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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 03-20-2010, 08:01 PM   #21
Ted Craven
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Thanks for all the videos Charlie!

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Old 03-20-2010, 08:08 PM   #22
pktruckdriver
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Nice Race, great finish, does this make Ice Box a derby Favorite?

Thanks guys on the book info, I will get it soon enough, right now I am making my way thru the Follow-ups, this time more slowly than before, and taking notes along the way.

Seems Doc is very high on the PMA, the Dr. Peale also touted, thou he did not apply horse racing to his teachings, so I am also trying to get my life in order so when I begin winning, I be ready for it, but this patience and practice, will produce awesome results.

Bob had the top 5 horses, the tri and exacta, if boxing 5 would be productive, this time it would been, but normally, I think not, what do you guys think?

Thanks again Guys
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Old 03-20-2010, 09:10 PM   #23
Bill V.
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Fd

Nice work Bob C having the winner in your mix

Pat .. The winner and place horse in the Florida Derby
are always horses to consider in the Sartin Methodology
Kentucy Derby guidelines
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Old 03-20-2010, 10:16 PM   #24
SilentRun
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Grade Level Class

Good analysis Bob on Top APV and class.

This supports that it is all about class at the Grade Level. The allowance and MSW contenders, however impressive that their wins and numbers were, could not get to the Grade level horses.
A lesson to remember.

Ernie

Last edited by SilentRun; 03-20-2010 at 10:18 PM. Reason: Add text
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Old 03-21-2010, 10:41 AM   #25
alydar_ David
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Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
Good analysis Bob on Top APV and class.

This supports that it is all about class at the Grade Level. The allowance and MSW contenders, however impressive that their wins and numbers were, could not get to the Grade level horses.
A lesson to remember.

Ernie
Possibly, but I'm not so sure about that. If you'll recall Alysheba, one of the greatest horses to ever live, was eligible for a NW2 race when he won the Kentucky Derby (and that was after falling to his knees and recovering).

It would be interesting to see how many horses that "didn't belong" have won Grade 1 races. Maybe Tom could tell us?
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Old 03-21-2010, 11:55 AM   #26
Bob Cochran
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Florida Derby

One of the problems you have with 3yr old (only) races is, which horse is on the lmprove, and how much will it improve in today's race.

I feel the most productive way to play these type races in exotics, is to BOX! Of course,the odds must be sufficient to warrant a wager.

Later in the year, after July, their numbers are true indications of what to expect.
IMHO
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Old 03-21-2010, 12:18 PM   #27
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Possibly, but I'm not so sure about that. If you'll recall Alysheba, one of the greatest horses to ever live, was eligible for a NW2 race when he won the Kentucky Derby (and that was after falling to his knees and recovering).

It would be interesting to see how many horses that "didn't belong" have won Grade 1 races. Maybe Tom could tell us?
It is true that Alysheba had a less than spectacular two-year-old season, winning only a maiden race. He also did not perform very well at the start of his 3 year old campaign.

And then they found the reason for this continuing lack of success. The horse had an “entrapped epiglottis”. Now I’m not a doctor or a vet, but my understanding of that condition is that it is basically a “breathing problem”. It is doubtful that any horse is going to run very far, very fast if it can’t breathe properly. Surgery was performed and the condition corrected before the Kentucky Derby and the rest as they say “is history”.

So unless you know the horse the horse you are about to bet in the “Derby”, that is still eligible for a “NW2L” condition, hasn’t been able to breathe in its’ prior races, it might be best to stick with horses that have been successful at similar class levels.
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Old 03-21-2010, 03:22 PM   #28
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It is true that Alysheba had a less than spectacular two-year-old season, winning only a maiden race. He also did not perform very well at the start of his 3 year old campaign.

And then they found the reason for this continuing lack of success. The horse had an “entrapped epiglottis”. Now I’m not a doctor or a vet, but my understanding of that condition is that it is basically a “breathing problem”. It is doubtful that any horse is going to run very far, very fast if it can’t breathe properly. Surgery was performed and the condition corrected before the Kentucky Derby and the rest as they say “is history”.

So unless you know the horse the horse you are about to bet in the “Derby”, that is still eligible for a “NW2L” condition, hasn’t been able to breathe in its’ prior races, it might be best to stick with horses that have been successful at similar class levels.
That's certainly insightful, For The Lead. Thank you.

What I was wondering about was the frequency and payouts of three-year- olds, specifically in the major prep races leading up and including the Kentucky Derby.

My seat of the pants observation (which may be completely amiss) is that excluding these young horses that "don't fit" may be costing you some serious money.
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Old 03-23-2010, 07:57 PM   #29
Bill Lyster
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A little more work needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Cochran View Post
One of the problems you have with 3yr old (only) races is, which horse is on the lmprove, and how much will it improve in today's race.

I feel the most productive way to play these type races in exotics, is to BOX! Of course,the odds must be sufficient to warrant a wager.

