THE HAT'S intuition, his voodoo & mathematics

[VoodooFan]

I was not going to write this, but since this is only my opinion and perception so far, what the hell.

True HAT fans and MatchUp students and researchers are appreciative of any scrap of handle we can get on getting as close to humanly and mortally possible to "Bradshaw" like results, if ever.

Because a perspective may give an idea, direction or vision into the same area of study with new direction the article does not touch or considers.

To the TRUE and handful of Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw MatchUp conneseurs, this is for your edification and interest.

To others who simply conclude with "plausible deniability" that THE HAT used unduplicatable non-linear logic, sixth sense voodoo, intangible native american mind vision, extra sensory mental dowsing techniques, cowboy country blackmagic, etc.,this will simply be an anecedote of handicapping tales and an exercise in academic entertainment.


Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw's MatchUp and Voodoo....HOW a horse expends his energy in the face of other types of horses, fractions and matchups.

"HOW does he like to run, how does he like to win?"

"WHAT does he do his BEST in?"

Let's start with a nice quote from RichieP:

Originally Posted by RichieP

THAT is how it supposed to be when one starts relying NOT on numbers, rules etc but instead FOCUSES on Intuition, pattern recognition and the "Mind's Eye".

Intuition, especially "Bradshaw" type intuition in relation to the MatchUp is a long way, if ever, for most of us.

To me, intuition is a way or points to the likely answer in a non-linear way, a way that cannot be explained in total and detail..., YET..., with current science and mathematical methods in a predictable, automated , everyday fashion.

Intuition gets to a result or direction thats AHEAD of a science or math factors and formulas that have yet to be invented to explain a phenomena.

Intuition and the MatchUp, addressing the "plausible deniers" who deem it as a fluke method, is not pseudo-science magic, coincidence or inexplicable academic luck or happenstance formuli.

MATH is real, and if something is real and exist in the natural universe, there is a math to explain some plane of its construction in the known universe, whether that math has been invented or can be invented or percieved is another thing.

The only reason something can mathematically work on paper and not in the "real" world is because of unanticipated and unconsidered factors and their various, linear and non-linear effects and uncalculated outcome.

The MatchUp bridges this gap, thanks to THE HAT.

There is math in the MatchUp and Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw's voodoo, what do you think Dr. Howard G. Sartin was putting in those programs that everyone other than Sartin Methodologist duplicates or borrows from to some extent, but does not give him any mention or credit for???

Bravo to Bill for this site, if it were not here, the "others" would barely mention him and most will say ," Doctor Who?" Thats like saying, "who is Tesla, again?"

Doc was never in their(mainstreams) inner circle, anyways, despite his advancements.

That's for another discussion.

First read this thread thru and thru:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3976

This thread goes beyond "Fastest Pace Last Race" type of "voodoo".

This voodoo uses "position" and what type of horse this race sets up for, because if a race sets up "Other-Than-Early", Early contenders cannot be considered at all.

So, with that in mind and reading that thread......,

The Early horses project, as the thread said, in about a 22, but in looking at the race, my Minds Eye would project it at a 21.4 because the #2 can lay 2nd by 1 length behing a 21.4 and can fight in the lead at a 22, so the #4 , twice, can run 21.4's and will have to do so to stay ahead of the #2.

With that in mind, we will go linear math to set up the projection and explanation of "voodoo", but let's establish something before going forward...

1) We have , at least 4 Earlies, the #4 and #2 fighting for the lead, the #2 runs 2nd at BETTER lengths at the same fraction than #7 , so #7 will be 3rd, and the #5 can only get 2nd at a 22.1.

2) So with #4 fighting in the lead at a 21.4 or 22, what does his 2nd call project to when he fights, according to his past performance, and what does his "position" at the 2nd call when he fights at the 1st call?

Look at all 3 of his lines where he fought at the 1st call.

2hd at 47.4, 3nk at 47.1 and in the lead at a 47.1 all at the 2nd call.

3) So we KNOW, by his performance, that he will have the 1st call and 2nd call, at 21.4-22 & 47.1-47.3, ball park, you know, varients , muddy, etc. we know the race is going to slow with the fighting because thats what he did 3 times in his past performance while fighting for the lead.

4) So what does the #2 do when he is pressing, what does he project to the 2nd call when he is 2nd.......NOTHING, when he is NOT 1ST, he is not a factor after the 1st call, he is not a factor at the 2nd call when pressing.

