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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 10-26-2020, 09:15 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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FTL's teachings as they relate to Handicap races

Earlier this year we lost a great contributor, FTL. One of his areas of expertise was handicapping "Handicap" races. On this subject he wrote:

"Before I go on, I understand that “weight” plays no part in the methodology, neither does weight play any part in my own day to day handicapping, however, weight does play a part in handicap races at any level.

Let’s start with the 3 year old triple crown races. They are all run on the basis of “weight for age”, which means three year olds all carry 126 pounds. By contrast, in the handicap triple crown races, the racing secretary assigns the weight to be carried by each horse. The best horses in the racing secretary’s opinion carry the most weight. Those horses that the racing secretary considers lesser horses carry less weight. It is possible to see one horse carrying 140 pounds and another horse carrying 110 pounds, in the same race. So what does all this mean?

The winner of a handicap race, at any level, generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. As with everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, however this little piece of information is a good starting point in handicap races."

...

"...the ideal situation is where there are 3 clear cut top weighted horses, possibly 4. In this race there were 2 horses that shared the top weight...3 horses that shared the second top weight ...and 1 horse that came in with the third top weight."


Last Saturday Belmont race three such races - 6-7-10. Race 6 top weights were 2-6-7 and the race was won by the 6 with the 7 second. $10.40 and $1exacta $24.20. Field of 7

Race 7 high weights were 1-3-6-7 with the winning combo 1-6, $12.40 to win and a #1, $20.10 $1 exacta. The DD paid $39.00 for a $1 bet. Field of 6

Race 10 high weights were 2-3-5-7 with the finish 2-5-7-3, winning bet paid $9.40 and $1 exacta $23.80. The trifecta paid $61.25. Field of 7

FTR advocated starting your handicapping with the high weights, with hopefully no more than 4 horses. Worked pretty well last weekend.
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Old 10-27-2020, 01:10 PM   #2
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When did FTL pass away? I knew Bill V. left us back in the spring, but never saw anything about FTL.
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Old 10-27-2020, 04:18 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
When did FTL pass away? I knew Bill V. left us back in the spring, but never saw anything about FTL.
In June: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13046

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Old 10-29-2020, 12:49 PM   #4
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Not too many of these types of races are run today. You have to read the race conditions to find them many times. Last Saturday for instance RDSS showed the three races from Belmont as stakes races. You had to hover your mouse over the Type/Conditions column on the Summary sheet to see that the race was a Handicap Stakes. This is not a complaint about RDSS, its just that the tracks description of the race showed these races as State bred stakes. Must read the conditions or at least hover over the race to see if its a Handicap or not.

Cheers.
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Old 02-27-2021, 02:51 PM   #5
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there are three such races involved with the tracks that I download.

Tampa races 6 and 8 and the Razorback Handicap at OP.

Tampa R6, hiwts 9-8-6 finished 9-8. $1 Exacta paid $10.50

Tampa R8, hiwts 6-8-10 co highweights with 3 others one lb below these. Not the kind of race that FTL advised betting into.

OP 7, hiwts 7-4-1-2

Good luck on the last two races.
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Old 02-27-2021, 04:19 PM   #6
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The concept of high weights in H'cap races was one of the first things I was taught when I
was beginning to learn handicapping in 1980. The reason the high weights do well in these races is they are the most accomplished horses in the field therefore expected to win these races.
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Old 02-27-2021, 05:14 PM   #7
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Tam 8, oddball winner where there was no separation in the highweights. 11-12-5. The 11 was one of six highweights, 3 tied at 117, so per FTL parameters, no play.

OP Razorback finished 7-1-4, so if you played 2 races, you get two small wins and a little exacta money - $19.90 for $1 exacta.

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 02-27-2021 at 05:17 PM.
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Old 02-28-2021, 12:10 PM   #8
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When it comes to handicapping horses, weight is not a magic bullet or the key to the mint. It has been around at least since the 1970 or before.

That's when I first became aware of it. During that era there were only two racing magazines and the Turf Monthly one was devoted strictly to handicapping. This was where Ray Taulbot and other expert handicappers whom wrote for them first published about weight. Back in those days there also was a proliferation of Starter Allowance races where horses were assigned weight by the track handicapper. Few of those are seen now a day.

It just that later arriving handicappers never heard of weight as a factor.

As racing evolved it lost its potency and glamor. It is not a primary handicapping factor and high-weight horses need to be put into context like any factor, such as the form cycle, surface and distance where it earned that high-weight verses todays conditions. Besides those pesky ties, the risk reward isn't there.

One needs to keep abreast of racing or get trampled along the way. Sartin was well aware of this and through studies and collection of data he evolved. Around 1990 his concept of pace line selection changed for the better, the Preceptor was another great improvement and something as simple as rating each race for Total Pace.

Bottom line is that the Factors and tools within RDSS are more useful and will outperform weight as a factor in handicapping horseraces. Get to know them and you'll be way ahead of the mob, welcome to the generation of 2020's.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 02-28-2021 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 03-30-2021, 04:03 PM   #9
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bump.
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