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Old 10-14-2013, 01:15 PM   #1
Giahorse
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Configure options?

In the config options there is default and val4 emulation, what program is the default using and if you pick val4 what changes happen?

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Old 10-15-2013, 11:17 AM   #2
Ted Craven
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Gia,

The difference between Default mode and Val4 emulation mode is the way beaten lengths are treated.

In Default mode, RDSS applies a beaten length value of 8.333 feet per beaten length - universally, regardless of today's distance, regardless of anything. This feet per length is used to calculate the velocity of the horse at the different segments.

In Val4 mode, different feet per beaten length values are used for the different race segments according to today's race distance. This is the setting per all Validator programs - the one Doc Sartin released.

(The only difference between Val4 - the version I updated in 2006 under Doc's supervision - and previous Validator versions discussed in the Follow Ups, is a change to how the ITV and DTV values were extracted from the data communicated by Trackmaster due to a general change made by them in 2006 on how Speed Ratings, ITV and DTV were represented internally. Without the programming change, DTV and ITV's were being misapplied, and are still misapplied when using earlier versions of Validator.)

The fixed beaten length value of 8.333 was a feature of Speculator software, released after Doc Sartin's 'retirement' in 2001 due to ill health, by his programmer Guy Wadsworth (and at the time of RDSS' initial release, used by a fair number of people). To accommodate the 2 different 'flavours' of Doc's last program, I made 2 different 'modes' in RDSS.

In Val4 mode, at all distances, the feet per beaten length value in the 3rd Fraction is significantly less than the 8.333 feet of Default mode (aka Speculator mode). For this reason, Doc Sartin always warned people NOT to use any line where the horse was beaten by more than 7.75 lengths, because its 3rd Fraction velocity (and all the compound factors which include F3) would be over-valued (under-valuing of F3 beaten lengths feet = greater F3 velocity than otherwise, despite a poor finish). Sartin sought to elevate the rankings of bona fide contenders who none-the-less finished beaten some significant lengths, as their finish against a faster Pace of Pace would often make them contenders today - while looking bad to the general public. Hence the reduction in F3 beaten length values - along with the warning to cut it off after a certain unreasonable value (he chose 7.75 lengths).

In Default mode - we don't have to worry about this: all fractions are calculated with equal beaten length values. A horse beaten 10 lengths will get the full penalty - use that line if it fits your Paceline Selection Strategy (recency, good finish or good effort in early segments, distance, surface, race conditions, etc). All other horses' velocity numbers are treated the same way, so you're comparing 'apples to apples'.

Which mode to use? Well, since one is called Default, I recommend that one. However, some folks have had good success over the years and are just comfortable using Validator (in Val4 mode, RDSS is Validator, Val4) and so don't want to mess with success. We did a study early in 2007 comparing the 2 modes and, while there were race to race differences, over a number of races - 200? - there were not significant differences in hit rate or ROI%. Does anyone remember where this study is?)

You will get some different rankings using Val4 mode versus Default, but you will also notice, in general, that the differences are due to (among other segmental beaten length values) F3 looking better for horses who finished some lengths behind.

I should also note that in RDSS you can 'tinker' with how DTV and ITV adjustments are applied (the Configure screen), where in Validator you could not. You can use 100%, 50% (the default) or 0% of the Daily Track Variant number when adjusting the equalized times of pacelines to today's distance. You can also use either ALL (100%) or NONE (0%) of the TrackMaster Inter Track variant. Further, you can specify the limit range of DTV values to use in adjustments (the DTV range sliders). The default value are -50 (fast) to +50 (slow) which really means = take ALL of the DTV number, then use the percentage you specify (100%, 50%, 0%). If you are testing the readout comparison of RDSS Val4 mode to the older Val4 DOS software, set the DTV range to full -50 ... +50 (i.e. everything) and choose 50% DTV and 100% ITV.

I prefer to limit the range of DTV used to -15 and +15, thus limiting the swings in my adjusted running times caused by days where either weather of the calibre of races or pace effects caused extremely fast or extremely slow DTVs.

So - RDSS in Val4 mode will thus differ from Val4 readouts (the old DOS Val4 program with a blue screen, sometimes used by Bill V and others) depending on your RDSS Config settings, and also by small differences in rounding of 100th seconds down/up to tenth seconds, which can result in a rank difference in a factor of 1 (or tied). On the BL/BL screen, which sums Primary Factor ranks to get the Primary line score, then weights the ranks to get the BL/BL Odds line number - a difference in rank of 1 can result in different line score overall ranks (probably more so in the 3rd tiers on down).

But just know that whether you use Val4 mode or the Default mode - that ALL the horses' pacelines are ranked using the same methods so they are all equally comparable to each other if you always use the same mode. This would be true if the Default beaten length value were 8 or 9 or 10 feet - they would all be rated against each other using the same basis.

IMO, there is a much greater effect of choosing a proper (and consistent) paceline and using only true contenders in their various finish categories (i.e. Win contenders, In The Money contenders, etc), and the choices you make of how (or it) to bet, than the effect of how you use adjustments and which RDSS Mode you choose.

If you have never used Validator, (IMO) don't worry about Val4 mode. Just use the Default mode and concentrate your time on the nuances of readout interpretation, the Matchup, and wagering strategy. And developing a consistent approach!

Ted
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