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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 05-06-2012, 08:00 PM   #11
SilentRun
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Originally Posted by Mr.Pagine View Post
Ernie - I am extremely interested in your findings, as I am unsure why the difference in TE.

Thanks,
JD
Sorry, I don't have an answer as this is still an open issue as per my last post.

Ernie
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Old 05-06-2012, 08:41 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
Thanks for your response,

which does not alter the question for me which is..........

How does the program that you and Bill used specifically compute Total Energy ????

As I understand RDSS simply computes Total Energy = F1 + F2 +F3.

Using the data for Horse 15 (2nd panel below)) TE = 56.9 + 54.6 + 53.8 = 165.3 (RDSS shows 165.2 which may result from rounding)

Your program resulted in TE = 159.xx (Siginificant Difference). This was critical for the Derby as your program correclty eliminated the 11 & 15 horses from contention.
So now I am not comfortable with this situation.

Ernie
ENERGY is a SARTIN program.
I doubt that it computes TE in any other way.
If you looked at the last race I posted for the 11, 15 an 19, I think it is clear that the 11 and 15 were much slower off their last race, 150.4 for the 11 & 15 vs. 147.4 for the 19, all at 9 furlongs. A full 3 seconds slower.

You know, I download races every day and things get calculated "automatically" by my program, but I'm real glad that I got started with all this back in the days when it DIDN'T happen automatically. In those days you had no choice but to look as you manually entered pacelines and chose an ESP for each runner. You learned to see more than most people do today. It's a habit that has stayed with me.

Anyway, I hope this helps.
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Old 05-06-2012, 09:45 PM   #13
Bill V.
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Fps

Hi Ernie

Your corrrect RDSS and all Sartin programs calculate total energy the same
F1 + F2 + F3 Feet Per Second numbers

The difference is RDSS Adjusted Normalized and Equalizes the numbers
and RDSS users live and die with how "Sartin Downs " says the numbers should
be adjusted.

Thanks To FTL for posting the RAW times. With his help I was able to
enter the lines into VALM ( Validator hand entry ) I did this because as you can see from the screen shot, pushing the 2 menu option we see the FPS numbers

The WOOD Alpa and GEM get a 159 Total Energy
I'll Have Another from the much faster Santa Anita gets a 164
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Old 05-06-2012, 10:19 PM   #14
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This thread was a good education for this year's Derby...Many thanks to FTL and Bill V.
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Old 05-06-2012, 11:22 PM   #15
SilentRun
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Ernie

Your corrrect RDSS and all Sartin programs calculate total energy the same
F1 + F2 + F3 Feet Per Second numbers

The difference is RDSS Adjusted Normalized and Equalizes the numbers
and RDSS users live and die with how "Sartin Downs " says the numbers should
be adjusted.

Thanks To FTL for posting the RAW times. With his help I was able to
enter the lines into VALM ( Validator hand entry ) I did this because as you can see from the screen shot, pushing the 2 menu option we see the FPS numbers

The WOOD Alpa and GEM get a 159 Total Energy
I'll Have Another from the much faster Santa Anita gets a 164
Attachment 26866
Bill
Thanks again FTL and Bill for your feedback.

Since the Total Energy is computed exactly the same way in the programs the discrepancy is in the source for the RAW times.

The only conclusion that I see is that the RAW times that were provided by FTL for Alpha and Gemologist for L1 was more accurate then the times provided by Trackmaster thus inflating the Total Energy numbers for Alpha and Gemologist which elevated the horses to a higher contender status then they deserved. So if this is true for the Derby then my thought is..........how many times has this happened before and can you really trust the accuracy of the Trackmaster RAW times ?????

Is my thinking correct here ? Anybody have any idea about this ?

Ernie
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Old 05-07-2012, 12:20 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Ernie


The difference is RDSS Adjusted Normalized and Equalizes the numbers
and RDSS users live and die with how "Sartin Downs " says the numbers should be adjusted.


Bill
This following overrides my above post.

As Bill stated above the Adjusted, Normalization and Equalization in RDSS is the probable cause of the discrepancy rather than the the possibilty of different RAW numbers. The premises is : Whatever algorithm RDSS is using changes the times and hence changes the TE numbers which can elevate or reduce a horse from a non-contender to a contender and vice versa.

For whatever reason of the root cause of the discrepancy ...........
The TE is a primary decision making number and for now I am hesitant to use it.

Ernie

Last edited by SilentRun; 05-07-2012 at 12:23 AM.
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Old 05-07-2012, 01:14 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
Thanks again FTL and Bill for your feedback.

Since the Total Energy is computed exactly the same way in the programs the discrepancy is in the source for the RAW times.

The only conclusion that I see is that the RAW times that were provided by FTL for Alpha and Gemologist for L1 was more accurate then the times provided by Trackmaster thus inflating the Total Energy numbers for Alpha and Gemologist which elevated the horses to a higher contender status then they deserved. So if this is true for the Derby then my thought is..........how many times has this happened before and can you really trust the accuracy of the Trackmaster RAW times ?????

Is my thinking correct here ? Anybody have any idea about this ?

Ernie
I have been downloading from TRACKMASTER for 15 years.

Their numbers are rock solid.
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Old 05-07-2012, 02:04 AM   #18
SilentRun
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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
I have been downloading from TRACKMASTER for 15 years.

Their numbers are rock solid.
I realized this was a poor assumption but it was too late to modify it. I noted in my subsequent post that my latest post was to override this. look at my following post where Bill mentions the reason for the discrepancy as the equalization, normalization or overall "messaging" of the data

Ernie
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Old 05-07-2012, 12:19 PM   #19
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Kentucky Derby

Following are some screenshots in KGEN, 4 Call Energy, and THOROMATION. Also this would be a redboard as it comes after the fact.You will notice I did not enter Hansen or Take Charge Indy as I didn't consider either them as win contenders, because of other speed type horses that compromise their chances. Screenshots follow.
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Old 05-07-2012, 12:21 PM   #20
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Kentucky Derby

More Screenshots follow.
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