Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-02-2012, 04:07 AM   #41
partsnut
BetMix User
 
partsnut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,433
The method I am using is not a Sartin method so please forgive my intrusion.
I frequently use Sartin software but I also use other methods that I feel would be more conducive to the situation at hand.
When I'm looking for value and looking for a single winner in real time, this method fits the occasion and surpasses most software applications.
I have narrowed down the field to three possible contenders..

Hansen..............(6)
Bodemeister........(6)
Creative Cause....(5)

I will wait until a few minutes before post time and subtract the number in parenthesis from each of the listed horses odds ranking and look for the horse that has a 2+ point advantage. This will be my value play.
Ex. If Hansen is the favorite (#1 in the odds ranking) his total would be (1-6 = -5)

The method I am using is something that I have been using for years and is proprietary and for my use only. I use it for win betting only.
I have found this method to be quite effective for value play in real time.
Let's see how it turns out.

Last edited by partsnut; 05-02-2012 at 04:19 AM.
partsnut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2012, 06:55 AM   #42
trotman
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
Well here we are 1 day before the Derby and it is even more messy now than earlier in the week so I will go on record as saying the best horse or luckiest horse will win. I've talked with a clocker who is well respected that I've known for some time and he has said if he was to say which horse has impressed him the most this week it has been Daddy Nose Best. Has looked very professional all week and well seasoned, quite possibly peaking at the right time. Creative Cause has a minor foot injury that happened on the trip to Kentucky. He has missed some time on the track and his work was terrible so if he scratches it would not be a surprize. With half of the field of 20 and all with a chance, really the race to me offers no value. To those that just have to get in some action best of luck.
__________________
"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall"
trotman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2012, 10:25 AM   #43
SilentRun
Grade 1 Aspiree
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
My Take On The Race

Using RDSS 2.0 the results are shown below.


Ernie
Attached Images
 
SilentRun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2012, 10:40 AM   #44
SilentRun
Grade 1 Aspiree
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
My Take On The Race

With reference to my picks I used the last line for all contenders which falls under the standard Sartin concept ...go with the last line unless there is a reason not to. I also used the New Pace screen and looked at the Quirin Speed Points (QSP) and Composite Speed Ratings (CSR).

Three contenders have a QSP rating of 7 ....Gemologist, Bodemeister and Hansen.

The top down CSR contenders are: Gemologist - 200, Alpha and Hansen - 199, Bodemeister - 198 and Dullahan - 197. Union rags is weaker with 194.

Personally I like Bodemeister, Alpha and Gemologist.

Good Luck with your picks

Ernie
SilentRun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2012, 12:19 AM   #45
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
In the spirit of remembering Doc Sartin and to reiterate some of his work on the winning profiles of past Derby winners, I like to repost a link to a post by Stormbringer...

link from rdss post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6794

Doc mentioned that Ferdinand was the only Derby winner to have a qualifying line from a mile prep race. Imho,,,I think Sea Hero should be in the same sentence. Ted Craven mentioned that times might be changing in terms of getting the Derby winners in the top two Hidden/Sustained...It might be that trainers today, are running less prep races than before....then again, many longstanding rules have been broken recently: no geldings(Funny Cide).....last race 5 weeks before Derby (Barbaro),,,,,less than 5 previous lifetime starts...(Big Brown)....

Like Doc Sartin said, the Derby distance is an unique race where sustained energy dominates...our quest is to find the best sustained lines...Doc had lay out some fundamental guidelines...but I think it may be best, if we seek the power lines wherever it might be, outside of Sartin's parameters....



Good Skills to everyone....
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Oaks/ Derby weekend Stakes races with Multiple "E" runners RichieP Matchup Discussion 43 05-23-2011 01:54 PM
MatchUP intuition is "Primary", MatchUP mathematics is "Corollary"/Secondary VoodooFan Matchup Discussion 41 02-27-2011 03:05 PM
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles Ted Craven Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 03-22-2010 06:06 PM
Release Notes - Version 0.98.7 Ted Craven RDSS Info, Reference 2 07-17-2009 11:09 AM
Sartin Workshop 3/19/1989 admin Audio Collection 2 05-26-2008 09:47 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:46 PM.