Later in the year, after July, their numbers are true indications of what to expect.
IMHO
Bob Cochran
I echo Bob's comments, but at this time of year if you have access to them I suggest looking at the race replays for moves that might not be adequately recognized even in the charts. I googled the Florida Derby and found the race video.

When I first heard the results of the Fla Derby I mentally noted that the first two finishers had been beaten in the Fountain of Youth by 10 and 12 lengths. So I did not think there would be much to compare.

The FOY had a final time of about 148.9 give or take the the Derby was 149.19. The FOY had a 112 pace vs a 110 pace at 6f mark for the F Derby. But similar to the Derby both Ice Box and the place horse made strong visual moves against the slower pace about up to the top of the stretch. Mid way on the turn in the FOY Ice Box was charging hard, but just could not keep it up, but he was showing that he wanted to gain ground on the turn. So ultimately, he improved about 8-10 lengths to win the Derby. The only way I could have got him was to have seen the video before the race and made a strong note about improvement.

In retrospect, I also noted that all the contenders that I had (all finished up the track mind you) had E/L numbers just at or below -10. I don't have a GP model, but in many places the E/L model for 9 furlong races is -20 or better (-20 to -30), so it is possible to look for longer priced horses with suitable E/L's closer to the winning range for the distance. Just another little tool that sometimes gets overlooked (and I did overlook it here).

Recall that Howard Sartin often said that the K Derby was won by the most sustained horses and so horses that are exhibiting this trait before the derby and in the prep races deserve a little longer look.


Regards,

Bill
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Old 03-23-2010, 11:45 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
I echo Bob's comments, but at this time of year if you have access to them I suggest looking at the race replays for moves that might not be adequately recognized even in the charts. I googled the Florida Derby and found the race video.

When I first heard the results of the Fla Derby I mentally noted that the first two finishers had been beaten in the Fountain of Youth by 10 and 12 lengths. So I did not think there would be much to compare.

The FOY had a final time of about 148.9 give or take the the Derby was 149.19. The FOY had a 112 pace vs a 110 pace at 6f mark for the F Derby. But similar to the Derby both Ice Box and the place horse made strong visual moves against the slower pace about up to the top of the stretch. Mid way on the turn in the FOY Ice Box was charging hard, but just could not keep it up, but he was showing that he wanted to gain ground on the turn. So ultimately, he improved about 8-10 lengths to win the Derby. The only way I could have got him was to have seen the video before the race and made a strong note about improvement.

In retrospect, I also noted that all the contenders that I had (all finished up the track mind you) had E/L numbers just at or below -10. I don't have a GP model, but in many places the E/L model for 9 furlong races is -20 or better (-20 to -30), so it is possible to look for longer priced horses with suitable E/L's closer to the winning range for the distance. Just another little tool that sometimes gets overlooked (and I did overlook it here).

Recall that Howard Sartin often said that the K Derby was won by the most sustained horses and so horses that are exhibiting this trait before the derby and in the prep races deserve a little longer look.


Regards,

Bill
As is usually the case, the answer lies in the fractions in each race and how the two races were run. First the fractions, which I have rounded up and displayed in fifths of a second.
Florida Derby = 23.4,48.0,112.2,149
Fount/Youth = 23.1,46.2,110.4,149.1

As you can see, the final times are one fifth apart, which equals 1 length. Very little difference. So why was Ice Box able to close in basically the same final time in one race and not the other? Not surprisingly, the answer is in the fractions.

In the Fountain of Youth, the eventual winner was running comfortably in second place about 1 length behind the leader for the first half of a mile. The quarter mile fraction being 3/5ths of a second slower than in the "derby". The half mile fraction was 1.3 seconds slower than the"derby". At this point in the race the eventual winner goes for the lead and makes it to the 3/4 mile mark in 112.2, which again is 1.3 seconds slower than the "derby". There is little wonder that when Ice Box attempted to move coming to the 3/4 mile mark he was not able to gain any ground on the leader. The leader had as much left in the tank as he did and, of course, went on to win by open lengths.

The "derby" presented a much different scenario. Almost from the gate there were two horses head and head for the lead. First to the quarter time that was 3/5ths of a second faster than the Fountain of Youth, then to the half mile time that was 1.3 seconds faster than the Fountain of Youth. Coming to the 3/4 mark one of the leaders showed its' dominance, but in a time 1.3 seconds faster than in the Fountain of Youth. It is this scenario that caused the leader to begin to tire from its' early efforts and back up through the stretch, allowing Ice Box to pass it.

The answer is, in the Fountain of Youth the time from the 3/4 mark to the finish is 36.3. In the "derby" the same time was 38.2. The slower horse early in the race in the "derby" had 1.4 seconds (almost 9 lengths) with which to make up ground on a tiring front runner. This was not the case in the Fountain of Youth. Pace, does indeed, make the race.
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