Friday Night Slobberknocker - EVD 3rd - 4/14/17 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 04-14-2017, 11:12 AM

This one gets the "Jim Ross Headscratcher" award for the most indecipherable race of the night. It is a 3up $7.5k maiden claiming slobberknocker for what seem to be Clydesdales (not literally) going a mile. To give you a good idea of the "quality" in this field, the horses in this race (with AE's considered) were beaten by a combined 315 lengths in their most recent race.

I won't even bother posting PP's for this race. However, if anyone is interested in giving this race a wild guess (and it would be wild), it would be interesting to see what people come up with

The expression on "Good ole J.R.'s" face says it all here:

Name: Jim-Ross-04.jpg
Views: 185
Size: 163.8 KB

Name: Jim-Ross-04.jpg
Views: 185
Size: 163.8 KB

Good luck and skill... err... nevermind... just good luck. You will need it...

Jeebs · 04-14-2017, 11:42 AM

Here are my WAG's on this barnburner:

#1 - No Line/Ugly. Two races and has not shown any inclination to pass horses.
#2 - No Line/Ugly. Ditto. Passed horses in its debut in the slop, but stays in the herd.
#3 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. Showed "ability" to pass horses in L2 and L3. I'll take the fast track L3 over the sloppy L4 runner-up line.
#4 - No Line/Trouble last. "Hesitated start" was the comment. Clue here is that this one was 5/2 last out in the debut, so it was likely well meant but things didn't go as planned. In a race like this, it might pay to throw out that last and treat as if it were a first time starter.
#5 - Line 1/Presser. Last out was a leap forward as far as going as early as it did was concerned. Shows "ability" to pass horses in L5 and L7, but that was over 2 years ago.
#6 - No Line/Ugly. Showed speed last out but rapidly decelerated while navigating two turns for the first time. I can't see this one lasting.
#7 - Line 1/Presser. All you need is the last line with this one.
#8 - Line 7/Sustained. Yes, it shows passing "ability" in several lines, but its best TE totals were achieved on sloppy/muddy tracks. Aside from one 2nd finish on a fast surface, everything else appears rather pedestrian. For better or worse, a "contender" here.
#9 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. Its best of the last 3 was last August. Using that line. Also has passing "ability".
#10 - Line 3/Early. Speed and speed in L2 and L3, trouble L1. L3 is its better performance for rating.
#11 - No Line/Ugly. Showed nada in the debut, and took no money. Hard to believe that there will be any improvement.
#12 - Line 1/Sustained Presser. No other line to consider. Has demonstrated that passing "ability" in a few lines.
#13 and #14 (AE's) - No Lines/Ugly.

In this kind of race, I don't think one can trust how the early running is going to pan out. These are the kinds that like to get in their own way.

FWIW, here is my BL/BL:

Name: slobberknocker.JPG
Views: 176
Size: 103.0 KB

Name: slobberknocker.JPG
Views: 176
Size: 103.0 KB

Barring the usual chaos, I think that the Top 3 are likely the key to whatever mint there might be in this race. I usually try and narrow down to 4 horses, and if I had done that, #9 would have been my final elimination, which means that one will probably win this race in the final yards, lol.

Mitch44 · 04-14-2017, 11:55 AM

Doing a quick match up my WAG is 7-1-9-5-4 & order.
I'll pass on betting it ,did it in about 5 Min. with no RDSS. Let it rip! That rip may be rest in peace with this bunch. ha ha ha
Mitch44

raceman5 · 04-14-2017, 12:26 PM

I will go with the Tandem Race on Feb 10.

3-10 (This is a track I would never bet)

Bob

Jeebs · 04-14-2017, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raceman5

I will go with the Tandem Race on Feb 10.

3-10 (This is a track I would never bet)

Bob

Why would you never bet EVD?

Rverge · 04-14-2017, 12:34 PM

scr 11--14 12 out

Jeebs · 04-14-2017, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rverge

scr 11--14 12 out

Thanks. Makes it easier on me now. I forgot to mention that #4 could be considered if you really wish to excuse that race.

Rverge · 04-14-2017, 12:42 PM

the 4 "Hesitated start" more like didnt leave the gate and spotted the field 4 lghs

2nd time start after what more then 30 days and shorting up MIGHT make a difference,

The Pook · 04-14-2017, 01:08 PM

With names like PEAR SHAPED MUNRO and BONECRUSHERVINCENT these guys weren't bred for the triple crown. LOL

Pook

Jeebs · 04-14-2017, 01:25 PM

Name: slobberknocker.JPG
Views: 160
Size: 116.4 KB

With the AE's scratched, things changed a bit.

