Anybody looking at Tampa March 7, 2014 - Races 1 & 7

[Segwin]

Ha! - Been there done that (on numerous occasions)

Chess anyone?

[Ted Craven]

Pete C - if you're reading this, I greatly respect your Matchup skills! If you have access to the PPs on TAM R7, or can make head or tails of the 2 PPs I posted above, do you have any thoughts on why one might have thought the #8 Early horse might have survived, and the race still have run Early?

Just curious, and willing to learn Matchup nuances. Of course, stuff sometimes does just happen ...

TIA,

Ted

[Segwin]

Everything is always clear while your viewing from the rear view mirror - having said that...

8 - the second line back finished 1st, by 8.5, at 1:24

6 - although early fades somewhat.

I notice that 8 is 1 in LPR while 6th is 4th. I haven't seen the replay but I would imagine that there was a battle and the 8 had the late kick to overcome ??? 8 was also #1 in CSR while 6 was 4th.

My 2 cents - your mileage may vary.

[The Pook]

I was against the 8 too in the 7th for the same reasons.

Another point of interest at Tampa today I thought was in the 3rd. I had the 2 as the pacesetter early horse being overtaken. I set the fulcrum at 22.4,45.6 from adjusted times 2 back.

Today the horse gets away with 23.2, 47.4 and is not caught for $9.80.

I know the horse is a lone early and maybe that is enough but what indicators am I missing in RDSS that might have showed a more relaxed pace so that 2 would hang on against the match-up today. Not something it usually does. I figured on 7,1,6,5 to catch. 1 came second.

Would love to show a couple of screen shots like Ted does, but mine doesn't seem to work.

[Segwin]

Pook - what version of Windows are you on?

Do a search for the snipping tool in windows. With this tool you can screen capture.

[Bill V.]

Just for another look,

I am working with another fellow using KGEN so I have the race
run in thoromation

Pook I set the fulcrum at 45.4 from horse 6 line 1
but the 6 is not a contender into KGEN because its speed rating is too slow
My 4 contenders were 1 5 7 and 8
The Kgen energy generator labels the 5 as a lone E
the other 3 are a OTE

Thoromation calls it 7 8 1

here is thoromtion

produce.mp4

[The Pook]

Terry

I am running XP inside Parallels inside Mac OSX. Maybe it's not possible. Not really that familiar with the Windows environment.

Pook

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Terry

I am running XP inside Parallels inside Mac OSX. Maybe it's not possible. Not really that familiar with the Windows environment.

Pook

Here is an excellent program for doing screen captures and editing SnagIt

Ted recommended his a while back - great program.

[The Pook]

Bill, how do you get a fulcrum out of the 6 at 45.4 when the adjusted time for that race is one second slower than that. The horse has never been on the lead.

And KGen sets 5 as a lone E? It has never had the lead in the PP's.

Just asking.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Bill, how do you get a fulcrum out of the 6 at 45.4 when the adjusted time for that race is one second slower than that. The horse has never been on the lead.

And KGen sets 5 as a lone E? It has never had the lead in the PP's.

Just asking.

You ask good questions, I will adress the fulcrum here now, but I will answer your KGEN Energy excretions questions in regards to the 5 being a lone early
contender, down in the Old Sartin Programs area
This way we can keep this thread on this race not the values of Doc's older programs.
Give me some time for the KGEN part of your question ,

As far as the fulcrum in this race,

The first step in how I find the fulcrum is to look at the
LAST line only. This is right out of the Sartin Methodology book
Pace Makes The Race -
I am not setting the projected pace here I just want to see which horse
ran against the fastest pace of race second call from the last paceline
There is one catch first The horse must have been less than 5 BL or less
at both the second call and final time

Here is every horses last line
Question, Who ran against the fastest second call and was less than 5 BL at the second call and final time ?
Answer Horse 6 AGAINST a 45.4
Notice we don't add beaten becaus e we are just seeing who can run competitively after facing a 45.4 second call

That is the fulcrum method,




Now lets look at the Adjusted TPR numbers with BL added in
who has the best EP ranking Its # 6 95.5 We have determined that horse 6
qualifies on beaten lengths right ? So Horse 6 was on the lead so it was the
Pace of race. Therefore my fulcrum was 45.4 raw or 95.5 adjusted



Thanks
Bill