Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-18-2021, 01:02 AM   #11
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 685
Tripoli

Name:  Tripp.png
Views: 310
Size:  141.5 KB

Name:  Med Awe.png
Views: 307
Size:  157.7 KB
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2021, 01:04 PM   #12
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,257
Interesting. It looks like a few of the jockeys will have to make up their minds on who to ride and for whom.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-20-2021, 01:24 AM   #13
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 685
Early Defections from Classic

Well it looks like Todd Pletcher has decided to scratch his two entries: Happy Saver and Dr Post from this race.

Godolphin who owns Essential Quality and Maxfield, has decided to scratch Maxfield from this race.

Regarding jockeys; Luis Saez will definitely ride Essential Quality. With the scratches, top jockey Jose Ortiz is without a mount in this race.
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2021, 09:33 AM   #14
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 685
Early Look

Mishriff- the European horse trained by John Gosden will enter the Mile and a Half Turf race instead of the Classic.

Without doing any work-up of this race;

This race looks like it centers on the early pace to be set by Knicks Go. This horse stamped himself last year in the Breeders Cup Mile Dirt with a scintillating win. The final time was 1:33.4 but more impressive was the internal pace fractions set by Knicks Go.

Who can go with Knicks Go in the early battle. Medina Spirit can go early but this horse can run off the early pace as he did when Medina Spirit ran 2nd to Life is Good will be the favorite in this year's Breeders Cup Mile dirt.
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2021, 05:19 PM   #15
Psychotic Parakeet
Grade 3
 
Psychotic Parakeet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Golden Gate Fields
Posts: 71
Idol is out of the race now, too.
__________________
There is no power greater than knowledge...
Psychotic Parakeet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2021, 10:21 AM   #16
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 685
Tough Race!!!

Early Evaluation:

Starting with the race favorites:

Knicks Go: Horse has never raced at today's distance- I used the last three pacelines to evaluate.

Essential Quality: Top contender for 3 Year Old Colt of the Year= the last pace line up to the mile marker

Max Player= Peaking at the right time and blossoming as a well rested 4 year Old Colt--the last pace line up to the mile marker

Medina Spirit- Kentucky Derby winner until otherwise, Essential Quality had a wide trip in the Derby losing by only a length. I used the last pace line and moved him up to a major effort. I also used his Kentucky Derby pace line up to the mile marker.

Hot Rod Charlie: I used the last pace line of the Pennsylvania Derby.

Tripoli: I used the Pacific Classic line up to the mile marker.

Art Collector: Another hot horse peaking at the right time and now trained by Bill Mott. I used many pacelines for this one. Very hard to evaluate....
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2021, 11:07 AM   #17
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 685
Some quick notes for today's race

Knicks Go: Will “Go Go Go from the Get Go!!!”

Essential Quality: “It is Essential that this colt get a Quality trip”

Hot Rod Charlie: Wil take off after the gate opens like a “Hot Rod” after the early pace

Max Player: Wil need a “Max” effort to be a “Player” today at the finish line

Medina Spirit: It will need some “Medina Spirit” to survive the early pace battle

Tripoli: Will need some “Tripoli” today...

Art Collector: Art just might "Collect" the top prize

Enjoy the race today-it will be some race!!!

Last edited by lone speed; 11-06-2021 at 11:14 AM.
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2021, 03:46 PM   #18
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 685
Competitive race

I narrowed my final contenders to 4:

Max Player
Art Collector
Medina Spirit
Essential Quality

The expected pace will be swift and strong; Knicks Go will surely go the front for his stablemate Essential Quality. Big question is what other horses will vie for the early pace without expending too much early energy.

Max Player will race the "classic distance" for the third time in a row; very similar pattern as the winning formula for Vino Rosso in Breeders Cup 2019.

Art Collector is fresh and improving horse; with this race as the main objective. This one has some strong sustained energy in its past performances. Can this one put it all together today without getting burned on the early pace today?

Essential Quality is fresh off a two month break by design. Will it be ready enough in its last race of his short career before heading off for Stud Duties. Will be an influential stallion in the future.

Medina Spirit will have to make a decision to send to the front or take back and make one late run.

Great race!!!!

(IMHO) I will go with Max Player and Art Collector.
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2021, 08:42 PM   #19
ranchwest
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,902
r12) 4 5 6 3
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Racetracks without turf racing CheckMark General Discussion 5 04-16-2021 05:57 PM
TC & Classic Match UP Mitch44 General Discussion 1 09-04-2020 06:05 PM
2016 BC Classic 1 1/4 on dirt lone speed 2016 14 09-26-2018 04:07 PM
Race 12- BC Classic Race 2014 lone speed Breeders' Cup 2014 - Saturday Nov 1 33 03-05-2016 05:12 PM
2015 Breeders Cup Classic Race 11 @Keeneland lone speed 2015 12 11-02-2015 12:07 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:48 PM.