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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 05-03-2017, 09:13 AM   #11
DontSayDont
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Quote:
Mitch is correct. The tables/charts I made are exact copies of the ones in the original hardbound edition of Pace Makes The Race
Pages 38.39,40 and 41
Reverge information comes from The New PMTR by Hambleton and Schmidt.

There are various differences in the two charts such as:
6.5f original 28.4 New 28.6
7.0f original 35.0 New 35.5 hand written over 34.5 (misprint? - most likely)
7.5f original 41.6 New 41.0
1M.70 original 27.0 New 26.8
8.5f original 29.4 New 29.3
9.0f original 36.2 New 35.7
9.5f original 43.2 New 42.3

These are the newer 100 point listings from the New PMTR book (pg.'s 22-23). I hope I copied Bill V's numbers correctly, if not I apologize in advance.

I never worked with them as I was extremely disappointed after receiving the book and finding out that chapters from the original book had been left out in the New edition. I was looking forward to reading about the fulcrum method and more on the Sartin methodology but those were some of the chapters excluded. I really didn't want to pay the price of the original book and give more money to the authors when I felt disappointed about the updated version.

Ray
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Old 05-03-2017, 09:36 AM   #12
Mitch44
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DontSayDont:

Thanks for your clarification. By tweaking or changing the numbers slightly they can claim its their own, an author thing as I suspected. I would use the original as Bill V. posted.

Don't be disparaged DontSayDont by not having the original book because everything in there is contained in other Sartin writings elsewhere. Additionally RDSS Has all this contained in it and it's much better improved plus all the later and much newer concepts.
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Old 05-03-2017, 12:43 PM   #13
Ted Craven
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For the record, RDSS uses the same TPR charts as did Validator (and Speculator) - which are the same as published in the Original Edition of Pace Makes the Race.

With the following exceptions for LPR: (Note: LPR or Final Fraction in Sprints is the portion of the race between the 4f Second Call time and the Final Time; and in Routes the portion of the race between the 6f time and the Final Time.)

Distance/100 Rating
4.5 ........ 6 (added)
5.0 ........ 9 (added)
8.2 ........ 25 (1 mile 40 yds) compares to 25.2 tenths
10.0 ...... 50 (for final 4f, compares to 24 for final 2f)
10.5 ...... 56 (added)
11.0 ...... 60 (added)
11.5 ...... 63 (added)
12.0 ...... 70 (added)

(Note: pace measured by Second Call time has very little impact on the very short and marathon added distances above).

RDSS does NOT use RAW times - it uses the Adjusted Times found on the Adjusted screen - for the EPR and LPR calculations (and ALL other calculations and factors). All raw distances and surfaces are projected to today's distance and surface. The Daily Track Variant is added according to the settings and constraints in your Configure Settings. The Inter-Track Variant is added (equalizing the inherent speed of different tracks/surfaces to each other) - ALWAYS. If a paceline comes from the same track, surface and distance as today's race - it is still adjusted to a hypothetical norm (aka 'Sartin Downs'). Effectively, from the point of view of the various velocities, ratings, factors and Line Scores in RDSS (i.e. everything beyond the raw Original screen) - the race is being run at Sartin Downs, not at BEL or PRX or SA or GP or whatever is today's actual track.

Then, from the resulting adjusted Second Call and Final times for the pace of the race - minus the horse's beaten lengths at a value of 2 tenths seconds (.20) per length -- the EPR and LPR ratings are calculated according to the original PMTR Charts (Pages 38-42 1st Edition) plus the above additions/changes.

One can always equivocate - or hold an alternate opinion - over the correctness of the adjustment system (distance projections, surface eqalizations, DTV and ITV adjustments) or situationally use different DTV settings by surface or distance - but it IS consistent, which is what we ask of a 'systematic' approach to creating ratings. I always feel that it's up to us to apply all 'local knowledge' or long-term observation about any output of these and other formulas which result in wonky projections and ratings.

Even so - the TPR Ratings (for some) are but 3/7ths of the input into the BLBL rating (3 out of 7 factors), and deceleration further modifies BL to create VDC (and VDC is 1/5th of the input into Rx, etc).

Plus - checking multiple lines per horse to confirm whether a given paceline's ratings are reproducible today given the likely pace setup, plus assessing a horse's form cycle and competitive placement in today's race, plus assessing the wisdom of a bet given the market odds from among the Top 4 Contenders - all serve to smooth out the possible inaccuracies of EPR/LPR calculations from Adjusted Times. IMO.

