The Woodward 8/31

[Appy]

I find the horsonalities and styles in this race compelling and look forward to enjoying lively conversation about the prospects. It is my understanding our local champ (Kansas) Fort Larned will be unable to participate due to a strained muscle in a rear quarter.
I'm still working with just PP and pen, so hope some of you can post screenshots of the RDSS workings I'm still struggling to understand.

[Appy]

My initial take from the PP is to note that line 1 for 4 of the 6 entrants is the same race, so I am using that line for all those horses.
The other two are Paynter and Flat Out. I am not buying into the notation that these two are stepping up in class as they have both run at this level.
Flat Out ran this distance and surface last out, so I am also using his line 1.
Paynter's scenario is well documented. Ran second in the Belmont prior to his substantial medical difficulties. Since then his starts have been a sprint win and a second last out. I discount both those races as comeback training exercises. His race 3 back was same as this distance and surface (Haskell), so I elect to use line 3 for him.
Paynter is the E horse of this field. Maybe the lone E horse based on body of work for all others. However I'm expecting Mucho to press earlier than he usually does and make life tough on Paynter.
Flat Out ran early his last start for the only time in his record. In doing so he wired the field for the win and in admirable time superior to any recorded by any other entrant in this field. If he runs early again he may not be headed.
I designated running style as:
#1 Ron The Greek (L)
#2 Successful Dan (LP)
#3 Fort Larned (E) Scratch
#4 Flat Out (E?) (P)
#5 Paynter (E)
#6 Macho Mucho Man (EP)
#7 Alpha (P) Alpha is somehow missing from my PP so I don't have his info other than the last out date.

Successful Dan outran MMM, Ron The Greek, and Alpha last out. I'll keep the top 2 of those and match them with Paynter and Flat Out as my contenders.
I think Panter gets the lead at least by 3c. If it's easy for him he could go all the way with it. If MMM can't head Paynter before 3c he has no shot at the win. Successful Dan will make a nice run 3c and especially down the stretch, bit I think he may have too much ground to make up against this level of competition.
Flat Out is my problem. His last out was an anomaly. But since he did it so well I think he'll try to do it again. He showed has the speed to succeed.
For the time being I'm going with 4-6-5-2 or 4-5-6-2.

How do you have it and why, or where do you think I went wrong?

[Bill V.]

Grade 1 $750,000
The conditions say 3 year olds 123 older 126
all these are at 126 LBS

Looks like a nice race to watch but I am not sure about a bet
Will root for Paynter

[Bill V.]

Screen above has line marked for horse 1 Ron the Greek but this is a mistake

[Bill V.]

I don't think the DMR SanDiego Handicap is a true measure of Paynter's
form and dirt ability. I would use the MTH Haskell but its too long ago

Successful Dan also is a + line but why did it break so bad last race?

[lone speed]

Good morning Bill...

How is beautiful Del Mar..?? Great racetrack with great crowds by the beach...and full fields...

First off, great to see that Paynter is doing well and is back racing..fabulous story!!!!#@!!

Woodward stakes is a weight for age race. All horses carry 126 lbs as there are no 3 year olds entered. As I look at this race and the next major race, the Jockey Gold Cup, I keep things in perspective as trainers try to have their contenders peak for the Breeders Cup and not before.

I looked at this field of six horses and I narrowed the race down to Paynter, Successful Dan, and Mucho Macho Man.

Looks like a non betting race for me...but I see Paynter prevailing over Successful Dan..

Good skills

[lone speed]

Regarding adjusted numbers and ratings from Trackmaster..

Imho, from looking at the readouts from Rdss from the Triple Crown races and other major races, I have a suspicion that East coast horses are over rated in relation to West coast horses...same suspicion over at Thorograph.

Just an opinion....maybe for another thread...

[Appy]

Thanks very much for the response Bill. It is studying your posts for lines etc that show me I have a lot to do to get where I want to be.

Paynter is a sentimental fav of mine. Makes betting a race without bias difficult. His speed numbers bother me a bit.

Successful Dan stumbling could have been for any number of reasons. Maybe Lep tried to get a quicker response out of him. Maybe he wasn't settled square and straight in the gate. Maybe the header had his head cocked. Isn't like he stumbles out of the gate every start, but he NEVER seems to break sharp.

The incremental matchup panels may be simplest of all, yet I find them confusing. Is each panel an indicator of that call only? F3 is for third call and stretch only?

I don't see it showing the selected order of actual finish.

[Appy]

Lone speed, how did you eliminate Flat Out?

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Appy

Lone speed, how did you eliminate Flat Out?

Appy,,

The fractions that Flat Out faced in the last paceline are from Belmont's one turn route race, so for me, it will face faster fractions in today's matchup.

I see MMM moving up today but Paynter just might be a faster horse. Besides, I see Flat Out aiming for the Jockey Gold Cup next month..

Imo, Saratoga and Belmont route dirt races seem a little over rated by Trackmaster, but I leave that for another discussion.