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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 07-03-2019, 07:55 PM   #81
Mitch44
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Orginal screen PP's

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Old 07-03-2019, 08:46 PM   #82
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Above is a horse's PP's from a recent race. Use your slide bar at the bottom of your computer to slide it to the right to see the Total Energy of the horse and the Preceptor for each of its races in its PP's.

A quick analysis of the Total Energy indicates the following: the horse failed 3 times in route races and is a sprinter, he has failed twice on the dirt and his lone sprint was a maiden race which was probably a weak field. His last 3 races all qualify as to distance (within 1F of todays distance) and surface as poly-track races and turf races are interchange.

Every horse has a best distance and when going too far they will decelerate, a horse cutting back in distance will decelerate less and run faster because of the cutback. Sartin said;" its more risky to project because the horse has never ran the distance before, its always more accurate and safe to extract with a horse that's cutting back because he has already ran the distance."

Anytime a horse has multiple wins they need to be investigated, good horses with multiple wins tend to only do what they have to in order to win. If you chose Line 1 or 2 this horses ranks last of my 5 contenders.The best Preceptor is line 3 and ranks this horse on top.

Every horse has a point where the distance is too far causing it to decelerate and not win. This horse is cutting back from 7F to 6 which also tells me he can run even faster going 6 F than 7 F with the cutback.

One can see by analyzing the horses PP's from the bottom up we can find out many things from Total Energy and also the Preceptor will get you the correct line. This is the advantage of using these tools over the older X & O's etc. Also as you can see that even with a win in Lines 1 & 2 which would qualify under the old X & O that all wins(or any position) are not all created equal. This is an example of Sartin's later tools which he didn't get a chance to write about before passing.

This horse won again and paid $9.30 and keyed a nice $38.00 Ex.

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Old 07-04-2019, 01:56 PM   #83
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Screen shot

Hello Mitch


Thank you for posting the screenshot for the Woodbine horse

It was very helpful. A great demonstration of paceline selection using the total energy and preceptor factors. The Deceleration with cutbacks really has helped me.
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Old 07-04-2019, 07:00 PM   #84
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Hello Bill,

Took me 2 days to get that up and not sure I remember all the steps. I'm a work in progress. ha ha ha

Players are generally fooled by cutbacks and stretch outs. I can handle both but for beginners I recommend Sartin advice of sticking to cutbacks.

I always had a problem picking pace lines until I went to the Saratoga seminar in 1990. At that time Sartin came up with adding the Speed Rating and Variant of the last 3 to get the correct line. That was his first step to evaluating a pace line.

The problem with pace lines is that the human eye does not see or pick up the hidden moves or internal moves. Take the example posted with the pace being about
21:3 and 44:3 in its last race, now that is a terrific pace and would tend to lead us toward that line. He made some hidden moves and overcame the pace. The 7 F race was on a completely different and a different variant. Class is being able to also carry speed over a distance. Averaging 12 seconds per furlong for 6F or 112:00 isn't a very classy horse at most track or a cheap Claimer. But carry 12 seconds for 10 F or 1 1/4 = 2:00 minutes and its a G1 horse and a champion.

I would never challenge or question the Preceptor, its just the bomb for getting a pace line. Analyzing a horse's form using Total Energy tells us if the horse is properly placed and the all important form question. Hopefully more will use these great tools.

Best of health my friend,

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Old 07-05-2019, 03:41 PM   #85
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FU # 58 Giving Preponderance of Evidence Back to the Lawyers. . .

Pg. 30 "Preponderance of Evidence applies only to such evidence pointing to either guilt or innocence that was concurrent within the time frame of the alleged felony."

"In handicapping the only Model/Profile evidence that should be admissible must also be concurrent within the limited parameters of what's true now." "Yes even then(1980's), Brohamer and I warned everyone to keep a current model."

What Sartin is saying here is that if a Model/Profile that isn't current and up to date its totally useless. Some made one and thought it lasted forever for a given circuit, others didn't model the factors they recommended. And with todays RDSS there never has been any recommended factors to model for this particular program because Sartin passed away before he gave us that piece of information. How do we know that? Because on pg.31 he talks about an author embracing a concept or procedure, and the need to "riding that hobby horse forever." "Personally I will change at the drop of reality's fickle hat."

