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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2 |
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04-23-2017, 11:10 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Mick:
I found on line articles and portions of the book I was able to download and print. Don't need page copies of what you referenced. Bill |
04-28-2017, 09:02 AM | #12 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Paired Tops
For anyone following this thread, you can find "paired-tops" discussed on pages 44-48 of Quinn's book The Complete Handicapper. I think it's a fine book and recommend it.
If you want to read the pages but not buy the book, you can find them here: http://books.google.com/books?id=Au-...0quinn&f=false And finally here's a DRF article Quinn wrote on the topic some years back that focused on Big Brown: http://www.drf.com/news/what-follows-good-pair |
05-05-2017, 02:34 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,154
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Thank you Mick.
Tim G
__________________
Trust but verify |
05-24-2017, 07:39 PM | #14 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Paired Lifetime Top Speed Figures
Here's an example of paired lifetime tops from my play today. "Being There" was the 4-5 post time favorite. As an older gelding with paired lifetime top speed figures, I anticipated a regression and bet on the 5-2 second favorite who won. Being There ran third.
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05-25-2017, 04:42 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Nice example Mick, actually looks like a pair of them, looking at L4 and L5, so just curious, how far apart (separated) can the ASR's be to still be considered "paired tops" as opposed to little bits of improvement or regression?
So for the sake of argument and using the most recent lines in a theoretical example, if a horse ran 84, 82 is he getting better or is that a "paired top" and vice versa if the horse ran 80, 82 - horse getting worse or "paired top"? Thanks as always for you input. |
05-26-2017, 09:47 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Thanks for the example Mick. Was wondering, what the max spread between the two last races before you consider improvement or decline. Would 83-82 be paired, would 84-82 be paired or show improvement, would 80-82 be paired or show a decline?
Your example actually shows two sets of paired performances, nice! |
05-27-2017, 08:41 PM | #17 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Hi, Bill.
On pages 45-46 of The Complete Handicapper, Jim Quinn states, "[T]he paired-figure patterns do not require identical speed figures, but figures within a length of one another. The figures will span within two, occasionally three, points of one another." I do not know what an ASR point equals. (I also do not know what a TrackMaster SR point equals either, despite considerable research.) I know RDSS uses 8.3 feet for a length and since almost everything else in the program is velocity adjusted, I suspect that the ASRs are velocity adjusted too. It's one of those things that our friend is reluctant to talk about, but we do know that the faster a horse runs, the more lengths he covers in an increment of time. None of this, however, is answering your questions. When I'm looking at the ASRs, I'm mentally using a Beyer-scale approximation, i.e. about 2 points per length in a route, about 2 1/2 points per length in a sprint. I may be completely wrong about that but I made my own speed figures for a time and used the Beyer scale as my starting point, so it's seared into my brain. What I saw with Being There was paired tops framed in a new form cycle after returning from a layoff. Are they lifetime tops? I couldn't be sure but they're at least two points (one length, two lengths?) faster than anything else in his last ten races and more than that in most of those races. I didn't expect the older gelding to run another 84 and bet away from him successfully. As far as fluctuations of a point or two from race to race, I don't know how much a player can read into that. Setting aside form, a point difference might be due to rounding in the tenths or even hundredths. (I adjusted my speed figures with Trakus data and the distance delta of the trip might move the needle two or three points.) It would be helpful if I knew exactly what an ASR point represented, but I don't so I'm flying by the seat of pants on this. Here's another example, but this one represents the paired figures below the lifetime top. (Quinn, pg 46.) I thought "Justification" might have another good effort in him and he did, unfortunately. I bet him and the Place horse, that he caught at the wire and beat a neck. He was at even money while the Place horse was 8-1. Perhaps a two-point difference is significant, or marginally so. |
06-01-2017, 08:51 AM | #18 |
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Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Speed Rating Point Value
Having posted my confession that I didn't know the value of an ASR point, I decided my penance would be to find out. So I created a spreadsheet and populated it with about 150 races that had a DTV = 0.
The following pertains solely to beaten lengths at the finish and all my information is derived from the RDSS Original screen. BTW, RDSS uses 8.333 feet for a horse's length while TrackMaster uses 8 feet (or so I've read). Of course, the number of lengths a horse covers in an increment of time depends on its velocity and a horse's velocity will change during a fraction or a furlong or even a few strides. Some of Doc Sartin's algorithms deal with that. (I think he had a JPL mathematician's help.) I make no such pretense. Consider me Fred Flintstone at the Rock Pile while he's launching moon shots. But this is what I was able to extrapolate from published and readily available information. Both TrackMaster and RDSS peg low-level claimers around 80 on their respective SR scales and that's about all they have in common. TrackMaster is Beyer-esque in that the value of a length varies with the distance of the race while the RDSS Adjusted SRs are consistent with the TPRs. RDSS ASR - 1 beaten length equals 1 point at all race distances. TM SR - the value of a beaten length varies as following: 5.5f = 2.4 points 6f = 2.2 points 6.5f = 2.0 points 7f = 1.8 points 8f = 1.6 points Caveat - These are only estimates based on what I could coax out of the information. I think they are workable but I can't vouch for their absolute precision. If anyone has something more accurate, please post. |
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