Winning With Early-Huge Hillside Turf Score - Pace and Cap

Neil S. · 02-24-2018, 08:57 PM

I had been doing a lot of reviews of races won by Need To Lead types and found that FTL guidelines contenders that were both a NTL as well as the best EPR were worth wagering on if they went off at prices of 4-1 or better. Today in the finale at Santa Anita which was a hillside turf sprint I found a race which produced only 3 contenders with one of them fitting the criteria of this type of NTL runner. Here were my lines as well as well as the reasons for eliminating the other runners:

1. Princess Princess 10-1 -Last line which was a good third down the hill in a Graded event.
2. Miss Southern Miss 6-1 - Last Line which was a deep close win down the hill
3& 4 Scratched
5. Samba 5-2 - No line first race in the US
6. Anita Partner 20-1. No line due to odds
7. Gliding By 8-1- No line as no recent race at this distance
8. Malibu Stacy 15-1 - No line as no recent turf sprints
9. Scratched
10. Algorythmic. 6-1 - No line; hasn't raced since July
11. Mongolian Shopper 12-1- Last line which is a wire to wire score down the hill. A quick look shows consecutive wire to wire hill wins as well as 2 other such NTL wire wins.

Here are ranks for the 3 contenders:

1. 179.5. (2)
2. 180.5 (1)
11. 178.5 (3) NTL with best EPR

Normally I would key my top 2 here as both were 4-1 but I opted to key my top horse as well as the NTL betting 3 dollars on both to win and making 2 dollar exactas with my top picks over the contenders for a total investment of 14 dollars. The 11 dueled early for the lead with Malibu Stacy but just when I thought all was lost she shook clear passing the dirt crossing and drew off while the 1 rallied up the rail to complete the exacta. A 3 dollar win bet on a $48.20 mutuel coupled with the $400.60 exacta completed a nifty net profit of $458.90. I had managed only two modest winners prior to this and this was my last play of the day, so needless to say this was quite a wonderful way to end things.
Honestly the winner became glaring only because I used the FTL guidelines and eliminated most of the horses leaving me with only 3 contenders. Two horse bettors and exacta players could have easily gotten this result as the field was narrowed and the favorites were all eliminations.
I continue to be patient but as these results continue to pop up my resolve only strengthens. My win percentage is very low compared to most other players, but the ROI on my successful wagers has more than compensated me both psychologically and money wise.
Once again kudos for FTL for enabling me to see races differently and to profit from all of his years of hard work and research.

Neil

sureshotlink · 02-24-2018, 09:18 PM

Santa Anita
R10
$5.00
Exacta Box Box
1,2,11
$30.00
$0.00
$1,001.50
Resolved

I have been using FTL guidelines for the last six months. As mechanical and simple as it may seem you would be surprised how many longer priced horses it gets with out looking for that needle in the haystack or going way back in the time machine looking for a pace line.

Paul link
Los Angeles, CA

Neil S. · 02-24-2018, 09:23 PM

Excellent that someone else other than me was able to capitalize on this spot. Good job!!

dlivery · 02-24-2018, 09:41 PM

Im also a advocate to F T L plus and minus description of is this the line

Will only be a short time this will be come a natural for all of us to earn as we learn.

Good skill going forward

lone speed · 02-24-2018, 09:47 PM

Congratulations to both of you!!! Job well done.

Staying consistent in your methodology is key. It is the R.O.I that matters most. One can have a high win percentage but a low ROI...It would be like spinning wheels...

Depending on one's winning percentage and average priced mutuels; It might be best to only to wager on horses with odds that are higher than 3-1 or 7/2... This might be difficult during these times with computerized betting outfits and working at smaller racetracks....

Great work.....

Neil S. · 02-24-2018, 09:53 PM

I bet in advance using the ML odds to determine my value. Sometimes the horses get bet down or low odds runners drift up but I've noticed that over time this seems to even out. I think all of us felt we were doing something wrong if we didn't achieve the high percentages we have been reading about. I find that I can go for periods with nothing really happening and then all of a sudden there is an eruption. However I feel that staying consistent is more important and the money will come in time if one avoids the zigging and zagging.

sureshotlink · 02-24-2018, 09:53 PM

Likewise!

FLT guidelines also get you the winner of the 9th at Santa Anita at 7-1

Once you have the true contenders in the race let the tote board be your guide.

