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Breeders' Cup 2015 Friday and Saturday Oct 30/31 - Keeneland, KY

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Old 10-30-2015, 09:56 AM   #1
RichieP
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B.C. Dirt Mile - Race 7 - Friday

I'm using #3 Liam's Map to project pace right off his last line - 47.5 - 110.9.

He has shown faster times around 2 turns with 2 back and 4 back. He also is not a pure "E" runner pressing and winning from 2nd position 4 back and 6 back.

Tandems show he has crushed the #8 Wicked Strong twice by 6 lengths plus both times. Also buried the #5 Lea by over 10 lengths when they met.

Heavy fav appears deservedly so.
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Old 10-30-2015, 10:05 AM   #2
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Here are the full pp's for each runner with my lines marked.

I started with best of last 3 line selector than made some adjustments based on projected pace. I also adjusted running styles manually to what I felt was in line with the runners when they faced today's expected pace.

Just as an FYI right out of the box with no "fiddling" the #2 and # 10 (neither have faced the "giant" #3 btw) are highly ranked with both at 10/1 on the ml.
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Old 10-30-2015, 10:09 AM   #3
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Remainder of the field:
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Old 10-30-2015, 10:20 AM   #4
RichieP
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Here are the TPR / Segments and BLBL screens:

Personally I am not looking to bet against the favorite here, I dont play exotics.


Might be better races offering value and I definitely see the Distaff carded as today's 9th as one of them! I'm looking OTE for the win off a projected pace of 47 - 111 by the #10 Yahilwa's last line here at Keeneland.
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Old 10-30-2015, 11:58 AM   #5
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Richie, great to see you posting again. Look forward to more, more, more.

Thanks,

Bill
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Old 10-30-2015, 12:26 PM   #6
Bill V.
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Richie P !

Hello Rich

Here is what I see

3 way tie on VDC
Code:
                 KEE1030 7 8.0 D G1 3+  $1,000,000 4:10PM

                         THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│   TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 1 RED V3 1│ 91│  6│167.16-2│  │  2│  3│  2│  2│ 4│ 2│ 5│  │     3│  │   5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 2 BRADE3 1│ 93│  6│167.50-1│  │  1│  4│  1│  1│ 3│ 3│ 3│  │     1│  │   2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 3 LIAM'3  │ 91│  6│167.01-3│  │  2│  3│  2│  3│ 4│ 3│ 4│  │     4│  │   4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 5 LEA  6  │ 91│  6│166.62-4│  │  3│  2│  3│  4│ 2│ 1│ 2│  │     1│  │   3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│5│ 6 STREE1  │ 91│  6│166.34-5│  │  4│  1│  2│  5│ 1│ 2│ 1│  │     1│  │   1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘  └──────┘  └────┘
Code:
                 KEE1030 7 8.0 D G1 3+  $1,000,000 4:10PM

                       INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│         1F         │         2F          │     3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  1 RED V3│          3->       │             2->     │           3->        │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  2 BRADE3│                 1->│                  1->│                   1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  3 LIAM'3│      4->           │         3->         │      4->             │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  5 LEA  6│  5->               │     4->             │                   1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  6 STREE1│              2->   │ 5->                 │                   1->│
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘
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Old 10-30-2015, 03:59 PM   #7
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O.M.G. - Hello "Bill's" - Lyster and Varone!
It's like deja vu all over again

Hope you guys are doing great!

Hey before the race runs (looks like about 15 mtp) I just want to put up the out of the box readouts using all the default settings.

Here they are
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Old 10-30-2015, 04:30 PM   #8
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Nice call on the horses ability to sit off the pace; he needed today and did it.
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Old 10-30-2015, 04:33 PM   #9
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I have the 2-3-7-10 and 15 in the pick three. I used the top two Timeform ratings for the first race in this sequence and for the 3-10 in leg three
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Old 10-31-2015, 08:43 AM   #10
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Here is the result chart for the race
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