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Old 10-11-2018, 11:21 AM   #1
partsnut
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BEL 10-11-18 Race-2 Using Thoromation

BEL 10-11-18 Race-2 Using Thoromation

I would make a win bet on #2 La Naturel if I could get 4-1 odds at the gate.
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Old 10-11-2018, 11:24 AM   #2
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More Read Outs

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Old 10-11-2018, 12:47 PM   #3
Jeebs
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Tough race

With the mud, the race is one huge wild-a$$ guess. I'm thinking that if #11 can get out, maybe it wires the field. By far, the fastest F1 and a very early E/L differential, and lone Early energy median%. However, anything can happen when most of the field doesn't have ratable dirt races.

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Old 10-11-2018, 02:10 PM   #4
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Top contra horse gets the duke and pays a nice price. My bad!
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Old 10-12-2018, 01:00 PM   #5
Mark
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Why?

Why would you ever consider a turf line in a sloppy or muddy race?
Why would you consider a horse that has never run on dirt, fast, sloppy or muddy as a win contender?
Selecting pacelines is probably the most important skill a handicapper can have. Why would you surrender that to a mechanical paceline selection routine?
Why would you select a paceline with a huge negative DTV indicating that the track was running extremely fast and utilize a archaic adjustment process that applies final time variant to the internal fractions?

Each of us has to answer these questions and satisfy ourselves that what we are doing is meaningful handicapping and not playing fun with numbers!
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Old 10-12-2018, 02:01 PM   #6
Jeebs
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Originally Posted by Mark View Post
Why would you ever consider a turf line in a sloppy or muddy race?
Why would you consider a horse that has never run on dirt, fast, sloppy or muddy as a win contender?
Selecting pacelines is probably the most important skill a handicapper can have. Why would you surrender that to a mechanical paceline selection routine?
Why would you select a paceline with a huge negative DTV indicating that the track was running extremely fast and utilize a archaic adjustment process that applies final time variant to the internal fractions?

Each of us has to answer these questions and satisfy ourselves that what we are doing is meaningful handicapping and not playing fun with numbers!
Hi Mark,

The most diplomatic response that I can muster is that everybody handicaps differently. If it works for them and they can make money doing it, it's meaningful.

I don't go hijacking threads criticizing how someone selects their lines or contenders. If matching works for you, great. You won't see me quarreling with what you do. Tim Y. used to fan the flames of dissent quite often with stuff such as this.

The only reason that I even looked at this race was because Partsnut (Bill H) was nice enough to post it, and I wanted to add something to help it along. Otherwise, I wouldn't have bothered. The sloppy track, coupled with it being an off-the-turf affair, made it a tricky race to handicap. You can only use what you have available.

Be well and God Bless you.
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Old 10-12-2018, 03:00 PM   #7
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Whoa

Where did that come from, Jeebs?


Those are serious questions. They are not judgmental or critical of anyone's methods.


Ask yourself! If you are satisfied with the answers then what are you worried about, if not then maybe you have do some more work.


I wouldn't presume to speak for everyone that visits this site. Should you?
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Old 10-12-2018, 03:21 PM   #8
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Where did that come from, Jeebs?


Those are serious questions. They are not judgmental or critical of anyone's methods.


Ask yourself! If you are satisfied with the answers then what are you worried about, if not then maybe you have do some more work.


I wouldn't presume to speak for everyone that visits this site. Should you?
The serious questions you laid out - at least my view from the bleachers anyway - seemed judgmental at first glance. But since you say that these are indeed serious questions, I will answer them seriously.

1) Sometimes, a turf line is all you have to work with. I know some who would rather auto-toss such a horse rather than deal with an unknown factor. I can't say that I blame them. However, if a horse shows energy balance that is closer to early than late, it may indicate that the horse will take to dirt better. Every situation is unique. Horses like Good Samaritan and Yoshida come to mind when it comes to considering a turf line in a dirt race. It's always a risk. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

2) Pedigree can have a strong bearing, as well as Class Rating/BRIS Prime Power (in my experience).

3) There is no one way to skin the paceline selection cat. Sartin found that a best of last 3 at a comparable surface/distance/comp. level. outperformed other strategies when tested years back. Obviously he is dead and he can't continue to add to his work, but it works for me. Others use the older guidelines with great success. Others do well at matching. It's all individual and based on one's comfort and profit.

4) I try and stay away from very extreme DTV's - unless I can't. Mahoning in the winter is notorious for some of the highest variants that I've ever seen. It is a nightmare trying to use lines from that track. However, sometimes, you have no choice but to use a line with an extreme DTV. You have to mentally note it as such, and really determine based on common sense if the horse is a true contender or not off of non-Sartin factors.

Since paying more attention to Best of Last 3, I have improved my focus. Now that I pay a lot of mind to Early/Late graph differential and Energy Run Styles, I can recognize race shape patterns that loom off the page, especially when one is a lone Energy style and it's graph line sticks out above the rest.
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Old 10-12-2018, 03:43 PM   #9
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My 2 cents; "You have to use what you have," A Bradshaw quote. "Doc" Sartin had said at seminars that off tracks and turf lines are interchangeable. I have followed that guidance for years and it has served me well.


I also employ Sartin guidelines of the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Those guidelines don't fit every situation that is encountered and the Bradshaw quote does come into play. If all the horse has is a good Preceptor with a high variant than use that line per Bradshaw or pass the race, an individual choice.

As Jeebs states an individual is free to do and choose to do whatever they wish but I have found that those that stray from Sartin's proven concepts pay the piper rather than make those withdrawals from the racing banks. His concepts have been proven over years and many thousands of races. One must have a damn good reason to go against his proven concepts.


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Old 10-12-2018, 04:34 PM   #10
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Admittedly...

I am a Bradshaw proponent. I started attempting to learn the Match Up going on 6 years ago. I found the Sartin Methodology in the early 90s and it gave form and structure to my handicapping. But I didn't understand why horses won out on the track and while I did well enough to keep my interest and keep coming back for more, I seldom overcame the take out at the end of the year.
There was no greater contrarian than Dr Sartin. His lead changed handicapping for ever. His edict "The cure for losing is winning" did not set well with the Psychological community but to the end of his career, I felt that his mission, whether through guidance, criticism, admonition, yes and even browbeating was to turn losers into winners at the track and in life.
Profitable handicapping today by which I am talking about making serious money, augmenting or supplanting ordinary household income, you cannot do what the crowd is doing.
That is my point! The methodology has been 30 years or so in the Public Domain. For one, limiting yourself to the last 3 comparable lines and the use of final time variants applying them to internal fractions is looking at the handicapping challenge exactly like the majority of the betting public. Secondly, all racing whether human, dog, horse or whatever depends on early pace. I ran track in high school and if you did as well you know this to be true. The faster you go early the less energy and wind you have to finish. It is axiomatic! Early pace is the independent variable in this equation, final time is completely dependent upon it.
I don't ask you to do anything but think about it. Don't take my word. Are you succeeding with your methods? If not do something about it!
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