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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 07-07-2014, 10:09 AM   #11
Bill V.
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Nice

Quote:
Originally Posted by atkinsrr View Post
This is the second time in my racing career that I've bet a filly against the boys...normally I will not do that but I was really high on the #14 ..was really disappointed with the odds..didn't think that she would be under 4/1. also had her on a p4 ticket with the 15, 10, 4, and 6...way to go guys...good job...Ted we must have been thinking alike my RDSS numbers were the same as yours !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree Atkinsrr.
A guy I sit close to at Del Mar came over after the race and gave me a
whack on the head. I had them all except 15
He had the 15. I was busy trying to get in the bet and post my screens
which lead to me hiding the wrong horse .

Anyway Ted says its okay to post them again.

These horse survived phase 1

Name:  Line_Entrpy.PNG
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I sent these to Entropy then I sent the best to Thoromation
The EXDC screen and Thoromation agree.

Name:  EXDC.PNG
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Name:  Thoro.PNG
Views: 342
Size:  19.8 KB

Oh Canada

Bill
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Old 07-07-2014, 04:26 PM   #12
Bill Lyster
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FYI, this race using marathon method:

14 - 136.8, off of a 112.2 pace, running 2-2-2


9 - 137.3, off of a 111.0 pace, running 2-2-2 (tandem with 4 and 15 in last)
6 - 137.8, off of a 114.2 pace, running 5-4-2
15 - 138.0, off of a 111.6 pace, running 5-5-2
4 - 138.0 off of a 111.6 pace, running 2-2-3
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Old 07-07-2014, 04:40 PM   #13
Ryan.p.coli
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Nice work on this one Ted
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Old 07-09-2014, 11:23 AM   #14
Ted Craven
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Just a follow up - Of course the 'Pentafecta' in the mutuels shown above is the generic name for the .20 Super Hi 5. Normally a single-winner-only bet - it is the same kind of bet which Andy Beyer in his recent Woodbine Seminar decried as a 'sucker bet', given that typically far less than 100% of the unclaimed pool each day is carried over.

However - for this Queen's Plate race there was a mandatory payout (which I could have learned if I had paid attention) and as we saw, the pool ended up being $614,000. The mandatory payout for the first 5 finishers was $42,706.70 for $2, or $4270.60 for .20 cents. (In the end, I played small Win and Exacta bets).

Using the 6 horses mentioned in my analysis above, here is that .20 Hi 5 wager:

10-14 // 10-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 = $19.20 If you need #6 We Miss Artie in 2nd position, add another $10.40

* * * *

Someone asked me how long my analysis took. About 10 minutes. Here are are few thoughts on that:

Below is the BL/BL line score created automatically by the default Paceline Selection Strategy (Best of Last 3 Perceptor, Comparable Dist/Surf).

Name:  WO0706-11.orig.png
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This is a bit too messy - we have to focus in a bit, cut out the noise.

2 decisions stand out immediately: investigate that 30-1 Morning Line horse on top (#13 Niigon Express), and investigate the likely pace-setter, #4 Asserting Bear (showing with that cute upcoming marker indicating a visually E or EP horse who also owns the F1 and 2nd call rankings, and preferably most of the F2; currently, just look for the double-red on the Segments screen CBL section).

#13 did not belong in the top group (84 SR was earned only in Allowance company and 11 points better than any other of its race - an 'E for Effort' but not for Win, or Place).

#4 is an EP who will Fight for the lead, has 4th Total Energy, finished very well in that last race Tandem with the #15 Ami. Leave it in the Primary Contenders. Throw out everyone else down to 5 horses in the Primary Group. I used the Primary Line Score as a guide for eliminations; I tried to retain the Top 5 CSR, and the NewPace horses. #13 sits on top of the Secondary Group with lots of colour. That results in the image I posted in my initial post above.

10 minutes (then I had to pack and go).



Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-09-2014 at 03:47 PM.
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Old 07-09-2014, 08:42 PM   #15
lone speed
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Hey Ted...

Maybe we are the ones making this game tough on ourselves...

Your readout on top may look messy, but if you focus on the key top ranked # 1 factors, you can literally key most of the exotic wagering available in this race...

In this race and in that readout.....hmmmm
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Old 07-09-2014, 08:56 PM   #16
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Ha! I LOVE that you pointed that out, and I actually had noticed it specifically like that! Which of the Top group of horses had no #1 ranks anywhere - #10 Matador, who did not perform as I thought he might.

All the horses who owned a #1 rank somewhere finished in the Top 5.

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Old 07-09-2014, 09:10 PM   #17
Hoof 11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Just a follow up - Of course the 'Pentafecta' in the mutuels shown above is the generic name for the .20 Super Hi 5. Normally a single-winner-only bet - it is the same kind of bet which Andy Beyer in his recent Woodbine Seminar decried as a 'sucker bet', given that typically far less than 100% of the unclaimed pool each day is carried over.

However - for this Queen's Plate race there was a mandatory payout (which I could have learned if I had paid attention) and as we saw, the pool ended up being $614,000. The mandatory payout for the first 5 finishers was $42,706.70 for $2, or $4270.60 for .20 cents. (In the end, I played small Win and Exacta bets).

Using the 6 horses mentioned in my analysis above, here is that .20 Hi 5 wager:

10-14 // 10-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 = $19.20 If you need #6 We Miss Artie in 2nd position, add another $10.40

Ted
Minor correction...

The entire pool is paid out only if there is 1 winner.

If there are multiple winners, than 50% of the pool is divided amongst the winners, and the remaining 50% will be added to the carryover pool.

If there are no winners, 100% of the pool is a carryover.

15% Takeout.
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Old 07-09-2014, 09:14 PM   #18
Ted Craven
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Thank you for the clarification Gil. You can't beat the 15% takeout.
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Old 07-09-2014, 09:31 PM   #19
Hoof 11
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I don’t understand why Beyer calls this a sucker bet, there aren’t many exotic pools with this kind of volume. Personally i wouldn’t touch the bet until there is at least $200K in the pool. If there is a mandatory payout like there was on Sunday, you would have to be a fool not to give it a try.

Nice cappin by the way Ted.
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Old 07-10-2014, 10:28 AM   #20
Bill V.
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Who cares

Good point Hoof ( Gil)
So what Andy. You made your money making speed figures and writing books
Race tracks need customers and handle. People laughed at the rainbow pick 6
at GP but look what it did It got people a new method to bet. Now tracks all over have these jackpot type bets. It is fun to follow along .

People love this type of bet because its a chance for the big score. I don't bet these type races but I do have one problem with them.
I think the only problem with these type bets is that they take stupid money out of the win - place pools . The guy who used to bet $50 on Junebug in the 5th because its was the name of his cat ( Let It Ride ) now may be betting that $50 in a jackpot bet


Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 07-10-2014 at 10:29 AM. Reason: only to one
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