myself and reducing odds quite possibly.

I have had this discussion with Ted privately and told him that CJ over on PA is the ONLY one who sees what I described above happening.

He has stopped betting these smaller tracks for the exact reason I outlined above saying "its not worth his time with the small pools" and has taken to only playing a few larger venues and increasing significantly wager size.

I honestly don't see it but I am not the smartest bulb in the fixture.


As far as costs for "Bill from Brooklyn" or whomever that's for them to find out Bill. I have a 9g a year tax bill on the house here. I have to take care of my business. Trackmaster blessed me with a comp account and I am looking for/exploring ways to exploit that plain and simple.

Drive safe!

Hi Richie,

The level of performance you demonstrate here is excellent and consistent with some of the other longitudinal studies you've posted. Re the problem of pool-sized bet limits, William Benter touched on this problem in his article in 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets' but didn't present the algorithm he was using to handle it. In fact, one of Benter's main reasons for playing the Hong Kong tracks was that the huge mutuel pools allowed him to place his average bet - 250k - without cutting into his odds. The important point he makes is that it's possible to reduce your bet size to extract the maximum gain without cutting into your odds.

So the logic behind what CJ is doing is correct. But it is still necessary to know the minimum pool size needed to make your max (or average, if you're flat-betting) bet. This is not a question I often deal with, since I mainly play only the big circuits for just this reason, but I am checking into it because I'm also interested. I will post a more accurate answer when I have it, but Benter's article implies the optimal max bet is a bit less than 1/2 of 1% of the total win pool. So clearly even $20 maybe too big at some small tracks.

My general response to this problem would be to work from the bottom up. With a $20 flat bet, I would guess that many tracks are still playable. Play the high-volume multi-track approach, and as your bank grows, start dropping tracks whose average mutuel pools are too small too sustain your growing bet size. Eventually, of course, you will only be able to bet into the biggest pools. Even without increasing your bet-size the scheme you've laid out implies an annual return of 900% - not too shabby. So, the progress from small tracks to large would be fairly quick.

One thing I'm not clear about - you mention an 18% ROI for the betting sequence in question, but only 5% when calculating your betting scheme. Maybe you just wanted to be cautious, as far as betting goes, but do you think an ROI of 18% or something close to it is unsustainable? I think if you extended the sample to 1k or 2k races you would find it within the range of possibility.

In any case, good luck with this. If your're interested in checking the Benter article, it's included in William Ziemba's 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets', which is available in preview at Google Books.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Richie,

Could you expand on the information you provided above please? I'm not sure I completely understand. Perhaps part of that comes from the fact that I do not use RDSS, so when you say "3 tiered template" I'm not sure what you mean.

Also, when you talk about "rules", you mentioned some areas in general. Would you consider being more specific?

What did you mean by," I guess rebates with this volume might be nice but I still don't see it man"?

Lastly, are you suggesting that a template is forthcoming that will import from RDSS and make selections on an automated basis?

Thanks.

Hi "Ftl"
I am breaking each horses entire pps into 2 cycles that involve days since last race. After getting a number on a horses 1st cycle (if I get one at all) I open the pps to the 2nd cycle and allow for "x" amount of improvement over cycle 1.

This is my realistic maximum performance capability for TODAY'S race.

I am only working the following races and passing all others:
1) Open Claimers (NO conditions of any kind)

2) Starter alw where the horses have started for a claiming tag in last year(NO other conditions attached to the race) etc.

3) Nw3 and Nw4 lifetime(NO other conditions attached to the race)

That is it.

Every track, Every surface, Every distance (omitting only 5f races).

Hope that helped

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Richie,

The level of performance you demonstrate here is excellent and consistent with some of the other longitudinal studies you've posted. Re the problem of pool-sized bet limits, William Benter touched on this problem in his article in 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets' but didn't present the algorithm he was using to handle it. In fact, one of Benter's main reasons for playing the Hong Kong tracks was that the huge mutuel pools allowed him to place his average bet - 250k - without cutting into his odds. The important point he makes is that it's possible to reduce your bet size to extract the maximum gain without cutting into your odds.

So the logic behind what CJ is doing is correct. But it is still necessary to know the minimum pool size needed to make your max (or average, if you're flat-betting) bet. This is not a question I often deal with, since I mainly play only the big circuits for just this reason, but I am checking into it because I'm also interested. I will post a more accurate answer when I have it, but Benter's article implies the optimal max bet is a bit less than 1/2 of 1% of the total win pool. So clearly even $20 maybe too big at some small tracks.

My general response to this problem would be to work from the bottom up. With a $20 flat bet, I would guess that many tracks are still playable. Play the high-volume multi-track approach, and as your bank grows, start dropping tracks whose average mutuel pools are too small too sustain your growing bet size. Eventually, of course, you will only be able to bet into the biggest pools. Even without increasing your bet-size the scheme you've laid out implies an annual return of 900% - not too shabby. So, the progress from small tracks to large would be fairly quick.

One thing I'm not clear about - you mention an 18% ROI for the betting sequence in question, but only 5% when calculating your betting scheme. Maybe you just wanted to be cautious, as far as betting goes, but do you think an ROI of 18% or something close to it is unsustainable? I think if you extended the sample to 1k or 2k races you would find it within the range of possibility.

In any case, good luck with this. If your're interested in checking the Benter article, it's included in William Ziemba's 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets', which is available in preview at Google Books.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Thanks "B" for the info on Bentner and betting. I will definitely check out the Google preview.

The 5% is just complete cautious guesstimate.

Also to be honest this is completely boring and monotonous man. I have done no and I me no handicapping contenders/lines/wagers/matching etc. The horse is either in top 3 Bl/Bl after hiding to 5 1 at a time from the bottom of Bl/Bl up (super easy to program no Ted? ) or he's not.

My school stuff gets real intense starting 11/7 for 3 months so who knows. We will see what happens.

Very best to you "B" and stay cool

[tfm]

Rich

You're losing me here.
If you're able to maintain this volume of bets and return over the course of a year you could easily make over $100k betting $200 a pop.

And, what does this have to do with bettors that barely crack a positive ROI?
They need to put in more bets and bet more in order to make it worth while.

Doubtful anyone over at PA, for example, is close to your ROI over an extended period of time.