|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
03-07-2014, 09:13 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
|
Bill
Sorry but I had shifted focus to the 3rd race. You are on the 7th. No wonder I was confused. Maybe I should have started a new thread. Thanks for your effort. You guys are good. Pook |
10-14-2014, 11:50 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
|
Better late than never?
Hi Ted- I was going through some old posts and saw your question. Sorry that I missed it originally!
Anyway, I don't have the full PP's but based on the two horses you posted and your comments here is what I gather: 1) You projected the pace as 22.8 45.4 off of the last line of the 6 horse. 2) You feel the race will go OTE because of the presence of other early runners who can match that pace. 3) You wanted to go against the 8 horse at low odds because it ran early in its last 2 races against a pace slower than today. All of that makes good sense, there is only one piece that I might add for future consideration.. And, granted, I can't see the whole field and this is 7 months later... The only thing I would say for the 8 is that even though it ran early in its last 2, it has finished close running OTE in previous races. Those races were also against a faster 1C like you project today. One thing to consider when you project a 1C time is to also project what position a horse might be in today against that pace. Then try to find a line where it found itself in a similar position. For example, if you think today's pace is 22.8, how many horses will be in front of the 8 at the 1C? If he might be sitting 4th or so, against a 22.8, then I would at least consider how lines 4 or 5 match up to the other OTE contenders. I'm definitely not saying I would have had this horse, because I know I've thrown out more than my share like this one, thinking the same as you did: that this horse will try to run early and be burned off. However, it definitely pays to give a second look to horses who show wins/close finishes with multiple styles. In the case of the 8, we know if it finds itself in 4th against a faster pace like today, it is capable of rallying. Hope that helps! Thanks for all of your great work with this site too!! |
10-15-2014, 07:41 AM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
|
PeteC, even though it took 7 months your post was well worth the wait!
Excellent Post!! Thanks, Mike |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
20 Race Cycles - For Beginners and Old Alike | Because I Can Jim | Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) | 1 | 04-13-2017 03:56 PM |
Races of the Derby Trail , Can we look them over? | pktruckdriver | Races of Interest | 10 | 03-10-2012 06:26 PM |
Tampa Bay Friday March 5, | raceman5 | Selections | 11 | 03-05-2010 04:36 PM |
Tampa Thursday March 4, 10 | raceman5 | Selections | 24 | 03-04-2010 04:45 PM |
Tampa Wed March 3 | raceman5 | Selections | 20 | 03-04-2010 11:44 AM |