Also just to be clear - TrackMaster/Equibase does NOT supply EPR or LPR ratings. They only supply raw running times, beaten lengths, Daily Track variants and Inter Track variants. RDSS does ALL the rest using these raw inputs.

Cheers,

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-03-2017 at 12:46 PM.
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Old 05-03-2017, 01:52 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
Reverge information comes from The New PMTR by Hambleton and Schmidt.

There are various differences in the two charts such as:
6.5f original 28.4 New 28.6
7.0f original 35.0 New 35.5 hand written over 34.5 (misprint? - most likely)
7.5f original 41.6 New 41.0
1M.70 original 27.0 New 26.8
8.5f original 29.4 New 29.3
9.0f original 36.2 New 35.7
9.5f original 43.2 New 42.3

These are the newer 100 point listings from the New PMTR book (pg.'s 22-23). I hope I copied Bill V's numbers correctly, if not I apologize in advance.

I never worked with them as I was extremely disappointed after receiving the book and finding out that chapters from the original book had been left out in the New edition. I was looking forward to reading about the fulcrum method and more on the Sartin methodology but those were some of the chapters excluded. I really didn't want to pay the price of the original book and give more money to the authors when I felt disappointed about the updated version.

Ray
then i dont know what edtion my book is then cause i have 6.5 28,4 7f 34.5 7.5f 41.0 now my 1m 70 is 100 26.8 99 is 27 the next 3 must b new. so ok, what ever version i have is close. thanks
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Old 05-03-2017, 02:57 PM   #15
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OBTW" my numbers are in "10's" not "5ths" eg 5.5 f 15.6 100, posted chart by bill 15.3 100 and it continues. ok no big deal...
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Old 05-03-2017, 04:10 PM   #16
Bill V.
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Ted

Hi Ted

Jeebs discovered this error, I have no answer to why the ratings were sped up in a race with a -10 DTV and no ITV

Mitch and I worked on this in a long phone conversation and neither of us could come to a better conclusion that somebody, ( we assumed Trackmaster) simply made a mistake.

After reading your post Now I'm convinced for sure Line 1 for horse Swell
Is simply being rated incorrectly

would you agree? I like what you wrote, Actually, I was just reading
In the original PMTR about not putting everything on just 1 line,
Tom Brohamer suggest avoiding horses with just one line that rates
amongst the better horses lines, Hambelton says to look for a verifying line

Anyway it still is troubling to see an error like line 1 for Swell

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...04&postcount=8
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Old 05-03-2017, 04:17 PM   #17
Ted Craven
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Ted


After reading your post Now I'm convinced for sure Line 1 for horse Swell
Is simply being rated incorrectly

would you agree?


Anyway it still is troubling to see an error like line 1 for Swell

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...04&postcount=8
Bill, I'll study the adjustments made and explain them. I'll get back on this.

Ted
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Old 05-03-2017, 04:27 PM   #18
Bill V.
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Thank You

Thanks Ted

You know I depend on Phase 1 I know RDSS has so many great tools
To me, it all starts with phase 1 and VDC

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 05-05-2017, 01:38 PM   #19
MikeB
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Chef

Mitch is correct. The tables/charts I made are exact copies of the ones in the original hardbound edition of Pace Makes The Race
Pages 38.39,40 and 41
I have the 2nd edition, which shows only Hambleton and Schmidt as authors.

The final fraction ratings are given in tenths of a second. For ratings 100-96, the 7F times are 35.5, 35.7, 35.9, 36.1, 36.3. This progression continues, adding 2/10 of a second for each 1 point drop in rating.

The 6.5F rating of 100 is shown as 28 3/5 in the OP, and as 28 4/10 in my book. 7.5F here is 41 3/5, 41 in mine.

Other differences for the 100 rating are 25 2/10 for 1m40, 26 8/10 for 1m70, 29 3/10 for 8.5F, 35 7/10 for 9F, and 42 3/10 for 9.5F.
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Old 05-05-2017, 01:51 PM   #20
MikeB
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Originally Posted by Rverge View Post
then i dont know what edtion my book is then cause i have 6.5 28,4 7f 34.5 7.5f 41.0 now my 1m 70 is 100 26.8 99 is 27 the next 3 must b new. so ok, what ever version i have is close. thanks
The first edition shows Hambleton, Schmidt, Pizzolla, and Sartin as authors on the cover. The second edition shows just Hambleton and Schmidt.
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