Cought this nice win & ex. today

[Mitch44]

COMPLETED: 3a86a-df0be
TUP

#8
$1 Exacta 1, 10, WT, 2 none $2.00
$328.00

+ $326.00


COMPLETED: 3713c-877d8
TUP

#8
$2 Win 1 none $2.00
$12.20

+ $10.20


#

Win
Place
Show
1 $12.20 $6.00 $3.60
2 . $50.80 $20.20
6 . . $3.40
Paid
$1.00 Exacta 1/2 $328.00
$1.00 Quinella 1/2 $198.90
$0.50 Trifecta 1/2/6 $880.85
$0.10 Superfecta 1/2/6/3 $1629.52

I actually did this race using the match-up on the TV screen of Twinspires, there you'll find a stats screen where you can sort by 1st Fr ,SC and 3rd Fr. Their figures use the best two of last 3 at the distance for their numbers I.e. Now no way is this as good as using a horses whole chart to do the match-up. Its just a quick down & dirty spot plays I use when playing and I haven't had time to Hcp. Note: I'm not recommending this!! I've had good days using this like today where I was looking for longshots and days where it just doesn't work. As you can see a very nice profit. This also takes time to learn and fails also for many reasons.

E match up on stats screen. Late Note: 2,5,10 are tied
1 5
10 2
2 10
5 1
After race I downloaded RDSS & used the following lines:
# line
1 1
2 1
3 4
4 10
5 3
6 2
7 8
8 3
9 1
10 2
note: I used the best of the last 3 at a similar dis. & surface, best Perceptor or total energy.
The winner(1) was number three on BL/Bl before eliminations and the place horse(2) was number two on the late sticks or counter energy.

I don't know how to captured these screens to post here. Will have to learn that. However the Velocity-POH screen gives some valuable lessons on % MED.
Total Energy, one run horses etc. If someone can post it I'll go over it.
Mitch44

[mowens33]

Mitch, nice job! I will take that ticket any day of the week!!

Mike

[Mitch44]

Thanks Mike. I should have loaded up on it but did the race in about 2 or 3 minutes. Saw the nice odds on the #1 and then looked for a closer. Just got it in.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

The numbers as seen on the TV screen and also in the summary of all Bris PP's.


# Horse Name E1 E2/Late & Speed Rating

2 Another Bumper 91 90/ 82 * 79*
5 Cowboy Academy 93 88/ 84 * 79*
10 Truco Latino 90/ 81 * 79*
1 Cozy Bar 94 94/ 76 * 78*
6 Zoe's Cajun 87 82/ 86 * 74*
8 I'm Popeye 83 89/ 76 73
9 Mr. Obeso 93 92/ 71 * 73*
3 Hail Storm 91/ 64 * 65*
7 Sweet City Song 87 88/ 68 (64)
4 Brite Ruler 85/ 70 * 62*

This is what I use for the match-up when time is limited or playing multiple tracks. Same principle as using RDSS or any PP's. You'll note this was a 4.5F race but the principle is the same regardless of the distance.

This race figured to be 89% over at the 4 F mark or a normal second call so I drilled down on that and other Sartin knowledge such as counter energy etc.
Mitch44

[The Pook]

Nice one Mitch! I love Turf Paradise. I put together that screen for you using your suggested pace lines.

Pook

[Mitch44]

Thanks Pook very much.

Now the first thing that jumps off the page on this screen is the % Med numbers. Very few horses can win with such high numbers because they decelerate so much. You could throw out every horse in this race wit a high % Med and have the true contenders. NOT RECOMMENDED!!!
Plus this is a very fast track due to very little rain.

Now if you look at the total energy it confirms the throw outs of the high % Med. Also Tot.Energy is the "Doc's" class of the race and is an excellent tool to get any race down to 5 which is his guidelines. With that your 5 contenders are 5,10,6,1.& 2 I recommend this over TPR because it considers the 1st FR. Many horses that break bad or get into trouble can transfer the energy from that to later in a race and get up while actually changing their running style. Occurs enough that you better consider the 1st FR and also that's where the race starts as "The Hat" states.

Next let's look at the velocity part of this screen. For a horse to be early it has to carry his speed into the next fraction. Burn that one into your brain. Notice the 9,7,& 3 fail to due this as E horses and confirms their eliminations along with total energy.

Another big eliminator is F3 or 3rd FR if you look at the 9,4,7,8,3,these horses stop on a dime which is confirmed by the DCL number, another reason to eliminate.

Now the Doc and The Hat said we are always going to have a bad horse in our mix. And in this race its the # 5. Yep the horse with the highest Tot. Energy. Notice his 2nd FR or Turn Time, in this short of a race he can't afford to drop back and get up. He'll also be forced to run the 1st FR faster in this match-up which will lessen the impact of his 3rd FR. and the distance of the race will lessen the impact of his 3rd FR. Horses that drop back during a race are at a disadvantage. Many times they get in the money but fail to get up. The longer the race the better their chances I.e. 9F where the 3rd Fr is 3F. Even routers fail to get up percentage wise and finish in the money but fail to win. They really need a specific match up to win. This #5 is going from 5.5F to 4.5 ,a real disadvantage. I tossed the # 5 for these reasons. This horse is a classic ex. of what the "Doc" says when he said; "It's not how fast a horse runs but how the horse runs fast." The highest total energy here and he gets beat.

The #2 horse with less Tot. En. of the other four but runs more efficiently to get up for place at 77 to 1 odds. He also is the counter energy horse , #1 counter after scratches.

Lastly I learned through the teaching of Tom Brohammer that good horses or the best can run two good fractions together. Now look at that screen and the color codes and ask who can do that. Well only the 1 & the 10, they will force the others into submission.

Note the TRi payoff I missed, well next time.
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Nice job Mitch.
TIM G

[Rverge]

nice!

[Bill V.]

Fantastic hit Mitch

So good for you, $$$


Bill