Projecting Pace with The Hat

[Segwin]

In The Hat's method he explains:

1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning.

I'm not understanding the statement highlighted. Obviously if you add the 1st and 2nd call it doesn't equal a final time.

Can someone explain "and speak slowly ).

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

This is how I have tried to understand it.
If you set the POR at 22.7 and 45.8 for the first two calls, as I have done with
this horse. I would then look for the final time for a horse that was on the lead or fought for the lead
(a + race ) against a 22.7 and 45.7.

A horse in the race that can run a final time that matches the early pace is the horse to use for the final time POR

[dirty moose]

I think an RDSS matchup video is in order. Any takers?

[Segwin]

Was going to post a response but got pulled away. I'll be back

[CaptDon100]

I'm glad Segwin asked this.
The 1st line is 22.7 and 45.8 with a final time of 1:10.4
The 2nd line is 22.7 and 45.5 with a final time of 1:11.4
Not sure how to find the final time that matches the 1st 2 calls?
Thanks
Don

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

A horse in the race that can run a final time that matches the early pace is the horse to use for the final time POR

I was with you up till this point. The question is "what is the final time". The final time part is ambiguous (at least to me).

The horse in your example was the pace setter for the first two calls but crumbled coming in 7th with a bl of 15. Do we look for a horse, with a + race, that can keep up with the pace at the 1st and second but better the final time of the horse in the example??

Perhaps it may not be something I wish to keep in my repertoire but it is something I hope to understand.

Thanks again.

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

Yes !! why would we make today's pace of race off the last line of horse 5
a 110.4 ? It did not have or was close to the lead at the final time

So now I need to look if there is any horse who can meet the fractions of
22.7 and 45. within 90 days - my own thing.

against today's projected F1 and SC, who ran on or near the lead at the final time.

Horse 1 Line 1 is is a tandem with horse 5 but has an excuse of the first race after a 215 layoff
Horse 2 Yes against a 22.9 and 45.5 it is up close ( a nose ) to a 110.8
Horse 3 No against a slower pace it was not up close to the a 110.9 final time
Adjusted from 5.5
Horse 4 Yes Line 2 matches the projected early pace and it was up close to a 110.8 final time
Horse 5 is up close in line 2 with a final time of 111.4
Horse 6 Line 1 is a route and against a slower pace, line 2 matches the early projected pace but is on the turf
Horse 7 Is unable to match today's early pace it ran well in line 1 but against a slower pace 23.1 46.2 111.2

So horse 2 and 4 can match the early projected pace of race so I would project the final time to be 110.8


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[viikinki]

Bill V, excellent and clear explanation, thank you very much!

[Segwin]

Thanks Bill - got it now.

Do you ever use this or stick to RDSS with BL/BL along with segments, TPR etc.

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

No not really I mostly just use the fulcrum second call
Then use Phase 1 EPR LPR and TPR

This race is part of Kahunabs teaching thread. He picked a good race to teach.

I like that he used it because right after the race where Charlie Murray won.
I had made this video as a teaching tool ,Then I sent it privately to some of the people who choose to work the races similar to how I do.

guidelines5.5.mp4

This is kind of capsulizes how I work races and use the projected pace

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Peace Love Joy

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