Paul

Bill V. · 02-24-2018, 11:48 PM

I decided to make all my bets today using FTL's Guidelines
and record my bets after each race

The good news is I did real well betting races from

Tampa, GP, AQU, SA, GG, and Mike Sal's match up race at very wet OP

The bad news is although I worked race 10 from SA down the hill
I was exhausted, and had a murderous headache so I passed race 10

Name: SA 10 This one is great but I did not bet.PNG
Views: 372
Size: 83.5 KB

I will post my report soon
Bless
Bill

Mitch44 · 02-25-2018, 07:36 AM

Not to be a contrarian here but after the fact we can all find a reason to have bet or have a longshot. Winners are easy after the fact and hindsight is always 100%.Also even as a contender most wouldn't bet a horse at those odds.

What I can honestly say is that the way I choose contenders this horse comes up ranked # 3 after scratches. BTW LT1 also would have had this one as a contender also. Would I have had or played it? In all honesty I can't say nor can any other unless you played it. The proof is in the pudding, its what is baked in before the taste test that counts not after the fact.

How else could this horse be gotten after the fact: if you love repeaters this horse won its last two races, won last two over the SA downhill course, improved from turf and consistent with 5 for 9 win & place(4 wins), 3 different jocks in last 3 races but if you play jocks and love Steward Elliot he's up today and your a big winner (I'm sure some lady played that and another probably liked its silks, Handily workout since last & within 9 days, only 1 point below the SR par for the race etc. etc.
Would a, should a & could a, isn't gone to put any $$ in your pocket.

From a phy. point if you believe in it then it may very well help you in the future if you make the bet.

Best of luck Bill in your quest. Handicapping is drudgery and even I attempt to streamline it through research. Its still a work in progress.
Mitch44

Neil S. · 02-25-2018, 08:16 AM

There are many methodologists whose paceline and contender selection process gets them far more winners than I do. But the beauty of the FTL guidelines is that for the first time in the many years I've used the Methodology I have landed on a solid and consistent strategy. Yes it goes through down periods but the upsides thus far have been incredible. As for posting results after the fact I can see your point, however as I have already stated I don't have any control over when a score is coming so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone whereas pointing out certain situations where a particular situation was profitable can be informative.

02-24-2018, 08:57 PM	#1
Neil S. Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Pembroke Pines, FL Posts: 170	Winning With Early-Huge Hillside Turf Score I had been doing a lot of reviews of races won by Need To Lead types and found that FTL guidelines contenders that were both a NTL as well as the best EPR were worth wagering on if they went off at prices of 4-1 or better. Today in the finale at Santa Anita which was a hillside turf sprint I found a race which produced only 3 contenders with one of them fitting the criteria of this type of NTL runner. Here were my lines as well as well as the reasons for eliminating the other runners: 1. Princess Princess 10-1 -Last line which was a good third down the hill in a Graded event. 2. Miss Southern Miss 6-1 - Last Line which was a deep close win down the hill 3& 4 Scratched 5. Samba 5-2 - No line first race in the US 6. Anita Partner 20-1. No line due to odds 7. Gliding By 8-1- No line as no recent race at this distance 8. Malibu Stacy 15-1 - No line as no recent turf sprints 9. Scratched 10. Algorythmic. 6-1 - No line; hasn't raced since July 11. Mongolian Shopper 12-1- Last line which is a wire to wire score down the hill. A quick look shows consecutive wire to wire hill wins as well as 2 other such NTL wire wins. Here are ranks for the 3 contenders: 1. 179.5. (2) 2. 180.5 (1) 11. 178.5 (3) NTL with best EPR Normally I would key my top 2 here as both were 4-1 but I opted to key my top horse as well as the NTL betting 3 dollars on both to win and making 2 dollar exactas with my top picks over the contenders for a total investment of 14 dollars. The 11 dueled early for the lead with Malibu Stacy but just when I thought all was lost she shook clear passing the dirt crossing and drew off while the 1 rallied up the rail to complete the exacta. A 3 dollar win bet on a $48.20 mutuel coupled with the $400.60 exacta completed a nifty net profit of $458.90. I had managed only two modest winners prior to this and this was my last play of the day, so needless to say this was quite a wonderful way to end things. Honestly the winner became glaring only because I used the FTL guidelines and eliminated most of the horses leaving me with only 3 contenders. Two horse bettors and exacta players could have easily gotten this result as the field was narrowed and the favorites were all eliminations. I continue to be patient but as these results continue to pop up my resolve only strengthens. My win percentage is very low compared to most other players, but the ROI on my successful wagers has more than compensated me both psychologically and money wise. Once again kudos for FTL for enabling me to see races differently and to profit from all of his years of hard work and research. Neil

02-24-2018, 09:41 PM	#4
dlivery Grade 1 Join Date: May 2009 Location: Thornhill ON Posts: 437	Im also a advocate to F T L plus and minus description of is this the line Will only be a short time this will be come a natural for all of us to earn as we learn. Good skill going forward __________________ May all wagers be Winners...

