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Old 02-18-2017, 08:05 AM   #11
RichieP
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Hi Jeebs,
Maybe Bill V can chime in here with his thoughts on this:

Off YOUR lines shown the winning #4 in race 5 was ranked #3 Total Energy before hides.

Off YOUR lines shown the winning #4 in race 6 was ranked #2 in Total Energy before hides.

Excellent paceline work and you certainly had them as FAST HORSES .
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Old 02-18-2017, 08:29 AM   #12
Jeebs
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Poor execution on hides. Probably overemphasized the Late/Early graph and incremental match graphs. And yes Id be interested in Bill's thoughts. Thanks Richie.

Last edited by Jeebs; 02-18-2017 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 02-18-2017, 02:27 PM   #13
Bill V.
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Jeebs

I don't have the card downloaded, but just from what I see so far
In Race 5
I would not hide the 4 from the 5 screen - Incremental Match UP
I like how you checked the screen , Good work, but with Val 4 I like to have
5 horses, Tim suggest 6 which is good too I prefer 5 because I use the balance
readout so If I have a horse with a 7 or 8 or higher balance I know its not a good win bet.

I would not have bet the 4 with that pattern to win based on what I see from your readouts. It is 3rd total energy but the 3rd,4th and 5th ranked total horses are just about tied. The top 2 have a big advantage
The 4 is the #1 horse in the F1 panel and like Tim mentioned
That probably was enough to carry it home.

One thing I did notice about your comments

Both winners were from the last line and you did not have any reason to
have to look past it.
I love when I can see what pace line people have selected
Doc wrote to do this and see how most times the winner comes from line 1,2 or 3. Actually the average is 2.75
Let me see if I can download the card.
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Old 02-18-2017, 05:31 PM   #14
Bill V.
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Race 6

Jeebs I worked up race 6

I agree with your toss of the 4 in race 5 but not in race 6

For Me the 4 was tier 3 Doc wrote, do not look at cor-rallies of your top 3
just waggercap

I get the winner #4 ranked third

Another thing to consider is all my contenders are late on the early late and they show OTE energy on the energy generator, So like the 4 in race 5
the 4 here just kept going and paid $7,60

Here is my work up

OP Race 6 CL 40000 N2=L


Everybody has only 1 win


Lines

Horse 1 No Routing form Now moves up after a loss No Line

Horse 2 MC50 Maiden claimer winner Line 1 77 speed rating Pace 112.3

Horse 3 2nd Race after a long layoff, showed early speed than faded
Line 2 Contender Pace 111.8

Horse 4 Line 1 Same distance,class Plus paceline SR 77 pace 112.4

Horse 5 MC25 winner , FTL guidelines say this will probably be a 12500 claimer
Shows no ability against horses 2,3 and 4's pace ability Pace 115.2
SR in win only 70 No Line

Horse 6 Line 1 Same distance,class Plus paceline SR 75 pace 112.4
tandem with horse 4

Horse 7 Line 1 slow start against a fast pace SLY line but line 2 is 300+ days old
questions abound with this on ? SR 77 Pace 111.3

Horse 8 Not In this lifetime

Horse 9 Line 1 is it's first try at OP, Line 2 is a dud sprint, line 3 SR 77
slow pace 112.8

Code:
PaceLines


              OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+  $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM
                                 PACELINE DATA
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR     TRKDISTS

 1  2 TONBO1    47.2 112.3 144.5  1.20  1.50  0.00  0.00  77     OP  8.0D
 2  3 STREE2    48.2 111.8 143.1  0.00  0.00  0.00  3.30  80     CD  8.5D
 3  4 RANK 1 1  47.2 112.4 143.5  0.00  0.00  1.50  4.00  77     OP  8.5D
 4  6 STAND1 1  47.2 112.4 143.5 11.00  5.70  7.00  6.30  75     OP  8.5D
 5  7 JUSTI1    46.0 111.3 144.1 13.20  7.50  3.60  1.50  77     OP  8.5D
 6  9 PERFE3    48.1 112.8 144.2  0.20  1.00  1.50  2.00  76     CD  8.5D
BLBL Before Hides

