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Old 10-03-2021, 02:25 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by ranchwest View Post
Are you defining running style as positional?
Yes but not entirely. I'm in agreement with Tim Y's post in # 8 of this thread.
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Old 10-03-2021, 06:22 PM   #12
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How would you evaluate the mesh of those two?
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Old 10-03-2021, 07:48 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by ranchwest View Post
How would you evaluate the mesh of those two?

I try to use lines where the runners
had their best finish results.

Generally I expect runners who are usually
in the front 1/3rd of the field +/or
within 4 lengths of the lead at the first call to keep
the pacesetters honest.

Runners who are regularly ahead of
80% of their opponents at the 1c
or within 2 lengths of the lead
should be expected to push or set the pace.

everyone else is to me “other than early “

Then I look at the POH and PORs
in RDSS to determine if any of the runners
seem to put out of their usual 1c range
compared to when they’ve ran their better races

That’s where my assessment of who in
the front-tier of the field at the 1c
is overmatched and who else is still a contender.
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Old 10-04-2021, 12:14 AM   #14
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Interesting. Seems everyone has a bit different way of selecting pace lines.
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Old 10-04-2021, 06:18 AM   #15
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I should have ended post 13 with: begins.
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Old 10-04-2021, 01:50 PM   #16
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Extreme Pace Handicapping

Mike

Thanks for your continued responses. I understand handicapping concepts and theories much better when I see them applied to an actual race. Could you provide the workup of just one race in which you incorporated whatever concepts and theories that you use from Randy Giles' "Extreme Pace Handicapping along with the Sartin Methodology and RDSS to get the winner of a race.

I am coming around to the idea that the Runninbg Style of horses is just as important as the pace numbers and factors that we use to arrive at our picks for the winner of a race. Tom Brohamer talked about this in terms of looking at and evaluating the running style of the horses in the race as the first handicapping step. Further, the Hat talked about looking at the past performances from the left side of the past performances to the right, not vice versa. It is just as important to know how a horse got to his finish of the race as the finish itself, in fact, more important.

To that end, I have an example race workup or partial workup, to use as an example. It is from For the Lead's thread "Why Not Maidens" dtd. 1/23/13, POst #46. It discusses the handicapping of a 6F dirt sprint race for 16,000 Mainden Claimers at Aqueduct on Feb 16, 2013, 10th race.

The eventual winner of the race in quesstion, Bwana Booyah, led at the break and led at the first two calls by 2 lengths at each call and finished 7th in his prior tandem race by 6.4 lengths. He was designated by Running Style as an E5. There was no other early speed in the race. The fractional calls of the race were 23.4 and 46.7 with a final time, I beliebve of 1:12.8.

The eventual 3rd place finisher in Bwana's race was King Keene who was had a running style of EP2 in the prior tandem race in which Bwana finished 7th. He was 2nd at both the 1st and the 2nd call.

The eventual 2nd place finisher of the race on Feb 16, was dropping from a 35,000MC (not the tandem race) and finished 3rd in that race. His runnning style designation was an S1 runner.

Just looking at the running styles and nothing else, it was clear what Bwana Booyah had to do in order to win the race on Feb 16. He simply had to slow down a little bit in his 1st and 2nd fractions and he would.have a lot more energy left to finish the race and win it. There is no indication of the E/L Difference Graph in the workup of this race. However, if it had been available, I'm certain that it would have shown that Bwanah had a ton of extra early energy, much more than any other horse in the race. He just had to throttle back on the first 2 calls a little bit,and he could go wire to wire, which he did. .
He paid over 21-1 to win. To me, this is an excellent example of using the E/L Difference graph and the significant extra early energy that this horse had to win the race. The fractions for the winning race on Feb 16 were 23.9. 47.8 and 1:13.4.

Does this example race that I have provided show up in any context in Randy Giles' book?.

Dave v
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Old 10-04-2021, 02:13 PM   #17
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Extreme Pace Handicapping

I apologize for not putting the workup of the Feb 16, 2013 10th race at Aqueduct in the post as an attachment. I find that it is or has much more impact than a verbal description. I just have not learned how to do that yet. If someone would help me learn to do that, I would appreciate it.

Dave
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Old 10-04-2021, 04:14 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1retired View Post
I apologize for not putting the workup of the Feb 16, 2013 10th race at Aqueduct in the post as an attachment. I find that it is or has much more impact than a verbal description. I just have not learned how to do that yet. If someone would help me learn to do that, I would appreciate it.

