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Old 11-24-2016, 11:57 AM   #1
Tim Y
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Surface of a different color

Anyone who used the Sartin Methodology for any length of time realizes that it will NEVER be as effective on the grass as the main track.

The WHOLE nature of the "upside down" pace structure on the grass is part of the reason, the lack of accurate pace times another, the varying "give" of the course via weather, the differences in the "putting greens (of Del Mar) versus the deep courses like Arlington and Saratoga...... the tighter inner circumferences and narrower widths of most turf courses, the complete lack of circumference alterations at most turf after-thought courses (an after thought course is one that is rarely used and the turf horse population there is not sufficient to run on that surface, tracks like Mountaineer, Penn National, Turf Paradise, etc. that only card turf races a few times per week) on and on.

Until three years ago, I was in wonder how an alteration of LANE on the turf course was actually corrected by the track maintenance. Simple geometry says that the larger the radius of a circle (or in this case half a circle around the turn), the greater the circumference and there by the longer that lane has to be compensated by moving the gate to get the proper overall distance for the listed race.

The answer (at Woodbine and other major venues I was told by the stewards)
is in having alternate 1/8th poles that arranged at 5 different positions that exactly account for the variation of them when the lanes go from position zero (running right up against the permanent rail) to position 5 (way out in the lane). Each time the lane gets wider, the track maintenance people physically MOVE the 1/8th pole (and the timing sensor when we used Teletimer) as well as move the gate to compensate for very accurate measurements of the total distances.

The teletimer technician told me that this was worked out over a very carefully construed survey years ago that kept the overall distance of the contest the same start to finish no matter what lane they were running in. The after-thought tracks have no variations that I can see (and at the cost of this intervention would probably not want to support the price tag either) so when they move that rail to define another lane, how are we to know if the gate or any of the other timers have be altered accordingly? This allow that ONLY the "best guess" times AT THAT COURSE can be compared logically one to one.

Moving the lanes are obviously done to keep the course wear down and the total lack of that awareness in the "never ending" Gulfstream meeting should scare anyone away from that venue. As a trainer or owner, I would never let my horse run on that group of pot holes they call a turf course. Big venous like Belmont and Saratoga have the luxury of moving them around to the two turf courses. Scuttlebutt here (Woodbine) is that when the standardbreds leave permanently for Mohawk year round, that inner dirt track will become a second turf course. WHen that is exactly??
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Old 11-24-2016, 12:19 PM   #2
Tim Y
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Another factor that throws a wrench into turf contests: TRIPS

In most main track races, the pace of race spreads out the field considerably during the contest, so THE MAJORITY of time, there is enough room for the true contenders to move when they have the chance to.

On the TURF however, the pace early is usually lackadaisical so most early pacesetters do not get that far away from a field, HENCE there is a cavalry charge down many a narrow inner turf course to the wire where many WINNING MOVES are blocked in their attempted fruition. If you look at the layout for Europe's biggest turf contest (the Gran Prix de la Arc de Triomphe), the course WIDENS noticeably at the top of their stretch to give any horse making a late move the room to get up. Newmarket is the same way.

The "upside down" pace is yet another factor that requires a paradigm shift in evaluation of them. One of the classical handicapping considerations on the main track (thanks to Huey Mahl) is exertional physiology catching up with the crowd: PHYSIOLOGICALLY it costs an animal to be out front or pressing up front, so when they are called on LATE in a contest, the oxygen debt expresses itself in a myriad of predictable (based upon each horse's known energy distribution). Recall these are the same animals running upside down on the turf.

On the grass, whether it is just historical convention or actual physiology, the race winners DEPEND on having something in reserve ...HOWEVER, race to race this does not express itself consistently. How often to you see a horse that closes well, get too far back and even in spite of a clear late and exciting MOVE, there was just too much real estate to get to the wire on top?

In Micheal Pizzola's good book Handicapping Magic, he changed much of my way of looking at turfers. His contention is that turf horses have less a form cycle than their dirt cousins. Rather that view just the last several attempts, he suggested opening up a turfers ENTIRE last 10 lines listed for evaluation. I saw this happen: we had a very good turfer here (Court Vision who won the Woodbine Mile and has proven to be a good sire). In the line I evaluated for him in the Mile, his final fraction was in the range of 62 feet per second which is almost sprinters opening velocity. Over his next several he did not get to the wire as often as these numbers would suggest, HOWEVER his very good closing ability was expressed the day he defeated Goldikova (she had less than a great trip) in the Breeder's Cup Mile...That animal had shown that ability before, just not recently. Turf form cycles are NOT like the main track horses.

To use this method, just pick a horse's best two TPP rankings and then compare them to the field.

Turf evaluations have many many POT HOLES that are not readily apparent.
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Old 11-24-2016, 01:22 PM   #3
Tim Y
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should have rhymed this as COURSE of a different color
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Old 11-25-2016, 07:04 AM   #4
RichieP
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
Anyone who used the Sartin Methodology for any length of time realizes that it will NEVER be as effective on the grass as the main track.
Good morning Tim
Looking at my win betting only records (minimum 8 betting entries)for the last 365 days my highest ROI is turf routes followed by poly routes,then poly sprints and last dirt races.

