Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > RDSS
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-30-2010, 11:47 AM   #1
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Paceline Selection Strategies

Here's an example race to illustrate alternate paceline selection strategies, and also to highlight FWIW one I am programming now and experimenting using in by betting practice.

This is Belmont Sept 30, race 5 (today). Following are 2 BL screenshots for Analysis, followed by Original and Primary Factors screens for each horse. For me, the object of this exercise is to highlight issues involved in a consistent line selection strategy and perhaps the strengths and weaknesses of each.

To me, line selection is just one step in race analysis and certainly not the last one. FWIW (and not the subject of this thread), my own rough order of attack is:

-studying the race conditions
-identify the mix of visual running styles E,s EP, P, S to check for lone Earlies or lone Lates and followed by eliminating non-contenders down to a bout 5 horses)
-select pacelines (including check if an alternate paceline also ranks the horse similar, e.g. multiple lines in Top 3 BL)
-eliminate non-contenders down to about 5 horses (I don't play tri or super bets currently and the Win and Place horse show up in my Top 5 a lot)
-check any models I may have
-note whether the top ranked BLs are 'suspicious' (e.g. based on an old race, different surface/distance)
-check the real-time odds (I really like it when my 2 horses are in the top 4 Win odds, even more if also in Top 4 Tote Xray ranks)
-make a bet if there is one (95% of the time 2 horses, else 1 low odds horse to Win or Win/Place on a higher odds horse)
-record the race result in my daily track betting sheet / note my emotional response to both a Win and Loss
-add the result to my overall betting log

That said, whether this line selection which follows leads to a Win or a Loss in this race is relatively immaterial to its functionality: I expect to lose 4 or 5 of every 10 races (though I don't prefer to) - I just don't know which ones I'm going to Win


Note: the card was canceled, so the examples are irrelevant. I'll put up something else soon
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 09-30-2010 at 04:03 PM.
Ted Craven is offline  
Old 09-30-2010, 12:25 PM   #2
mikesal57
Grade 1
 
mikesal57's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
Thxs Ted for showing us some of the work that your thinking about working into RDSS...

I'm sure your going to get a lot of input of paceline selections based on recent threads here but it will now be in the open for all to discuss..good luck

One idea for 2.0..

Maybe you can add into the config setup - settings on which paceline the USER whats to use

examples..

#1..RDSS
#2...best TE last 3
#3...in the money finish
#4...Speed rating

etc,etc

and just maybe the USER's own config

just an idea

mike

P.S-...in this race ..I like the 6 & 7
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

Last edited by mikesal57; 09-30-2010 at 12:28 PM.
mikesal57 is offline  
Old 09-30-2010, 01:30 PM   #3
clore1030
Grade 1
 
clore1030's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,678
For the sake of argument, let's just say that the pace lines that you selected are the same ones that I would have determined.

I would have to go with the 5 horse as my own model has the top EPR horse in a six-furlong race winning at a 56% clip and the top FW horse coming in at 44%. This horse fits just fine, all that is needed for me to wager would be proper odds. I would need at least 3/1 in order to profit given my win% for the last 20-race cycle.

Alas, today's card is canceled, so we will never know.


EDITED TO ADD:
I should add that I tend to stay away from such a low claiming level given my own success rate in such things, thus I might set my odds requirement a bit higher.

Last edited by clore1030; 09-30-2010 at 01:32 PM.
clore1030 is offline  
Old 09-30-2010, 01:33 PM   #4
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Mike,

User defined Paceline Selection Strategies (PSS) is indeed where I'm headed. Including some presets such as you have suggested or as I describe above (and also including Last Line, from which FPLR), to be used either as is or tweaked further and saved as a New PSS. Actually, during the Data Centre Convert/Assemble process you can create several alternate Analysis sets from PSS's you're tracking and cycle among them while analysing a race.

The goal is consistency - not just how you do in one single race, but how the same, rigorous approach pans out over a series of races.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline  
Old 09-30-2010, 01:36 PM   #5
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by clore1030 View Post

Alas, today's card is canceled, so we will never know.
Well dang! Should have checked the NYRA site before spending an hour on this...

Onwards.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline  
Old 09-30-2010, 01:48 PM   #6
clore1030
Grade 1
 
clore1030's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,678
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Well dang! Should have checked the NYRA site before spending an hour on this...

Onwards.

Ted
My incredibly accurate left knee had been in such pain since waking up yesterday at 530am that I knew it was going to rain overnight. The severity of the pain is always an indication of the amount of precipitation. Thus I didn't even bother to download the card for today.

In the winter months, it's not the knee but the left ankle that predicts snow.

I trying to get both my knee and my ankle to predict equine events but so far have been unsuccessful.

Last edited by clore1030; 09-30-2010 at 01:53 PM.
clore1030 is offline  
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A Disappointed RDSS Evaluator Ted Craven RDSS 58 08-08-2011 11:32 AM
Time for some help Bill V. RDSS 144 09-30-2010 11:48 AM
Pace lines Bill V. Welcome to the Sartin Methodology 65 06-12-2010 05:30 PM
Paceline selection pianoman General Discussion 14 04-08-2009 09:35 PM
Paceline Selection Questions mikesal57 Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 7 08-16-2008 11:56 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:33 AM.