Dave
Let's do this first.

Some brief comments on
Chapters 1 & 5 of " Extreme Pace Handicapping" - Randy Giles
Chapter 1 - Extreme Pace Tools
The main lessons I took away from this chapter is:

1 - the much needed reminder that just like runners who can, or try to,
be pacesetters before or by the 1c ---> middle of the pack runners can often be one-dimensional.
Many others here at P&C, have spoken to this as well. I think the easiest way to identify this type
of one-dimensional presser is to see if when the pace in front of that horse gets hotter, does that
runner still produce close enough to it's usual final fraction (F3) or final 2 fractions-combined (HE)
at or near today's comparable distance and class level.
If you see a clear downturn in that runner's F3 and HE output
without any reasonable excuses, that runner just like the easier to spot need-to-lead type
is likely a one-dimensional presser. BTW, most around here use different labels for
running styles than Giles does especially for what he calls pressers.
Still it's an important lesson to hold on to.

2 - The Pace Pressure Gauge discussed on page 7 is not a bad way to estimate the shape of the race
as far as whether the front-tier or early trailers are at more of an advantage than the others.
I personally think it's more important to note the one-dimensional early types and compare them
to each other first.
Regardless of how many Quirin points get added up from the group of
5+ early speed point runners, if one of those front-runners is clearly better than the others who "look like"
they can pressure him/her, the rest of the pack may as well be chasing a Lone Early horse.


3 - The Pace Comfort Zone number (again discussed starting on page 7) is interesting.
I think it's very useful but with a BIG caveat: Be skeptical about using a PCZ number that's
well larger than what could be pulled from other paceline(s) in that horses PPs if you can see
that 2 lengths faster than that runners actual final time or speed figure is about 3 lenghts or worse
than what it should take to win today's event. Use one of the lower PCZ #s as to ensure you're not giving
that horse too much credit for being capable of allowing the pace in front of him/her to
"go on with it" without that runner getting sucked in to chasing it early.


This entire chapter is worth reading just like Chapter 5 for many handicappers.(which I'll discuss next)

Plenty of "Sartinologists" and RDSS subscribers won't need it.
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Last edited by MJS6916; 10-04-2021 at 04:17 PM. Reason: missing quotation in item 2 of Chapter 1
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Old 10-04-2021, 05:13 PM   #19
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Some brief comments on
Chapter 5 of " Extreme Pace Handicapping" - Randy Giles
Chapter 5 - Running Style Workout

Again, I'll repeat: Giles labeling of running styles differs from many around here at P&C.

I differ some from many of the RDSS users here. Whatever, works for you is whatever works for you.

If you never learned the Match-Up from Jim Bradshaw, Howard Sartin, or some other really good
teachers from around here, this chapter is a great alternative.

Giles saw to it this chapter took up more than 25% of the book and rightly so.

I haven't read more than 7 books on handicapping in my life and doubt I'll read 2 more
before I go to the "pearly gates" ( no I'm not dying ).

I can't imagine there's a much better practice session in any other handicapping book
than this one. If I wanted to point someone to the best combination of learning how to
identify "running styles", AND in the shortest amount of time ----> Chapter 5 would be it.

I, myself, break down the "labels" more so (and of course I think better), but I have to admit
Chapter 5 helped me get there.

If you need a refresher, or you're not confident in your assessments of "running style lables"
Chapter 5 is worth intense study and more than once.

Giles repeats something he said in Chapter 1: "Chasing is NOT pressing".
This is crucial to correctly distinguishing between an E or EP type. Can't be reinforced enough.

He also says he labels "running styles" by lengths not position. I disagree.
To me it takes both plus considering the POR of the lines we are inspecting.

Because of my own skepticism of the Quirin points system ( not saying they're useless ),
I didn't read the other chapters (2-4, & 6-8) after my first run through them.
There's some really good advice anyone can hang on to at the very end of the book,
and keep in mind that in Chapter 8 Giles' research only dealt with sprints.

Finally, on page 53: the horse who Giles says gets a PCZ # of just a 1/2 length (based on his 4th line back)
I say is wrong. It's 2 lengths.

I had to get that one in there.
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Old 10-04-2021, 05:17 PM   #20
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Extremem Pace Handicapping

Mike

Many thanks. You've given a lot of stuff so far. Give me some time to digest this. I'm considering buying the internet PDF version of the book which costs something like $9.50 or $10.

,
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