Pg. 34 Talking about the Neo-Laffer curve on pages 32 & 33 he states; "...and you can win just as many races without any Model & Profile." "In short, you will win about the same number of races using no Model/Profile as you would from a Model/Profile based on a huge wealth of back data." In other words old data is worthless.

All that just address's just the fact of old data. How about other aspects? Most models are kept by ranking which is not accurate because the difference between any rank is always one.Their also destroyed by incorrect contenders and pace lines. They use averages which tear down the best and elevate the worse.Sartin also had us model a lot and send in that information which allowed him to make a better mouse trap with every program he developed.

In FU # 80 pg.12 (Factors Altered by Time. He talks about % Med & ESP as no longer being relevant and altered by time. But if you read that the primary reason for not being relevant was because they were so mis-used. I can't help but feel that if he was able to write more that he would have added Models & Profiles to this list.

A Model/ Profile is not needed in order to win." pg.14 FU 80 "However all potential bias is factored in to the V/DC output." The match-up has also been honed to its finest over the years and is considered within the V/DC factor which really eliminates the need for any model. Sartin's treatment is basically do no harm, a good solution in treatment to old school ideas that refuse to die. They also live on only because the good Doctor is no longer with us.

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Old 07-06-2019, 01:21 PM   #86
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FU # 59 The Paceline

Pg. 33 " . . . utilizing a horse's ENTIRE Past Performance chart to determine its chances in today's race."

Every contender I select I do a complete analysis of its PP's to gain all the insightful information I can gather and to pick a proper pace line. An example was given in post # 81 & 82 of this thread(above) to pick a correct pace line and the information we can gather as to a horses best dis. & surface .Additionally I do the same thing with a horses PP's in the Bris PP's because this gives me additional information that is unavailable in the RDSS PP's.This procedure will allow you to downgrade or upgrade horses to get more winners.

Pg. 33 Sartin again emphasized the use of the X and O's that went all the way back to the 1981 Basic Manuel.The reason for this is that as of this issue they were still relevant. This issue was before he developed the Preceptor and had he not passed on he would have placed the X and O's in the heap of Factors no longer relevant. We showed in post 81 & 82 above the power of the Preceptor for a pace line and form along with the use of Tot. Energy. The human eye or any other method can't equate to its power, because it detects hidden moves, considers track to track switches, track variant adjustments and uses the 7 Primary factors. The Preceptor and Tot. Energy work in concert with each other for analysis and selecting the proper line. I have been expounding on the Preceptor for the last 4 years or so and many are now using this tool however others stubborn resistance to change keep them from becoming winners or increasing their bottom line. Adapt or perish not only applies to military life but beyond that to all aspects of life.

Pg. 33 In reference to picking a pace line he states; "Predicative',relative to todays Match Up is even more correct."

This is a sensitive area that for most and is hard for them to employ. As an example an Early horse MAY be able to also run EP or P and it has an advantage over other E types who only run one way and must chase the leader,and will probably give way(decelerate in stretch). I seldom use or do this because picking the best line of last 3 . . . allows the horse some leeway to do what it wants to in order to win. I use it to get place horses that can alter their style to fit the situation and get up for the place or win. An analysis of a horses ESP running style by the computer (%Med) not the visual is needed to employ this from the horse's energy screen.

"Best of the last three (or four when circumstances dictate) at a comparable distance and surface(and to a lesser degree class)is a satisfactory procedure for those unwilling to analyze the Match Up."

Also as I said previously beginners( and most others for that matter) should stick to the last 4 lines for the correct line. After that it may not be the same horse as that previously good race. Going back past 4 requires more expertise and it really does not come up that often.

Pg. 34 & 35 " While horses with the fastest adjusted final times still win a fair share of the races, especially sprints, they are now paying increasing lower mutuals.The truth is: The "fastest" horse is not necessarily the better wager. The horse crossing the finish line first is now,and has always been, the one to bet.

As I have said previously, winners are the springboard to everything. The game is about picking winners not prices. If a horse is too low to bet you need to ask;How can I make money out of this race? This can be done by using as a key to an DD,P3,Ex or even a Tri. Design a bet to capitalize on your analysis of the race and its low odds. This is even more important this time of the year with so many tracks open and a shortage of horses causing small fields and lower odds.

