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10-14-2010, 12:45 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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10/14 Penn 6th
Here is a race tonight that I thought was interesting. It’s the 6th at Penn National going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. What caught my eye is the fact that most of the runners are either need-to-lead types or have only run their best when 1st or 2nd at the 1st call. The only exceptions I found were #3 and #8.
I projected the pace off of #4’s last race (22.0 45.0). I see that #3 did well against the projected 1st call in its last two races, however the 2nd calls were much slower than today’s pace. #8 won its last race versus a 22.1 and 45.3, a little faster 2nd call than #3, but still 3 ticks off of today’s pace. Also, #8 won from 3rd position at the first call and will probably have to fight to get to third at the first call today or will have to win from further back positionally. So, this is where I’m stuck on this race. Did anyone else have a look? Pete |
10-15-2010, 09:14 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Hi Pete...
This wasn't as hard as you made it to be... Who ran the closest to the fastest pace?? #2 ran closest to a 22-45-1:10.2....Was this a fluke ?...no... race prior 3rd vs a 1:10.4 also other speed was vs 5000 limited claimers and this one raced against minor stk and alw... Who was faster and classier?
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
10-15-2010, 10:50 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quad
Breaking out my new toy Quad rater
Mike Sal is correct Best POH/POR Top 3 APV Class /Total Energy all Early or E/P running lines Thanks for the race Pete |
10-15-2010, 11:35 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Thanks guys...I was too quick to look for a pure OTE runner in this one. Yep Mike, I see what you're saying. When you add in the multiple call fighting shown by #2 that strengthens the case even more. And Bill, the advantage is shown nicely in your software readouts too.
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