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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 10-20-2014, 02:09 PM   #1
PeteC
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Spot Play Thread: Lone Early / Dominant Early

Please post PP's or links to PP's here for potential spot plays. Here is a link to a nice race by Bill V. that fits both aspects of this spot play, a lone early that also fought to the 1C in its last race...

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2957
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Old 11-02-2014, 04:02 PM   #2
PeteC
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11/05 - Pen 7th

This is a small but interesting race. The 1,2,5 and 6 come out of a FPLR tandem. The 5 fought through the 1st two calls and was only beaten 2 lengths or so by the tandem-winning 6 horse. Doesn't look like there are any other true earlies in this race...
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File Type: pdf 1105pen7.pdf (149.1 KB, 833 views)
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Old 11-04-2014, 11:53 AM   #3
jgibilaro
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I am new at this, so I will give it a try.
1-E
2-S
3-S
4-EP
5-E
6-S
The 1 out slow
The 2 out slow
The 3 doesn't look like he will keep up with the pace
The 4 out slow
The 5 I thought could win
The 6 thought he would have to come from to far back.
Please correct me where wrong. I am trying to learn this. Thank you
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Old 11-04-2014, 01:55 PM   #4
mowens33
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My thought is that the 5 will have some speed pressure, so I'm going OTE.
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Old 11-05-2014, 01:02 AM   #5
emilio840
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In this race it looks like the 5 is going to wire the field. He fought at the first 2 calls but the horse he fought with is not in this race so the 5 should not have any problem.

emilio
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Old 11-05-2014, 11:36 AM   #6
chuckg
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PEN 7 Nov 05

5 Brun B has never gotten a full length lead. So, I put his pace at one step ahead of the other two pressers. (3 and 4)

22.8 46.2

Name:  PEN 7 Nov 05.JPG
Views: 454
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At that pace 5 is caught by 3 at Str in 59.1

Looking to OTE.

6 One Ti is closest to pace positionally.

Betting 6 to Win.
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Old 11-05-2014, 06:37 PM   #7
The Pook
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My Winning Group:
(6,2,5)

Todays Projected Pace:
22.4/45.3

Early Scenario:
I eliminated the (4,3) as early horses not able to handle the early pace of 5. But overall I see the winner being OTE.

Tandems:
The (1) showed little in the last tandem so I eliminated him. (6,2) were top in the tandem.

Conclusion:
Bet (6,2) as the OTE's at sufficient odds.

Pook
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Old 11-05-2014, 09:41 PM   #8
mowens33
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Pete, nice spot play, not a bad payoff!

jgibilaro- looks like your on your way! Good Job!!

emilio- confident call! Nice!!

Mike
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Old 11-05-2014, 10:29 PM   #9
emilio840
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Thank you Mike

emilio
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Old 11-06-2014, 09:33 AM   #10
chuckg
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PEN 7 Nov 05 replay

Throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Race played out exactly as matched.

5 led 3 and 4 in 22.6 46.2

Name:  PEN 7 early.JPG
Views: 388
Size:  21.5 KB

3 Caught 5 in 58.9

Name:  PEN 7 Str.JPG
Views: 429
Size:  13.0 KB

But 3 did not pass 5

I quickly make the mistake of seeing equal pacelines and tossing all earlies. The assumption is that E will get tired and let P and S pass by. I do this in lot of races.

Should we be looking for a measurably faster paceline from the pressers? Any ideas on what tells us when the Early will not drain out?
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