You'd be surprised...
I have been handicapping for over 50 years. My folks raised Thoroughbreds up out of the Napa Valley and annually we made the pilgrimage to Del Mar for the CTBA Select Yearling Sale. Usually we got one or two accepted. Starting at 15 I went along to clean stalls and such and in the afternoon I would go to the track with my Grandmother. I hit my first Daily Double that year, she bet it of course.
Tell me, what is a good sprint 1st fraction? 2nd Call? Final time? How about a mile? People make this so much more difficult than it has to be. If you handicap a track for any length of time you know what these are. So, you also know what is a poor time, or a too fast early time and slow final time or the reverse. If you have a general feel for these things than any track you go to or handicap on-line within a handful of races you know what these times are for that track. If you work one track than you see all the other tracks in that circuit and can make comparisons on the same horses. There is only one fraction you ever really have to adjust and I do it mentally. Easiest example is Churchill Downs 6f with a 180ft Run-up as compared to most tracks that have at most 70ft. When I see 21.4 or 21.6 from those races I automatically add 2/5s of a second. When I see 22.2 I check the horses other 6f races from other tracks and see how it stacks up. You just don't want to be adjusting slow horses faster. You can look at the pps of a good Allowance horse of high priced claimer and pretty much figure what kinds of 1st fraction times are common at all the tracks in his pps.
Anyway, I have had no problems with East Coast or Southern tracks over the years, just keep it simple and if need be write it down.
|