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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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07-07-2014, 10:09 AM | #11 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Nice
Quote:
A guy I sit close to at Del Mar came over after the race and gave me a whack on the head. I had them all except 15 He had the 15. I was busy trying to get in the bet and post my screens which lead to me hiding the wrong horse . Anyway Ted says its okay to post them again. These horse survived phase 1 I sent these to Entropy then I sent the best to Thoromation The EXDC screen and Thoromation agree. Oh Canada Bill |
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07-07-2014, 04:26 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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FYI, this race using marathon method:
14 - 136.8, off of a 112.2 pace, running 2-2-2 9 - 137.3, off of a 111.0 pace, running 2-2-2 (tandem with 4 and 15 in last) 6 - 137.8, off of a 114.2 pace, running 5-4-2 15 - 138.0, off of a 111.6 pace, running 5-5-2 4 - 138.0 off of a 111.6 pace, running 2-2-3 |
07-07-2014, 04:40 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
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Nice work on this one Ted
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07-09-2014, 11:23 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Just a follow up - Of course the 'Pentafecta' in the mutuels shown above is the generic name for the .20 Super Hi 5. Normally a single-winner-only bet - it is the same kind of bet which Andy Beyer in his recent Woodbine Seminar decried as a 'sucker bet', given that typically far less than 100% of the unclaimed pool each day is carried over.
However - for this Queen's Plate race there was a mandatory payout (which I could have learned if I had paid attention) and as we saw, the pool ended up being $614,000. The mandatory payout for the first 5 finishers was $42,706.70 for $2, or $4270.60 for .20 cents. (In the end, I played small Win and Exacta bets). Using the 6 horses mentioned in my analysis above, here is that .20 Hi 5 wager: 10-14 // 10-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 // 4-6-10-13-14-15 = $19.20 If you need #6 We Miss Artie in 2nd position, add another $10.40 * * * * Someone asked me how long my analysis took. About 10 minutes. Here are are few thoughts on that: Below is the BL/BL line score created automatically by the default Paceline Selection Strategy (Best of Last 3 Perceptor, Comparable Dist/Surf). This is a bit too messy - we have to focus in a bit, cut out the noise. 2 decisions stand out immediately: investigate that 30-1 Morning Line horse on top (#13 Niigon Express), and investigate the likely pace-setter, #4 Asserting Bear (showing with that cute upcoming marker indicating a visually E or EP horse who also owns the F1 and 2nd call rankings, and preferably most of the F2; currently, just look for the double-red on the Segments screen CBL section). #13 did not belong in the top group (84 SR was earned only in Allowance company and 11 points better than any other of its race - an 'E for Effort' but not for Win, or Place). #4 is an EP who will Fight for the lead, has 4th Total Energy, finished very well in that last race Tandem with the #15 Ami. Leave it in the Primary Contenders. Throw out everyone else down to 5 horses in the Primary Group. I used the Primary Line Score as a guide for eliminations; I tried to retain the Top 5 CSR, and the NewPace horses. #13 sits on top of the Secondary Group with lots of colour. That results in the image I posted in my initial post above. 10 minutes (then I had to pack and go). Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-09-2014 at 03:47 PM. |
07-09-2014, 08:42 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Hey Ted...
Maybe we are the ones making this game tough on ourselves... Your readout on top may look messy, but if you focus on the key top ranked # 1 factors, you can literally key most of the exotic wagering available in this race... In this race and in that readout.....hmmmm |
07-09-2014, 08:56 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Ha! I LOVE that you pointed that out, and I actually had noticed it specifically like that! Which of the Top group of horses had no #1 ranks anywhere - #10 Matador, who did not perform as I thought he might.
All the horses who owned a #1 rank somewhere finished in the Top 5. Ted
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07-09-2014, 09:10 PM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
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Quote:
The entire pool is paid out only if there is 1 winner. If there are multiple winners, than 50% of the pool is divided amongst the winners, and the remaining 50% will be added to the carryover pool. If there are no winners, 100% of the pool is a carryover. 15% Takeout. |
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07-09-2014, 09:14 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Thank you for the clarification Gil. You can't beat the 15% takeout.
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07-09-2014, 09:31 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
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I don’t understand why Beyer calls this a sucker bet, there aren’t many exotic pools with this kind of volume. Personally i wouldn’t touch the bet until there is at least $200K in the pool. If there is a mandatory payout like there was on Sunday, you would have to be a fool not to give it a try.
Nice cappin by the way Ted. |
07-10-2014, 10:28 AM | #20 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Who cares
Good point Hoof ( Gil)
So what Andy. You made your money making speed figures and writing books Race tracks need customers and handle. People laughed at the rainbow pick 6 at GP but look what it did It got people a new method to bet. Now tracks all over have these jackpot type bets. It is fun to follow along . People love this type of bet because its a chance for the big score. I don't bet these type races but I do have one problem with them. I think the only problem with these type bets is that they take stupid money out of the win - place pools . The guy who used to bet $50 on Junebug in the 5th because its was the name of his cat ( Let It Ride ) now may be betting that $50 in a jackpot bet Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 07-10-2014 at 10:29 AM. Reason: only to one |
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