Not sure if I will actually place a bet here, but I wouldn't take less than 6-1 for all the tea in China. That said, I will probably look for any of my tiers to be 6-1 or greater in the betting before considering small bets.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Remington Park -- Friday night	alydar_ David	Selections	16	10-28-2011 08:34 PM
Hollywood Park Friday night 4-22	chardale	Selections	1	04-22-2011 06:20 PM
Marathon Friday Night - The John Henry	RichieP	Matchup Discussion	5	10-31-2009 05:37 AM
Friday night distaster at Hastings	Tim Y	General Discussion	0	07-17-2009 12:51 PM
Friday night lights	shoeless	Selections	15	12-13-2008 06:25 AM

04-14-2017, 11:12 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Friday Night Slobberknocker - EVD 3rd - 4/14/17 This one gets the "Jim Ross Headscratcher" award for the most indecipherable race of the night. It is a 3up $7.5k maiden claiming slobberknocker for what seem to be Clydesdales (not literally) going a mile. To give you a good idea of the "quality" in this field, the horses in this race (with AE's considered) were beaten by a combined 315 lengths in their most recent race. I won't even bother posting PP's for this race. However, if anyone is interested in giving this race a wild guess (and it would be wild), it would be interesting to see what people come up with The expression on "Good ole J.R.'s" face says it all here: Good luck and skill... err... nevermind... just good luck. You will need it...

04-14-2017, 11:42 AM	#2
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	My attempt at pacelines Here are my WAG's on this barnburner: #1 - No Line/Ugly. Two races and has not shown any inclination to pass horses. #2 - No Line/Ugly. Ditto. Passed horses in its debut in the slop, but stays in the herd. #3 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. Showed "ability" to pass horses in L2 and L3. I'll take the fast track L3 over the sloppy L4 runner-up line. #4 - No Line/Trouble last. "Hesitated start" was the comment. Clue here is that this one was 5/2 last out in the debut, so it was likely well meant but things didn't go as planned. In a race like this, it might pay to throw out that last and treat as if it were a first time starter. #5 - Line 1/Presser. Last out was a leap forward as far as going as early as it did was concerned. Shows "ability" to pass horses in L5 and L7, but that was over 2 years ago. #6 - No Line/Ugly. Showed speed last out but rapidly decelerated while navigating two turns for the first time. I can't see this one lasting. #7 - Line 1/Presser. All you need is the last line with this one. #8 - Line 7/Sustained. Yes, it shows passing "ability" in several lines, but its best TE totals were achieved on sloppy/muddy tracks. Aside from one 2nd finish on a fast surface, everything else appears rather pedestrian. For better or worse, a "contender" here. #9 - Line 3/Sustained Presser. Its best of the last 3 was last August. Using that line. Also has passing "ability". #10 - Line 3/Early. Speed and speed in L2 and L3, trouble L1. L3 is its better performance for rating. #11 - No Line/Ugly. Showed nada in the debut, and took no money. Hard to believe that there will be any improvement. #12 - Line 1/Sustained Presser. No other line to consider. Has demonstrated that passing "ability" in a few lines. #13 and #14 (AE's) - No Lines/Ugly. In this kind of race, I don't think one can trust how the early running is going to pan out. These are the kinds that like to get in their own way. FWIW, here is my BL/BL: Barring the usual chaos, I think that the Top 3 are likely the key to whatever mint there might be in this race. I usually try and narrow down to 4 horses, and if I had done that, #9 would have been my final elimination, which means that one will probably win this race in the final yards, lol.

04-14-2017, 11:55 AM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Doing a quick match up my WAG is 7-1-9-5-4 & order. I'll pass on betting it ,did it in about 5 Min. with no RDSS. Let it rip! That rip may be rest in peace with this bunch. ha ha ha Mitch44

04-14-2017, 12:26 PM	#4
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Yikes!!!!!! I will go with the Tandem Race on Feb 10. 3-10 (This is a track I would never bet) Bob

04-14-2017, 12:34 PM	#6
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	scr 11--14 12 out __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

04-14-2017, 12:42 PM	#8
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	the 4 "Hesitated start" more like didnt leave the gate and spotted the field 4 lghs 2nd time start after what more then 30 days and shorting up MIGHT make a difference, __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

04-14-2017, 01:08 PM	#9
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,535	With names like PEAR SHAPED MUNRO and BONECRUSHERVINCENT these guys weren't bred for the triple crown. LOL Pook

04-14-2017, 01:25 PM	#10
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Amended BL/BL With the AE's scratched, things changed a bit. Not sure if I will actually place a bet here, but I wouldn't take less than 6-1 for all the tea in China. That said, I will probably look for any of my tiers to be 6-1 or greater in the betting before considering small bets.