2023 Kentucky Derby - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 05-05-2023, 10:34 PM

Can only get down it to 6: Verifying, Tapit Thrice, Forte,Two Phils, Mandarin (22 post) and 14 Angel of Empire. Two Phils and Verify have good shots to get position early and Kingsbarns may be close but should fade. Sustained: Mandarin, Two Phils, Verify, Tapit, Forte, Angel of Empire. Oddly enough, Forte does NOT have a lock on this one in spite of being visibly impressive.

Tim Y · 05-05-2023, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanBoals

I agree, this is going to be an exciting race to watch, but I think I will pass on the betting as well.

With Practical Move out, I have to admit, I really like the japanese horse, #17 Derma Sotogake, based on the TM SRs. If you think trackmaster has any skill at all, Derma S. ran the top speed figure in the highest class race of all the runners. Without a north american race to get pace data off, I really do not feel comfortable betting him, but if ever a japanese horse were to win, he looks like the one.

ONLY a single colt foreign trained EVER even hit the board...I am also concerned that mandarin may be a One Race Wonder.

Bill Lyster · 05-06-2023, 11:14 AM

Anyone else notice that #4 Confidence Game is the only horse with an 8 furlong workout since winning its last race the G2 Rebel. In fact the only horse with more than a 6f work that I could find. The time was 138 and change and race miles at CD have been run in the mid 136's so this was an extended work at a pretty nice pace. It was the only work at 8f that day.

Worth considering IMHO.

Good luck one and all.

Ted Craven · 05-06-2023, 11:41 AM

#15 Forte scratched. Bruised hoof.

18 runners now.

Ted

Tim Y · 05-06-2023, 12:21 PM

2 5 14 3 22...HURRY UP or the field might be yet SMALLER!!

Tim Y · 05-06-2023, 05:21 PM

Everyone should be aware that your HOST, and RDSS creator, chose GIACOMO as his top Derby choice..BIG PRICE

05-05-2023, 10:34 PM	#21
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Can only get down it to 6: Verifying, Tapit Thrice, Forte,Two Phils, Mandarin (22 post) and 14 Angel of Empire. Two Phils and Verify have good shots to get position early and Kingsbarns may be close but should fade. Sustained: Mandarin, Two Phils, Verify, Tapit, Forte, Angel of Empire. Oddly enough, Forte does NOT have a lock on this one in spite of being visibly impressive. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

05-06-2023, 11:41 AM	#24
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	#15 Forte scratched. Bruised hoof. 18 runners now. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

05-06-2023, 12:21 PM	#25
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	2 5 14 3 22...HURRY UP or the field might be yet SMALLER!! __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

05-06-2023, 05:21 PM	#26
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Everyone should be aware that your HOST, and RDSS creator, chose GIACOMO as his top Derby choice..BIG PRICE __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
10 tips for betting the Kentucky Derby	ScottB	General Discussion	9	05-06-2022 10:32 PM
Omar's 2017 Kentucky Derby Analysis	omar	General Discussion	2	05-06-2017 09:31 AM
Dissecting the Kentucky Derby paceline	lone speed	Matchup Discussion	6	07-31-2013 02:17 PM
RDSS1 and the Kentucky Derby	Ted Craven	RDSS	11	05-04-2012 07:32 PM
RDSS & Kentucky Derby	Ted Craven	RDSS	0	04-29-2010 07:22 AM

05-06-2023, 11:14 AM	#23
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Anyone else notice that #4 Confidence Game is the only horse with an 8 furlong workout since winning its last race the G2 Rebel. In fact the only horse with more than a 6f work that I could find. The time was 138 and change and race miles at CD have been run in the mid 136's so this was an extended work at a pretty nice pace. It was the only work at 8f that day. Worth considering IMHO. Good luck one and all.