Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You? > Matchup Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-02-2017, 09:56 AM   #1
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
"Hold or Fold?" - FL Race 8 - 10/2/17

Randomly combing through some PP's and found a strong minor sprint stake at the little track in Western NY known as "The Thumb".

Code:
FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs  TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM

              Arctic Queen S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES
              THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.  FOALED IN
              NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW
              YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY.  No nomination
              fee.  $200 to pass the entry box and to
              start.  To be divided 60% to the winner,
              20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to
              fourth  2% to fifth & 1% sixth, seventh
              and eighth. Weight: Three Year Olds 122
              lbs Older 124 lbs; Non-Winners of

     EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 8-9)
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 10:02 AM   #2
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Here are PP's. Look for Monday, October 2nd, Finger Lakes Race 8:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 10:22 AM   #3
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Analysis/ESP

Here are my lines. BLT/C with user changes made if necessary.

#1 - Line 2/Early
#2 - Line 1/EP
#3 - Line 4/EP
#4 - Line 1/Early
#5 - Line 7/Early
#6 - Line 2/Presser
#7 - Line 2/EP
#8 - Line 1/EP
#9 - Line 2/Presser
#10 - Line 4/Presser
#11 - Line 1/Presser

Code:
     FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs  TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM

                         TRACK MASTER PACELINES (VART)
NO PN NAME    1STC  2NDC  FINC    BL1    BL2    BLS    BLF  SR  TV  COND
 1  1 VICTO2  22.8  45.5 104.8  1-1.0  1-2.0  1-2.5  1-1.3  93   1   FT
 2  2 BUSTI1  22.7  45.6 110.4  3-1.1  3-1.1  3-1.6  3-4.3  96  -9   FT
 3  3 TOUGH4  22.4  46.4 106.1  1-0.5  1-1.0  1-2.0  1-4.3  80   3   FT
 4  4 RIP L1  22.7  46.4 111.9  1-1.0  1-0.5  3-3.5  4-6.8  71   2   FT
 5  5 PACHA7  22.4  45.4 111.9  2-1.0  2-1.0  4-2.6  5-7.5  68   5   FT
 6  6 BROOK2  22.7  45.6 110.4  6-4.1  6-2.7  4-2.1  2-3.5  98  -9   FT
 7  7 BEE N2  22.9  46.0 118.5  4-1.6  4-2.6  1-2.5  1-4.5  88  -2   FT
 8  8 SHE'S1  22.2  45.3 110.6  5-2.2  3-2.0  3-3.5  3-4.0 103 -10   FT
 9  9 SLAM 2  22.7  45.6 110.4  5-2.6  5-2.2  2-1.5  4-4.8  95  -9   FT
10 10 WONDE4  23.4  46.2 123.5  4-1.6  3-2.0  5-0.8  3-3.8  82  12   FT
11 11 LEMME1  22.7  45.6 110.4  1-1.0  1-1.0  1-1.5  1-3.5 105  -9   FT




                           PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED)
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  MAN RC TRKDISTSE

 1  1 VICTO2    22.0  44.8 110.1  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  85       94 SAR 5.5D
 2  2 BUSTI1    22.4  45.1 109.5  1.10  1.10  1.60  4.30  84       90 FL  6.0D
 3  3 TOUGH4    21.4  45.5 110.9  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  81       73 FL  5.5D
 4  4 RIP L1    22.2  45.6 110.6  0.00  0.00  3.50  6.80  76       84 FL  6.0D
 5  5 PACHA7    21.9  44.7 110.7  1.00  1.00  2.60  7.50  75       87 FL  6.0D
 6  6 BROOK2    22.4  45.1 109.5  4.10  2.70  2.10  3.50  85       90 FL  6.0D
 7  7 BEE N2    22.3  45.1 110.8  1.60  2.60  0.00  0.00  82       87 AQU 6.5D
 8  8 SHE'S1    21.6  44.4 109.1  2.20  2.00  3.50  4.00  86       98 PRX 6.0D
 9  9 SLAM 2    22.4  45.1 109.5  2.60  2.20  1.50  4.80  84       90 FL  6.0D
10 10 WONDE4    22.7  45.3 109.7  1.60  2.00  0.80  3.80  83       96 KEE 7.0D
11 11 LEMME1    22.4  45.1 109.5  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  88       90 FL  6.0D
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 11:03 AM   #4
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
I vote "Hold"

#11 looks the fastest visual "Early", and the other earlies will be hard pressed to catch.