5) the #7, in 5 races , when he DOES NOT get the lead, he is a non-factor as an "Other-Than-Early" horse.....his third race back was when he was 2nd at the 2nd call..., he will be 3rd today and there is NO OTHER race that is "Other-Than-Early" that is even close to reasonably expect him to even be near that performance today, just look at the positions and fractions of ALL his "other-than-on-the-lead" races, together, and you can see that performance will not be duplicated, at least, in TODAYS matchup.

He is an Early horse who must go wire to wire and will try for the lead, he has NO Other-Than-Early ability, except running 2nd and he will NOT be 2nd today.

6) The #1 and the #6 are the true OTHER-THAN-EARLY'S in this race.

7) The #2 needs to lead by 1 length at the 1st call & a easy trip will not get it , the #4 needs at least a 4 length lead with a non-challegened , easy trip, will not get it because of the #2, did not win with a 2,3, or 7 length lead, again, will not get comfortable because of the #2, the #5 barely won in the lead with a 2 length cushion at the 1st call at a 23, and could not win being pressed and a comfort 2nd call lengths of 2.5 at a 22.4-47, TODAY, he will be 3rd....So no Early horse is going to win AND they cannot run Other-Than-Early.

8) The BEST that the #1 has run is at 24's , 48's and 49.4's....

So using linear math and a projection of 21.4-22, we are stuck with the 4th line back on #6.....if this race was not there, we would probably have to pass the race using math.....

At a 21.4-22, the #6's projected position is 4th or 5th, 3.5 to 4.5 lengths back at the 1st call.....

...which would make his 2nd call project 4th or 5th, 6.5 lengths back at a 46.3...,the #1 is not even there, and the #2 fades badly at the 2nd call on last race and 3rd back, so the #6 only has 3 horses in front of him.....

So with the 2nd call being run by the #4 at 47.1 when fighting in the lead, that makes #6 about 3.5-2.5 lengths back at the 2nd call.

Remember, the #4 has RUN but NEVER fought at a 21.4 in the lead, so even if he runs and fights at the 2nd call at a 47.1, its going to be MORE than 2 fifths of a second added to his final time.....his final when fighting is 3rd 1 3/4 at 54.4, 4th 4.5 at 54, 2nd or 3rd by 1 length at a 53.3 but fighting at a slow 22.4.

For the #7, when he is 3rd or worse, his best is a 54, 3.25 lengths back. But even if you use his best race/fluke, he has to PASS 2 horses to duplicate that race, which is going to cost his 1 fifth second of energy in the 1st call, which turns into 2 fifths added to his final time, which would make his 53.4 a 54.1, maybe worse because he will not be able to pass the #4 at the 2nd call, and will be running faster to try to pass him.

So, if #6 is now 2.5 to 3.5 at the 2nd call, he is NOT 5.5 at the final, he is about 2.5 to 3.5 behind a 53.2....add those lengths to his final time , and the ONLY Other-Than-Early horse has a shot to win the race.

In THIS race, the #6 has a logical, legitamite shot to win the race.... in another race and another matchup, he would just be an "ugly"horse.

THE HAT could do all this at a glance, and remember, he said he done so many thousands of races, the intuition at his level would get him to the same or better place than actual planned out mathematics to arrive at a conclusion.

Intuition may also be the level above mechanical mathematics, a short-cut, because you "see" the familiar pattern, minimum mental verbal process and mechanically proofing mathematics is an unnecessary step, you simply "do" it and its done because it happened before.

This is somewhat consistant to the new MatchUp 2 book on page.124 and the original "Red" MatchUp manual method on pages 76-80.

This is how I believed Mr. Bradshaw when he says he rarely adjust, because he looks at how the horse "actually" reacts in a given matchup based on his past performance that will be similar to what he is facing today which is why he would rather "steal" calls and positions from the horses own past performance rather than make a linear, artificial , mathematical adjustment.

Another race would require a MatchUp setup based on what the horses actually have done and are more likely to do based on the competitors today.

I think this gives more science and math to THE HATS "voodoo".

To get to THE HATS level, where he just opens the form , looks for 5-10 seconds and say he's got the horse,it may take a mental dowsing techique or 22nd Century un-explored brain lobe exploration and mining technology.

THE HAT left us with End-less tools and possibilities, a potent arsenal of weapons, limit-less MatchUp laboratory and research material.

Keep studying true believers, this is my perception , so far, for that thread.

VoodooFan