Pg. 35 " There are usually several lines in each horse's Past Performance Charts that are equally predicative."

Usually but not always, but many times more than one line will get the horse in the top 3 which is the main objective. As we saw with our example of Wet Your Whistle that even with multiple wins only one line can get the horse in your top 3. All this(paragraph) really is nothing to be concerned with as the use of the Preceptor solves all this and gives us the solution. Its a ticket to the payoff window,our main destination,otherwise get ready to pull that reserve handle and crash and burn.

Pg. 35 "This is why we see so many Win-Show Exacta tickets."

What happens here is they have the same running style,the match up causes a duel between them and eventually that duel takes a toll causing one to decelerate to get the show slot. A horse immune to this duel /match-up many times gets the Place position,often at a good price depending how gutted one of the same running style gets.

"This horse is the Counter Energy horse. " Only rarely does not one of the in -the-money finishers NOT come from Counter Energy."

Note: Counter Energy horses are shown on the E-L graph(red & blue lines) of the TPR screen.

"By Counter-Energy I don't mean the horse that is most counter. I've always stressed that it should be a contender with at least a top4(and ties) collective ranking regardless of the computer being used."

We're back to step 1 here and getting the proper contenders. If you have the proper contenders both the win and place horse will normally be in that mix. I say normally here because there are other reasons a horse will jump up and get the place. Some of these wake ups are gettable and some are impossible and like wise for the show and Trifecta's. The all button isn't the answer and causes an extension of your bankroll(more outlay), then you either go broke or if you do win your just recouping and not profit making.

Pg. 36 "Appropriate Exotic wagering is the way to overcome the multitude of low priced winners." Tailor a bet based on your analysis.

"To get the higher paying winners one must utilize the enormous potential of the multiple readouts . . . It is necessary to isolate the prime factors that produce long shots."

I always say that if you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown. While you can win on just a factor or two, analysis of several screens provide insights to confirm contenders and discount others.

" I have often said that a long shot is a favorite hardly anyone bets on."

People often ask me how I got a good paying horse and I always reply the same way I get any winner. They do come along doing exactly the same thing or a consistent procedure. The public just really made a mistake on the horse by following main steam thinking. Sartin list some on this page, a couple of my favorites are horse's going up in class or coming off a 90 day layoff. I won't list all on this page but you get the point. Sometimes a wider range of contenders can get these horses. I also get them by doing a quick review of my non-contenders for potential good price horses.

Pg. 37 "Become familiar with the power of all your readouts unless your content with only low prices."

I would add all screens within the program as most don't do this and their important to separating the top contenders. A weakness by so many and a major cause of their failure.

Sorry for the length of this last one but it is full of good stuff, and not to be ignored.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 07-06-2019 at 01:24 PM.
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Old 07-06-2019, 01:38 PM   #87
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PP's with TPR

hello Mitch

Here is the PP's for your example from post #81 with the TPR/Phase 1 Early and Late graph

Blue lines = Late
Red lines = Early

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Old 07-06-2019, 04:14 PM   #88
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Thanks Bill for posting this.

In this example using the TPR screen we find that this horse's best TPR numbers and Tot. Energy races is when he ran Sustain. While he has run early his very best races are Sustain and only leaves two possible lines (2 & 3) as far as a pace line. Being this horse is stepping up in class to a G3 the 3 line would be correct and his best Preceptor.

After his big race in L 3 he was given a nice 4 month layoff and came back with 2 wins and figures for a top effort today. The trainer also has figured out this horse likes at least 3 weeks between races or longer.

When I pick a pace line I make sure that line has the correct ESP, in this case this horse's best races are Sustain and I would not pick an early line. The reason he has run good at both E & S is he is a class horse and class horses can do that. He also is a young horses at 4 yr. old with just 10 races, he is improving as indicated by his last 3 races.

Like Sartin says in FU #59 use multiple screens to get a complete picture. I always start my analysis with the TPR screen and I frequently refer to it to make sure my pace line matches a horse's best ESP.These red and blue lines are important and are a depiction of % Med and how a horse runs. Their much clearer than numbers and just pop up at you.