The 2 , The Maiden claimer #2 shows nothing so out goes the 2/1 ML favorite

Code:
              OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+  $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM

                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)

HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    2   3 STREE2    80    7  20.3      9-5   CD  8.5D  3/1   21   4

    4   6 STAND1 1  75    7  15.5      7-2   OP  8.5D  5/1   14   4

    3   4 RANK 1 1  77    5  15.0   *  7-2   OP  8.5D  3/1   14   5

    5   7 JUSTI1    77   10  15.0   *  7-2   OP  8.5D 12/1   31   6

    6   9 PERFE3    76    5  14.5      7-2   CD  8.5D 12/1   14   4

    1   2 TONBO1    77    8  14.0      7-2   OP  8.0D  5/2   12   4



                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  +----------------++-----+          ¦    PRIM     ¦  SUPP   ¦
                  ¦ B¦L¦T¦PRIM¦SUPP¦¦FRACT¦          ¦E¦L¦C¦T¦H¦F¦F¦S¦F¦E¦T¦T¦
+-----------------¦ A¦S¦O+----+----¦+-----¦+--------+¦P¦P¦P¦T¦E¦W¦X¦P¦X¦N¦S¦P¦
¦#¦PNcNAME LdT¦ SR¦ L¦P¦T¦LS¦R¦LS¦R¦¦E¦L¦N¦¦ESP¦SCBL¦¦R¦R¦R¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦N¦ ¦T¦ ¦P¦
+-+-----------+---+--+-+-+--+-+--+-¦+-+-+-¦+---+----¦+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-¦
¦1¦ 2 TONBO1  ¦ 77¦ 8¦3¦5¦28¦5¦26¦5¦¦3¦5¦5¦¦S/P¦ 4.7¦¦3¦3¦4¦5¦5¦5¦3¦6¦3¦6¦6¦5¦
¦2¦ 3 STREE2  ¦ 80¦ 7¦4¦1¦15¦1¦ 9¦1¦¦2¦1¦1¦¦S/P¦    ¦¦1¦4¦1¦1¦2¦1¦5¦1¦5¦1¦1¦1¦
¦3¦ 4 RANK 1 1¦ 77¦ 5¦5¦2¦24¦3¦13¦2¦¦1¦2¦3¦¦SUS¦ 4.6¦¦2¦3¦2¦6¦6¦4¦1¦4¦1¦4¦2¦2¦
¦4¦ 6 STAND1 1¦ 75¦ 7¦2¦4¦22¦2¦15¦3¦¦5¦3¦2¦¦LAT¦ 6.6¦¦6¦1¦6¦2¦1¦2¦4¦3¦4¦2¦3¦3¦
¦5¦ 7 JUSTI1  ¦ 77¦10¦1¦6¦24¦3¦21¦4¦¦6¦6¦6¦¦S/P¦ 4.9¦¦4¦2¦3¦3¦3¦3¦6¦2¦6¦3¦4¦6¦
¦6¦ 9 PERFE3  ¦ 76¦ 5¦6¦3¦26¦4¦21¦4¦¦4¦4¦4¦¦SUS¦ 4.9¦¦5¦2¦5¦4¦4¦4¦2¦5¦2¦5¦5¦4¦
+----------------------------------++-+---++--------++-----------------------+

Code:
OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+  $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM

                         THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

+------------------------------+  +------------------------+  +------+  +----+
¦#¦PN NAME LdT¦SPR¦BAL¦   TOT-R¦  ¦EPR¦LPR¦CPR¦ TT¦FW¦HE¦FX¦  ¦V/DC-T¦  ¦SUPP¦
+-+-----------+---+---+--------¦  +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦  +------¦  +----¦
¦1¦ 3 STREE2  ¦ 80¦  6¦162.89-1¦  ¦  1¦  4¦  1¦  1¦ 1¦ 2¦ 4¦  ¦     1¦  ¦   1¦
+-+-----------+---+---+--------¦  +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦  +------¦  +----¦
¦2¦ 4 RANK 1 1¦ 77¦  5¦160.72-2¦  ¦  2¦  3¦  2¦  5¦ 4¦ 5¦ 1¦  ¦     3¦  ¦   2¦
+-+-----------+---+---+--------¦  +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦  +------¦  +----¦
¦3¦ 6 STAND1 1¦ 75¦  6¦160.25-4¦  ¦  5¦  1¦  5¦  2¦ 2¦ 1¦ 3¦  ¦     1¦  ¦   2¦
+-+-----------+---+---+--------¦  +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦  +------¦  +----¦
¦4¦ 7 JUSTI1  ¦ 77¦  8¦159.39-5¦  ¦  3¦  2¦  3¦  3¦ 3¦ 3¦ 5¦  ¦     3¦  ¦   3¦
+-+-----------+---+---+--------¦  +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦  +------¦  +----¦
¦5¦ 9 PERFE3  ¦ 76¦  5¦160.55-3¦  ¦  4¦  2¦  4¦  4¦ 4¦ 4¦ 2¦  ¦     4¦  ¦   4¦
+------------------------------+  +------------------------+  +------+  +----+
Code:
    OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+  $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM

                       INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)

+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
¦# PNcNAME L¦         1F         ¦         2F          ¦     3F+TOTAL PACE    ¦
+-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦
¦1  3 STREE2¦      4->           ¦                  1->¦                   1->¦
+-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦
¦2  4 RANK 1¦                 1->¦ 5->                 ¦           3->        ¦
+-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦
¦3  6 STAND1¦  5->               ¦         3->         ¦                   1->¦
+-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦
¦4  7 JUSTI1¦              2->   ¦     4->             ¦           3->        ¦
+-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦
¦5  9 PERFE3¦          3->       ¦             2->     ¦      4->             ¦
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+ $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM

Code:
 ENERGY GENERATOR (VAL4)

+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
¦#¦PNcNAME LdT¦ SR¦ Total R¦  HE R¦  Fx R¦ %Med¦E/EP R¦L/EP R¦ TPP R¦BAL¦ESP¦
+-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦
¦1¦ 3 STREE2  ¦ 80¦162.89-1¦78.0-2¦53.5-4¦ 68.0¦91.2-1¦86.2-5¦89.6-1¦  6¦S/P¦
+-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦
¦2¦ 4 RANK 1 1¦ 77¦160.72-2¦74.1-5¦54.2-1¦ 67.4¦89.7-2¦87.0-3¦89.3-2¦  5¦SUS¦
+-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦
¦3¦ 6 STAND1 1¦ 75¦160.25-4¦78.5-1¦53.5-3¦ 67.0¦89.2-5¦87.6-1¦89.3-3¦  6¦LAT¦
+-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦
¦4¦ 7 JUSTI1  ¦ 77¦159.39-5¦77.5-3¦53.2-5¦ 67.9¦89.2-4¦86.7-4¦88.9-5¦  8¦S/P¦
+-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦
¦5¦ 9 PERFE3  ¦ 76¦160.55-3¦75.7-4¦53.6-2¦ 67.4¦89.6-3¦87.1-2¦89.2-4¦  5¦SUS¦
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Code:
              OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+  $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM

                      LATE/EARLY DIFFERENCE GRAPH (VAL4)
 # PNcNAME LdT                      LATE|EARLY                          TOT-R
_______________________________________________________________________________
 1 3 STREE2      -1.2                   |                             162.9-1
                                       <|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 2 4 RANK 1 1    -4.5                   |                             160.7-2
                                    <---|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 3 6 STAND1 1   -13.6                   |                             160.3-4
                           <------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 4 7 JUSTI1      -8.0                   |                             159.4-5
                                 <-------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 5 9 PERFE3      -9.0                   |                             160.6-3
                                <--------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
                  EX-L    V-L    M-L      M-E    V-E    EX-E
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Old 02-18-2017, 07:37 PM   #15
Jeebs
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I need more practice with the corollary screens and such. Thanks you and Richie for the feedback.
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Old 02-19-2017, 11:46 PM   #16
Bill V.
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Less

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
I need more practice with the corollary screens and such. Thanks you and Richie for the feedback.
Hi Jeebs
Actually, less is better, With val4 you really should just look for corollaries support for your 4th or worse rated horses. Any horse in the top 3 vdc should be treated as equal.
The final odds ,being the tie breakers

Post more races, and I,m sure you will win
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:55 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post
I need more practice with the corollary screens and such.
It is ONLY with practice that patterns evolve that you are going to look for. Do not LIMIT yourself to a single venue or you WILL be subject rampant sample error. Once you "get it" you will laugh out loud that it did not stick long before. In the earliest programs (Phase III) it was hard to understand the limited information and as things evolved which readouts were relevant for what distances surfaces etc.