Code:
     FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs  TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM
                          BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE

HIDE#  PNcNAME Ld   SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    6  11 LEMME1    88    4  23.5     EVEN   FL  6.0D  5/1   28   6   90   7

    4   8 SHE'S1    86    5  17.5      5-2   PRX 6.0D  3/1   15   4   98   0

    3   6 BROOK2    85    6  16.3      3-1   FL  6.0D 15/1   16   4   90   7

    1   1 VICTO2    85    7  13.8   *  4-1   SAR 5.5D  6/1   41   4   94   1

    2   2 BUSTI1    84    7  13.8   *  4-1   FL  6.0D  7/2   28   4   90   7

    5   9 SLAM 2    84    8  12.3      9-2   FL  6.0D 10/1   16   5   90   7

                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 VICTO2  │ 85│ 7│1│3│26│4│24│5││3│6│6││EAR│ 0.9││1│6│3│5│6│3│2│5│3│6│4│6│
│2│ 2 BUSTI1  │ 84│ 7│6│5│26│4│21│4││4│4│5││E/P│ 4.2││3│4│5│3│4│4│3│4│5│3│5│4│
│3│ 6 BROOK2  │ 85│ 6│2│4│22│3│15│3││6│3│2││PRE│ 5.8││5│2│4│1│1│5│4│3│4│2│3│3│
│4│ 8 SHE'S1  │ 86│ 5│3│2│20│2│12│2││1│2│3││E/P│    ││1│5│2│4│5│2│1│2│2│4│2│2│
│5│ 9 SLAM 2  │ 84│ 8│4│6│29│5│28│6││5│5│4││PRE│ 5.3││4│3│6│2│3│6│5│6│6│5│6│5│
│6│11 LEMME1  │ 88│ 4│5│1│11│1│ 5│1││2│1│1││PRE│ 3.0││2│1│1│3│2│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 11:06 AM   #5
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
To clarify on my ESP: those are Energy Run Styles based on the Median% of the lines that I selected. #11, who I labeled as a visual "Early" horse, has a Median% output of presser.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 11:45 AM   #6
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Fl

Interesting race. I like the 8 and 10 because they seem to like running against fast pace races. The 1 bothers me he looks like the speed of the speed. He can run quarters in 21.4 and 21.2, so he may get the jump on the rest of the speed. Breaking from the 1 hole the jock has no choice but to gun him.


Bob
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 04:12 PM   #7
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
Fl r8

Just a couple of notes: Horse #1 hasn't won beyond 5.5f in the past performances showing. #5 wins have been at routes with best finish in sprint third, but behind 7 1/2 lengths. #6's main jockey stays with the #1 horse. # 8 has a second in its only FL try. #10 hasn't won off a layoff.

I like that #11 has won from 4 1/2 lengths off at second call as there seems to be enough early speed to be that far back. #7 will get first jump vs #11 she has been back 2 1/2 lengths and won. Finally #8 has finished 1st Mth vs 21.3, 44.4 and 2nd vs 22.0 - 44.8.

My choices: 7-8-11

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 05:03 PM   #8
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
FL Result

Time of Race: 22.20 - 45.68 - 58.46 - 71.46

Winner: #10 won by a nose in a head bobbing finish.
Place: #7 coming on fast in stretch when jockey ranked on left rein (trying to get lead change?) and then missed in a close finish.
Show: #8 In a photo for 3rd with #3 and won by about 1 inch.

#11 had almost a perfect X-O (good race-bad race) pattern and was due for a bad race. He gave it and finished last. I tried to forgive the pattern even tho his last race had bounce written all over it with winning while earning her highest speed rating at the distance and on dirt. How does everyone deal with a horse like this as its last race is clearly a "+" race and no need to go back for a different race.

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2017, 07:22 PM   #9
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
Time of Race: 22.20 - 45.68 - 58.46 - 71.46

Winner: #10 won by a nose in a head bobbing finish.
Place: #7 coming on fast in stretch when jockey ranked on left rein (trying to get lead change?) and then missed in a close finish.
Show: #8 In a photo for 3rd with #3 and won by about 1 inch.

#11 had almost a perfect X-O (good race-bad race) pattern and was due for a bad race. He gave it and finished last. I tried to forgive the pattern even tho his last race had bounce written all over it with winning while earning her highest speed rating at the distance and on dirt. How does everyone deal with a horse like this as its last race is clearly a "+" race and no need to go back for a different race.

Ray
If Line 1 was where your method took you, then that's your line. It's up to the horse at that point. As you mentioned, the horse had an in and out pattern. Horses aren't machines. Just a bad day at the office for that one. Happens.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2017, 12:19 AM   #10
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
This race is just a case of one horse being EVERYTHING. It doesn't leave you much to choose from.
All my usual guidelines apply.
Attached Images
     
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Pace lines- Another Look from Omar Bill V. Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 3 04-03-2017 10:31 PM
Adjustments Question Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 3 06-29-2014 03:22 PM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Del Mar Race 9 Bill V. General Discussion 2 07-23-2012 09:40 PM
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles Ted Craven Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 03-22-2010 06:06 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:53 PM.