Richie
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Old 11-25-2016, 09:10 AM   #5
Mitch44
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What I've found is that its true the percentage of wins do go down in turf races. However that's do to the make up of the horses within that race. In other words there are many more unknown factors in turf races in that they contain many FTS on turf and unproven to the conditions of the race.

My experience is that if they all are proven with 3 turf starts and 3 at the distance structure they are very playable races. Those that insist on playing dirt races that are MSW or young horses with fewer than 3 at the surface and distance will destroy their win percentage also by as much as 15%.

My point is that its not the surface or distance but the make up of the race and the unknown factors within that race makeup that destroys a bankroll. Like RichieP I find many turf races that are profitable.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-25-2016 at 09:13 AM.
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Old 11-25-2016, 09:33 AM   #6
Tim Y
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wagering is NOT handicapping and handicapping is not wagering. The two are mutually exclusive exercises.
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Old 11-25-2016, 10:42 AM   #7
Bill V.
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ML odds

Morning line odds of winners - Turf races Del Mar
summer 2016 and Fall Bing Crosby Meet as of 11/24


Code:
#    Sprint     8F     8.5+   Maidens
1	2	0.8	2	2.5
2	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
3	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
4	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
5	2.5	2.5	2.5	3
6	3	2.5	2.5	3
7	3	2.5	3	3
8	3	3	3	3
9	3.5	3.5	3	3
10	4	3.5	3	3
11	4	3.5	3	3.5
12	4	3.5	3	4
13	4	3.5	3	4
14	4	4	3	4
15	4	4	3.5	4
16	4.5	4	4	4
17	4.5	4.5	4	4
18	4.5	5	4	4
19	5	5	4	4
20	6	5	4	4.5
21	6	5	4	5
22	6	6	4.5	5
23	6	6	4.5	6
24	6	6	5	6
25	8	6	5	8
26	8	6	5	8
27	10	8	5	8
28	12	10	5	8
29	12	10	5	8
30	15	12	5	8
31	15	15	6	8
32	20	15	6	10
33		20	6	10
34			6	12
35			6	12
36			6	
37			6	
38			8	
39			8	
40			8	
41			10	
42			12	
43			12	
44			12	
45			12	
46			12	
47			12	
48			15	
49			15	
50
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Old 11-25-2016, 11:08 AM   #8
Bill V.
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Win Prices Morning line

Del Mar Turf races Win Price ML odds

Code:
Race	Turf Sprint/ML	Turf 8/ML      Turf 8..5 +/ML     Turf Maiden/ML
1	12.4	6	27.2	12	12.4	6	9.4	8
2	43.4	10	4.2	10	4.6	2.5	8.6	4
3	17.4	4	11	5	10	4.5	5.4	3
4	29.2	12	16.4	6	20.4	12	13.4	4
5	34.6	15	21.2	6	8.6	3	18.6	10
6	16	4	14.8	6	22.2	8	6.2	2.5
7	15.8	15	4.4	2.5	5.4	2.5	20.6	12
8	5.8	3	62.4	10	9	5	5.2	2.5
9	85.8	20	6.4	3.5	26	6	46.2	12
10	10.2	5	30.2	20	11.6	6	7	3
11	6	2.5	14.2	8	7.8	4	6.8	2.5
12	10	4.5	12.6	6	19.2	6	4.6	3
13	9	2.5	33.4	15	35.8	12	9	4
14	8.4	2	3.4	2.5	14.2	5	26.6	5
15	14	6	9	4	10.4	3	7.2	4
16	14.4	8	5	2.5	23.4	5	23.6	8
17	8.8	6	8.2	2.5	15.2	5	13.8	6
18	11.2	4	9.6	4.5	14.2	8	28.4	8
19	24.6	4	8.8	4	3.6	2.5	22.2	8
20	6.6	2.5	2.6	0.8	59.8	12	11.6	4.5
21	9.8	4.5	3.6	2.5	20.4	5	5	3
22	7	2.5	14.2	5	6	3	10.8	3
23	10.6	3	8.6	6	2.8	2.5	10.6	4
24	42	8	11.4	5	4.4	3.5	13.2	4
25	9.8	6	9.8	3.5	8.2	2.5	16.2	5
26	15.4	6	6	2.5	13	5	8.6	3.5
27	10.4	3.5	29.6	15	5.6	2	24.4	8
28	19	4.5	7	3.5	17.4	12	10.2	4
29	12	12	10.2	4	11.2	4	10.4	8
30	4.8	3	11.8	3.5	7.2	3	4.8	2.5
31	8	4	13.6	3.5	9.2	4.5	8.2	3
32	11.8	4	25.4	5	7	3	25	10
33			5.4	3	10	4	11.8	6
34					8.4	4	8.6	8
35					17.2	6		
36					6.8	3		
37					35.6	12		
38					24.4	8		
39					17.6	10		
40					25.8	6		
41					40	15		
42					10.2	4		
43					28	15		
44					8.6	3		
45					20.4	6		
46					13.2	4		
47					11.8	12		
48					12.8	5		
49					12.4	3		
50
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