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Old 10-05-2018, 12:02 PM   #1
mick
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KEE Oct 5

Good morning, everybody. It's opening day of the Fall meet at Keeneland and I thought I would post my selections/comments, such as they are. I see three and possibly four races that I might bet.

R1 - Pass. It's a MSW for 2YOs with 4 FTS.

R2 - 6,3,9,7. This is a 6f dirt sprint, MC30, with 2 FTS. The favorite 6 may be vulnerable. Speed holds at KEE and there doesn't appear to be much of it. 6 looks content to lope along mid-pack. I think she's a bet-against.

R3 - 4,1,6. The favorites all look legitimate and I don't see any value.

R4 - 8,2,3,5. 8 drops in class but may try to come from too far back. Another bet-against favorite.

R5 - Pass. It's a MSW for 2YOs, on turf with 2 FTS.

R6 - 6,2,8,7,1A. 7 runs like a closer on dirt/poly, despite those pretty red pacelines on turf. Also, Leparoux isn't the best gate jockey. So we have a closer running on a track that doesn't favor closers. Another bet-against favorite.

R7 - 11,6,13,7,10,2. I know that's a lot of contenders but I'm curious about the 11 and whether he's well meant in this race. Just 33 days ago, he came within 2.3 lengths of winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, finishing 4th in a 12-horse field. Now his connections have shipped him across the country to run in an allowance race in Lexington. Seems odd to me. They card allowance races in California. What's he doing here? And in this race? Prepping for more stakes action later in the KEE meet? If we set him aside, there's some value here.

R8 - 2,1,4. Legitimate favorites and no value.

R9 - Pass. It's a Grade 1 route for 2YOs. The 3,8, and 9 are easy to pick out. Should be fun to watch.

R10 - Pass. Another MSW race for 2YOs with 5 FTS.
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:11 PM   #2
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here is my picks for today at Keeneland! Best of luck to all!

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:39 PM   #3
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Good luck guys.
Tim
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Old 10-05-2018, 01:54 PM   #4
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After the first two races, it's been all early speed. That's typical Keeneland. In the first race, #7 and #12 dueled all the way around on turf with the #7 winning by a head. (No, I didn't have him but I wish I had, at 15-1.)

In the second, as I surmised, the favorite #6 was content to run along 3-4 lengths behind front running #7 and couldn't catch her down the stretch.
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Old 10-05-2018, 05:31 PM   #5
mick
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I had some good opinions today and made a small profit but wished I could have turned them into a BIG profit.

R2 - 6,3,9,7. This is a 6f dirt sprint, MC30, with 2 FTS. The favorite 6 may be vulnerable. Speed holds at KEE and there doesn't appear to be much of it. 6 looks content to lope along mid-pack. I think she's a bet-against.

Correct about #6 who ran second to #7.

R3 - 4,1,6. The favorites all look legitimate and I don't see any value.

Correct about #4, legitimate favorite, who won at 4-5.

R4 - 8,2,3,5. 8 drops in class but may try to come from too far back. Another bet-against favorite.

Correct about #8 who ran fourth but my two horses, 3 and 5, were nipped at the wire by a 32-1 bomb.

R6 - 6,2,8,7,1A. 7 runs like a closer on dirt/poly, despite those pretty red pacelines on turf. Also, Leparoux isn't the best gate jockey. So we have a closer running on a track that doesn't favor closers. Another bet-against favorite.

Correct about #7 who ran 4th. I dutched #2 who won at 13-1.

R7 - 11,6,13,7,10,2. I know that's a lot of contenders but I'm curious about the 11 and whether he's well meant in this race. Just 33 days ago, he came within 2.3 lengths of winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, finishing 4th in a 12-horse field. Now his connections have shipped him across the country to run in an allowance race in Lexington. Seems odd to me. They card allowance races in California. What's he doing here? And in this race? Prepping for more stakes action later in the KEE meet? If we set him aside, there's some value here.

Correct about #11 who ran 3rd. Unfortunately, I didn't have the winner #1 (13-1).

R8 - 2,1,4. Legitimate favorites and no value.

Correct about #1, a legitimate favorite, who won at 3-5.

Anyway, it's always good to start the Fall meet at Keeneland with a few extra dollars in your account.
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Old 10-05-2018, 05:49 PM   #6
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Way to go Mick.
Tim
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Old 10-05-2018, 06:04 PM   #7
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Thanks, Tim. I've got some fine Kentucky bourbon in the cabinet. Maker's Mark, of course. Think I'll have a little nip. If you were here, you could join me.

Somewhere, tazzerbobo is reading this and rolling his eyes.
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Old 10-05-2018, 06:10 PM   #8
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You better save some for him.
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Old 10-05-2018, 06:10 PM   #9
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Talking Mick the Man

Well my friend after reading your picks And seeing the results I thought for sure
you had the EX and maybe the Tri as well. Congrats and enjoy your refreshment.
Darryl
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Old 10-05-2018, 06:25 PM   #10
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Thanks, Darryl. Any tracks nearby? Turf Paradise? Rillito? Yavapai Downs?
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