Vector Graphs

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hi Dan. I appreciate the amount of work you are doing on this but my question is do not the segment and POH screens contain the same info. You can sort the POH screen by fraction and the Segment screen gives you both numerical and visual pictures of the matchup. How exactly would the vector graphs improve upon them?. Wishing you success with your project.
Tim

Hi Tim,

Everyone's records show them different things, so I do not know if what I see in my records is true of what other people see in their own records. Having said that, these vector records are showing me patterns that are helping me to get horses that I have never gotten before.

It is not the vector graph itself that is important to me, but the relationship between the fraction from the PoH divided by the fraction from the PoR. This gives three numbers that show how that horse, in its paceline, fared against the pace of the race from that paceline. For me, this seems to be an even stronger description of energy distribution than the %med.

The PoH is simply the velocity the horse ran, with no relation to anything else. The Segment page is Howard's dream race concept laid out on the screen. Neither is the same as the vectors.

If I am doing a poor job describing Howard's work, I apologize, I have been reading the follow ups and it made sense to me. Probably because Howard did a better job describing it in the follow ups than I am doing trying to describe it to you.

[DanBoals]

This is something I just came across in issue 69, where Mel Schrawder talks about how he used the vectors to confirm whether a #1 BL/BL horse that was going off as an underlay was a profitable bet. He references Howard's vector patterns from follow up 57.

[Mitch44]

The direction for improvement is forward thinking not looking to the rear. This stuff was deleted because better things came along, and it just didn't measure up.

This was in the Match Up Manuel published approx. 1987 with a red cover. It does not hold a candle to later developments such as BLBL, V/DC etc. There is always improvement for the better with forward thinking. This Vector Graph only considers the horses's line and not the all-important Match UP of all the contenders. Today's Match Up will be different. Additionally, a horse changes its matter of running based on the Match Up. I.e, an EP may run E, EP or P depending on what it must do to win in today's Match Up. It's still an E type horse. Note: not all can do this, but many can.

There is much danger and frustration in reading Follow Ups material that has been superseded with more proficient later developments. One can see the same stuff with proper interpretation of the Velocity POH screen. The Dream Race has far surpassed all these earlier endeavors into Pace. and achieved greater success.

Onward,

Mitch44

[shoeless]

Ted

That really looks good. Would looking at the incremental graph be the same
as that in seeing how they match up in the race, I do like the numbers though.

Jeff

[Mr.Pagine]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Dan, something like this? It took me about 5 minutes, as you said (so I feel like I didn't waste much time away from other stuff to try this ). Line graphing the info would take longer.

In just this example, not sure what use to make of these figs ... I will leave them in for the next round of RDSS Update testing, though not guaranteeing they will make a final/public cut.

I do recall something similar in maybe PaceLauncher, or Quad-Rater, maybe Synthesis as you suggest. Anyway, a differential between PoR and PoH velocities to see how a horse is setting or overcoming (or not) the pace of its race.

I have been guided by Doc - in person early on with RDSS - and then in 'spirit' by asking the question: why is such and such a readout (from earlier software) NOT included in Validator (the reference point for RDSS along with Speculator, since I had the source code). I have to believe, in a larger context, that Doc only removed things, compared to earlier software, because he believed it was more noise than signal - more confusion than clarity - too much detail. I don't know if this Pace Vector idea qualifies as too much, or redundant. I am open to being persuaded otherwise, but there would have to be multiple scenarios where this info provides BETTER info than what is existing.

In other words - every new readout has to earn its keep. Already, people try RDSS and are overwhelmed. I don't want to disservice future users by adding more. But - if it can be turned into some kind of (even situational) secret sauce, then lets keep on researching.

Ted

Attachment 50553

Attachment 50552

Ted,

How dis you get those + signs in the PP's for Jemography?

Jon

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Mr.Pagine

Ted,

How dis you get those + signs in the PP's for Jemography?

Jon

It's an experiment in an upcoming version, indicating 'good' effort.

Ted

[Mitch44]

One of the problems with this is that any horses that goes wire to wire will always get the best rating, be it 100 for each Fraction or zero deviation from best and all zeros. Wire to wire horses can have very poor 3rd FR's. or they can have low Total Energy. In this particular case its # 2 on Tot. Energy, but that gets lost when looking at all those zeros.
Now how many would have looked at Tot. Energy. In all honesty I doubt few if any, most and if included will get fixated on zeros being best. It has a tendency to mislead, not a good situation.

2. As I said this is from a previous Match Up and not reflected of the Match Up today.

3. As far as which line is a plus or better, the + is redundant because one can get the same line using the best Preceptor in conjunction with distance and surface.

4. One of the problems with RDSS and all previous Sarti Programs is an overload of data which leads to confusion or paralysis of analysis. I'm really for eliminating stuff that really serves no purpose within the program to lead one more quickly towards success and the right areas of concentration. I'm sure Sartin if alive would get rid of much of this noise and minutia. These detours or roadblocks prevent many from ever completing a successful journey.

My solution is to work around all this noise and keying in on data of value. I mine for nuggets not flakes of gold.

Mitch44

[shoeless]

Good points Mitch, hope your doing well

Jeff

[Mitch44]

I am Shoe and thanks. Best of health and wealth to you Jeff.

Mitch44

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

One of the problems with this is that any horses that goes wire to wire will always get the best rating, be it 100 for each Fraction or zero deviation from best and all zeros. Wire to wire horses can have very poor 3rd FR's. or they can have low Total Energy. In this particular case its # 2 on Tot. Energy, but that gets lost when looking at all those zeros.

Hi Mitch,

Would you throw out %med for being a relic and not having any relation to total energy or final time or whatever?

Like %med, these numbers show HOW the horse ran against its paceline. With 3 numbers (one for each fraction) they are just slightly more descriptive than the one number in %med.

When Howard created BL/BL he chastised people again and again for not understanding that they were not linear. Not everyone understands every corollary or piece of information and that is fine.

What I love most about RDSS is that Ted is giving ALL of us the information that allows us to win. I personally do not use the RX ratings or the Perceptor stuff. In my handicapping they do not show a profit and I do not understand how they are generated or what they are good for. But just because I do not use them or I do not show a profit with them, does not mean I have a right to demand Ted leave them out. That would be pretty egotistical. What about the people that do like them and do use them?

%Early goes back to 1981 in the methodology. %med replaced %Early at the end of the 80's. These vector numbers came about when Howard wanted to do fractals and chaos math, and like %med being a better replacement than the old %early, these were a better replacement for %med.

%med helped me eliminate some horses and elevate others, these are doing that even better. If you do not understand these numbers or want to use them, no one is holding a gun to your head and trying to make you wealthier, just do not use them.

Dan