Problem Races Discussion

[Latekick]

Id like to discuss two races, both from today Wed the 5th.
Both races are from Saratoga and they are the 9th and 10th race.
My selections were nowhere in the 9th and the winner to me looked hard to get, and in the 10th race i ran 2nd but once again the winner would have taken some digging.
I will post my readouts and screenshots for both races either later tonight or tomorrow morning but i would like some of you, the members, to work the 9th and 10th and let me know what horses you get and WHY! Please don't cheat and look at the results or if you DID have the winner just post the readouts as they were, i looking to improve off of these two races and honesty is required. So feel free to post who your selections were and your readouts and i am looking forward to seeing if i just so happened to be the only one that was wrong Lol!

[Rverge]

in the 10th my bl/bl was 11 8 7 4. i did not bet as i was sauting onions and missed the race. the 11 was short for me. in the 9th i went with the 10 as a dime a day bet. i never considered the 5

[The Pook]

Latekick I don't know if my screenshots will help because I'm not looking at BL/BL etc., just matching from raw data. Might help to know that you weren't the only one who missed both. I went 0/7 between Saratoga and Delaware today

Pook

In the 9th as my screenshot shows I saw the 3 as lone or dominant early.



And then in the 10th I saw OTE of which 2 was my top choice between 2 and 6 based on positioning.

[Lt1]

In the 9th I had the winner as my 5th pick. I felt that this race looked like a tune up for a route but that he might finish 2nd or 3rd since he was my #2 lp horse. If one used its only sprint a 7f win 613 days ago the horse was #1 bl/bl. I'm not adverse to going back but in this case since it was coming off of a layoff of 278 days and had been routing in it's last 8 I did not. In race 10 my order was 11-6-10-7. Since the 7 was coming off a mdn win with a weak tt I felt he would be a candidate for the underneath spots only.
Tim

[Latekick]

My take on the two races is, you cant win EVERY race. It is possible to win majority of races, but in order to stay consistent I must stay consistent with what I do and by working these two races JUST like I work every other race, I just cant get the winner. AND that is FINE! Id prefer to lose these two races back to back while taking a winning consistent approach rather than win these two races and lose my next 8 because of an inconsistent approach to STAB at horses and not follow both the guidelines that have been preached throughout the site and also guidelines I have made in my own selection process.
Anyway, im having trouble uploading my readouts because my computer keep saying its unable to upload because of the size of the picture, but once I get that all figured out ill post it here.
Ill continue to use this thread as a place to post races that leave me scratching my head, feel free to do the same

[DontSayDont]

The following comments are not just about races 9 and 10 but the entire card at Saratoga yesterday.

When reviewing races and why your picks didn't finish as your print out predicted, remember to read the result chart. I think I read a quote in the match up about not reviewing the races you lost but only the ones you win, to see what you found right about them.

I also seem to remember one poster who had a large database the indicated horses coming off layoff of greater than 90 days won only 2-5%. Having a large database on this might skew the results of how layoff horses are prepped in the present day. My example of this is from yesterday at Saratoga. Race #5 and the place horse had been off 298 days, Race 6 the place horse off 60 days, Race 9 the W-P and S horses had been off 278-222-80 days in that order. Just the opposite in Race 7 where the W-P horses were both FTS (first time starters), one the favorite in the field the other had to be long as it paid $12.40 to place with the favorite winning.

Race 10 had 3 horses that all seemed would want the lead and cause the race to go OTE but the result chart would refute that idea. Richiebythelinks was the 4th favorite on the tote at 4.70:1 and this is from the result chart,"fell to his face at the start, spotted rest of the field about 3 lengths, moved up under some urging, went 3 to 4 wide early on the turn, floated 6 wide outside the 1/4 pole and faltered, then was eased inside the final furlong but walked off." If I was to review that race in RDSS, I think I would "scratch" Richiebythelinks and see what that does to the contenders list. I know he is not scratched but certainly did not affect the outcome of the race as we predicted if he doesn't have the problems he did.

That left David Rocks and Francis Freud to challenge for the lead, but David Rocks was able to get a clear lead and he was able to wire the field. He was a horse many would not use as he was a JBM (just broke maiden) from a MdClming race, but got the trip he required. The trainer/jockey combination was above average (Bruce Levine and Kendrick Carmouche).

One of my problems has been with the long layoff horses. They seem to win more in this present day and age. I am not refuting the person's database but wonder what the percentage of wins, places or good showings might be now compared to say even 5 years ago. Still it is hard to know what pace line they might run to when off over 200 days or so. Then in the case of Race 9, they don't show a race at a sprint or route that they will be competing in today.

I wouldn't feel bad about having a rough day yesterday, which I did, as I try to remember that every horse in the race has some chance of winning, if the conditions of the race go their way. Overall there were many unfortunate trips for many horses in all the races yesterday and if you had them, well, better luck today or tomorrow. The skill you have now will do the rest.

Edited to add: The place horse in Race 10 was 103 dslr (days since last race).

[Mark]

The 9th race on this Saratoga card was what would have been called a Classified Allowance race 20 years ago. A race written for top class horses with specific conditions that excluded recent winners of specific race types. This race excluded all Graded stakes winners in 2015. In American racing there are a number of marque female races. Looking at the #5 horse's pps in the Trip notes you see: The Kentucky Oaks, The Acorn, The Coaching Club American, The Alabama and the Breeders' Cup Distaff. This filly/mare had run very well against the very best of her sex for the last 2 years and beaten most of them. She just had the misfortune to be born the same year as UNTAPABLE, arguably the best of her generation. In her second lifetime start she ran at today's distance in a time that would win today 1:21.9 AS A 2 YEAR OLD. Look at her workouts: 59 days ago she worked 5f in 59.6 that was her 2nd published work so they did most of the foundation work at the farm. If you look at the #3 you see a very traditional work pattern for a laid off horse, two 3f, two 4f, 5f, then 6f then a 3f blowout 7 days ago. Horses have to convert cartilage in their Cannon bones to solid bone before working at longer distances at racing speeds. Both of these fillies have been prepared by good competent horsemen. Dallas Stewart generally has a horse in the Kentucky Derby most years and annually is in the top 10 in money won.
Highly competitive top quality horses don't really know that a race is the first or the fifth race after layoff. When the race is being run the juices are flowing and their only limitation is their conditioning. They may tire prematurely. Additionally, a horse returning from a lengthy layoff is fresh, healthy and you can generally rely on the fact that they are sound and whatever ailed them is no longer an issue. In the hands of good horsemen that know their horses and in the absence of comparable quality horses as mandated by the race conditions, it really becomes a matter of price. 7/2 on the #5 was a gift.

[Latekick]

Going to start this up again, this time from today Thursday the 6th.
Race 3, let me know what you guys had and if you had the winner or who you had. I personally did not have the winner based off of his last 2 lines he showed nothing whatsoever although at higher class the horse still didn't look like it deserved a line so i didn't give one. Let me know how you guys saw it

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Going to start this up again, this time from today Thursday the 6th.
Race 3, let me know what you guys had and if you had the winner or who you had. I personally did not have the winner based off of his last 2 lines he showed nothing whatsoever although at higher class the horse still didn't look like it deserved a line so i didn't give one. Let me know how you guys saw it

I'm just guessing you might not mean Saratoga Race 3 ... today Aug 6?

Because the winner #1 Louie's Luck did not look like what you described ...

Which track again?

Ted

[Latekick]

Ted i beleive i ment the same race, race 3 today at Saratoga. The winner had not hit the board in its last two starts an i was not impressed with its lines although it was dropping, so i didnt use a line.
I will double check when i get home.