02-24-2018, 11:48 PM	#8
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	I am working on a very long post I decided to make all my bets today using FTL's Guidelines and record my bets after each race The good news is I did real well betting races from Tampa, GP, AQU, SA, GG, and Mike Sal's match up race at very wet OP The bad news is although I worked race 10 from SA down the hill I was exhausted, and had a murderous headache so I passed race 10 I will post my report soon Bless Bill

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02-24-2018, 09:18 PM	#2
sureshotlink Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: the great race place Posts: 205	Santa Anita R10 $5.00 Exacta Box Box 1,2,11 $30.00 $0.00 $1,001.50 Resolved I have been using FTL guidelines for the last six months. As mechanical and simple as it may seem you would be surprised how many longer priced horses it gets with out looking for that needle in the haystack or going way back in the time machine looking for a pace line. Paul link Los Angeles, CA

02-24-2018, 09:23 PM	#3
Neil S. Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Pembroke Pines, FL Posts: 170	Excellent that someone else other than me was able to capitalize on this spot. Good job!!

02-24-2018, 09:47 PM	#5
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Congratulations to both of you!!! Job well done. Staying consistent in your methodology is key. It is the R.O.I that matters most. One can have a high win percentage but a low ROI...It would be like spinning wheels... Depending on one's winning percentage and average priced mutuels; It might be best to only to wager on horses with odds that are higher than 3-1 or 7/2... This might be difficult during these times with computerized betting outfits and working at smaller racetracks.... Great work.....

02-24-2018, 09:53 PM	#6
Neil S. Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Pembroke Pines, FL Posts: 170	I bet in advance using the ML odds to determine my value. Sometimes the horses get bet down or low odds runners drift up but I've noticed that over time this seems to even out. I think all of us felt we were doing something wrong if we didn't achieve the high percentages we have been reading about. I find that I can go for periods with nothing really happening and then all of a sudden there is an eruption. However I feel that staying consistent is more important and the money will come in time if one avoids the zigging and zagging.

02-25-2018, 07:36 AM	#9
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Not to be a contrarian here but after the fact we can all find a reason to have bet or have a longshot. Winners are easy after the fact and hindsight is always 100%.Also even as a contender most wouldn't bet a horse at those odds. What I can honestly say is that the way I choose contenders this horse comes up ranked # 3 after scratches. BTW LT1 also would have had this one as a contender also. Would I have had or played it? In all honesty I can't say nor can any other unless you played it. The proof is in the pudding, its what is baked in before the taste test that counts not after the fact. How else could this horse be gotten after the fact: if you love repeaters this horse won its last two races, won last two over the SA downhill course, improved from turf and consistent with 5 for 9 win & place(4 wins), 3 different jocks in last 3 races but if you play jocks and love Steward Elliot he's up today and your a big winner (I'm sure some lady played that and another probably liked its silks, Handily workout since last & within 9 days, only 1 point below the SR par for the race etc. etc. Would a, should a & could a, isn't gone to put any $$ in your pocket. From a phy. point if you believe in it then it may very well help you in the future if you make the bet. Best of luck Bill in your quest. Handicapping is drudgery and even I attempt to streamline it through research. Its still a work in progress. Mitch44

02-25-2018, 08:16 AM	#10
Neil S. Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Pembroke Pines, FL Posts: 170	There are many methodologists whose paceline and contender selection process gets them far more winners than I do. But the beauty of the FTL guidelines is that for the first time in the many years I've used the Methodology I have landed on a solid and consistent strategy. Yes it goes through down periods but the upsides thus far have been incredible. As for posting results after the fact I can see your point, however as I have already stated I don't have any control over when a score is coming so to provide readers with 8 losing scenarios wouldn't be beneficial to anyone whereas pointing out certain situations where a particular situation was profitable can be informative.