As I said before Horses change their ESP but within their basic E or L bracket because of the match up in a particular race. Think more Early and Late and within those two confines. For an E type it not unusual for it to run E, Ep or P depending on the match up. Ditto for a S, except S,SP or L. Now of course some horses don't do this for ex. an E horse may only have one way of going, from wire to wire with very high % Med and very long red sticks. You can determine some of this stuff on the energy screen of the horse, but even with that and selecting the best of the last 3 comparable etc. the computer will determine this all for you. Where this does help is getting the correct line and the ability to discount horses etc.

Also beware that a horse that changes its ESP or running style in it last race or two and increased its Total Energy or TPR, expect it to keep on improving and sometimes at a big price.

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Old 07-08-2019, 12:02 PM   #89
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Odds and ends:

Pg. 90 of Yellow Manuel " You are out to win money not to display how many winners you can get."

Sartin stated the average user obtained a 63% win rate. For many this was a steep mountain to climb and it was probably more difficult than he let on. However its a worthy goal and one all his teachers had to meet. What held and still holds most back is the difficulty of the subject, as this isn't an angle play and the fact there were no specific rules but plenty of guidelines and exceptions. Most failures came from simply not following instructions, overcome by the complexity of it all they simply threw in the towel and gave up.This still takes place today,no instant gratification, just a school of hard knocks without getting passed on from a bell curve or for mediocracy.

"Check your losers. You will learn more from them than from your winners."

Post mortems allow you to zero in on a specific area of fault which otherwise may go unnoticed. Such as contender selection, poor pace line choice or poor money management. Its a relief to find out a mistake wasn't made and the horse was un-gettable,did something it never did before or an area of weakness needs to be shored up.

Pg 93 Old Yeller: Kelly Criterion

For this to work you must have a degree of proficiency in picking winners, Sartin said "60 %", the bottom line here is no betting technique works without picking winners or can compensate for a losing method. I have found that this is very hard to implement on a race by race basis and even more so if playing multiple tracks etc. My recommendation here is that once you reach a high degree of proficiency and only then, to employ the Kelly at the end of the day or a 20 race cycle. This way your employing and gaining from the power of it but simplifying the process. If your only playing a single track it can more easily be employed.

Pg 95 In the early 1980's Sartin proposed a two horse betting technique of 60% on the low odds horse and 40% on the higher odds choice of your two selections, and this still remains a main ingredient for success.

" Reducing the number of successive losses keeps the confidence level of the wager high, reduces the margin of error of personal error and virtually eliminates the tendency to plunge or to deviate from the prescribed selection process." pg 16 of The Psychology of Winning Manuel; " This practice not only dramatically reduces psychological pressures, it enhances you ultimate return on investment."

FU # 82 Pg. 70 " All you winners know that the higher mutual come from Pressers and Sustained Pressers.

Early speed is overhyped and everyone sees that, what they don't see are the hidden moves and horses that overcome the Pace of the Race. The bottom line is that Match Up supersedes Early speed.

FU # 83 pg. 70 " Don't start betting large sums until you're familiar with the program and have a sizeable record of your own results."

Money management again,why wipe out all you're hard gained work with one stupid wager? This is the action of a gambler not an investor.

FU 81 Pg. 33 When favorites dominate." The solution of course, learn to pass races where there is no value.Easy to say- hard to do. It requires a "feel" . . . sort of intuition that some call instinct." FU # 82 pg.61 " Perhaps the most important factor in successful wagering is learning how to pass races in which the winner offers no value."

This really requires tremendous discipline, never risk a lot for a little return. " No one ever lost money passing on a race."

FU # 76 pg. 19 "If one has a horse paying $7.00 (5-2) or more in the top 3 BLBL Tiers, it should be a bet."

The reason for this is simple, it will make you a profit on the race(60% & 40%) and if not it keeps you close so that when a nice hit comes along its all profit and your not trying to recoup losses. Ditto for a 3rd choice that goes off at least 9-2 or $11.00, Sartin says to always have at $2.00 on this horse. Many a bettor has allowed a 3rd choice to go off at really big odds only to regret it after. For those that have problems separating contenders to get those two horses to bet this should help you considerably but only from horses ranked in the top 3 BLBL or I would add the top 3 V/DC also.

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