This time of year I would suggest playing a combination of these, possibly two or three at a time: inner Aqu, Laurel, GP, Oaklawn, Tampa and Anita...Choose various ones, various days and NOTE their differences, likenesses. There are some courses I would stay very clear from: Hawthorne, Fair Grounds, and MOST of the night time thoroughbred tracks (chalk mixed with very cheap animals)....

Accept for a FACT that some tracks just do not work well with any of these programs or point to such chalk that you would never support them financially. Beware fields of 6 or less and usually NOT worth the financial backing.
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Old 02-21-2017, 08:15 PM   #18
Bill V.
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I disagree

There are advantages to focusing on 1 track and advantages to multi track wagering

Don't listen to what none winners say, The programs will do excellent
If you follow directions and take your time.

If you master pace line and contender selection first and foremost,
You will win at any track and at any distance and surface

Tim G (LT1) is doing great work documenting how RX and CSR and CR+
are doing at many tracks

Bill Lyster has tons of similar data Bill"s in mostly from SA Del Mar Los AL
Gulfstean and AQU.


I lots of data from Parx, SA and Del Mar all distance all surfaces
BL/BL and VDC and the Early- Late graph is what I track along with
Trainers stuff cause I play Pick 4's and I have to play maiden , turf , marathons anything, But all my records are similar , because I pick my lines and contenders the same way.

I recently went back to Doc's recommended spreadsheet ( Follow Up 82)

I only missed 3 races (marked with a X)
Please notice the distances
The tracks were Parx OP SA AQU GP
Pretty good I would say !

RDSS and Val 4 were the programs I used

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Old 02-21-2017, 11:12 PM   #19
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Your MAJOR reason for choosing ONE track over the other is PRICE..How do you get better prices? BIGGER FIELDS and bigger handles. This is a game of GAMBLING, not handicapping, and you need to rewarded for all that hard work in situations that will aid bigger prices.

Discover, through experimentation, where the program works better than others. Check with Brisnet AT A GLANCE to see how the favorites are doing (STAY away from places like Finger Lakes were over 39-41% of favorites win). Laurel has recently been putting our numbers that suggest wagering there. Why waste money on 8/5 shots? The national average of winners is around 33-36% so unless you get at LEAST 2/1 (0.33 probability) you are losing money.

At any track, on any given day, one is lucky to find 3 to 4 betting opportunities so you must review a wide number of cards to find those. Stay away from MOST maidens with more that 3 or 4 first time starters....TOO many unknowns.

ODDS should be foremost in your mind. WAIT to see how the board is trending. IF you have the same horse as everyone else, pass the contest, there are several coming up in the following few minutes. Don't mix up morning line with post time odds as usually the shorter priced MORNING LINE will be much lower come post time.
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Last edited by Tim Y; 02-21-2017 at 11:14 PM.
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Old 02-21-2017, 11:24 PM   #20
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EVERY program from HSH, Black Magic, HTR, JCapper and a few others will usually isolate the top 5.

that is the EASY PART of the game....hundreds can do that.

Having an understanding and approach to BETTING is the lost art in this game. All the greats have said the same thing about the game: Cramer, Howard Sartin, Dave Schwartz, Dick Mitchell, Brohamer, Dr. William Quirin........If you do not look for value, in the long run you will LOSE.

West coast guru (FR) who writes the tip sheet at Hasting's (a mathematician by training) has lamented to me often; "They teach this game completely BACKWARDS, One should have a handle on probability and value LONG before they even begin to learn how to handicap them."

A much better record to discover is how much return you get on your wagered dollar
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