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Old 11-24-2021, 05:59 PM   #21
kahunab
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Addendum to the Nov 23 Webinar: What Can We Learn from the Entries Dashboard: Part 2

Last night we did the video seminar and toward the end we handicapped two races rather quickly through some technology problems and other issues. So, the end result was yours truly here not doing what he was trying to teach and therefore miscalled both races.

So if you will indulge me, I would like to review both races because there are some lessons here for all of us. I will point out my errors as we go. Or maybe not?

MNR Race 5

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We see here on the Entries Screen several things. One, by our criteria from the first article we have 4 contenders for Win. Two, we have a lone E7 with two EP5s and a P3 in our contenders. It looks like the 2 horse can get out front, will anyone catch him? It looks like this race just from running styles will be decided Early.

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Shaded early we look at the horses up close in the early fractions and we see 4,2,6 up close. The 3 horses have good VDC with the 2 the worst of the 3. It does look like maybe the 2 can get caught.

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Here we see looking at our top 3 horses that the 4 has strong ratings across the board but is really deficient in CSR. The 6 has good ratings and good speed. The 2 horse looks good early but drops off a bit late. Notice the preceptor total for the 2 is a significant drop-off. It is looking more and more like the 4 or 6 will catch the 2.

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When looking at the 4 ratings that Rmath got us onto, VDC,CSR,PL, BPP it appears that the top two horse are the 2 and the 6. Does the 2 get caught ... ?

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It looks like the 6 caught him out of the gate and the 2 never led. The race was decided very early. I read the race too quickly and thought the 4 would be the horse to catch the 2 if anyone did. So I suggested the win would come from the 2 or the 4. But we did get the shading right. Reading it this way our top 3 earliest horses finish 1,3,4 and the earliest secondary contender ran 2nd.

(continued ...)
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Old 11-24-2021, 05:59 PM   #22
kahunab
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PEN Race 5

I think this race is a very interesting race with a pattern we should all look for.

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Using our criteria we can eliminate only one horse the 3 for win contention. We look at running styles and find a very interesting picture. We find an E8 and two E7s. That is 21 early speed points and indicates a Heavy Pressure race. We best be looking for late running styles.

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By running styles we have two contenders that run Presser or Sustained. We have the 5 who looks like a late runner but is an E8 under heavy pressure. 2 and 4 are Early horses who will be a part of the heavy pressure.

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The 5 still has great numbers. Of the two late runners, 6 and 1, the 6 appears to be stronger until we look at his LPR and he looks weak late. HMMMM, kind of a cloudy picture.

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Here is where we can get number blind. The 5 horse looks great. Even rated #1 late. Great 3rd fraction numbers. We can lose sight of the 21 early speed points and know that a late runner will win. Unless he can change his running style he will blow up and all the earlys will get caught. I also made a mistake by not checking the horses lines in my fast handicapping. The one horse was given his 3rd line back and his last line should have been the one he was given by the program. With his 3rd line back he rates at the bottom with the 6 horse.

My point is either way, running style and heavy pressure really call for us to bet the 1 and the 6 as our win choices. All numbers aside.

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I hope these two races give you some helpful ideas. Know also, that it is easy to become number blind especially if we handicap in a hurry.

Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Handicapping!
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Old 11-25-2021, 11:34 AM   #23
elocutionist
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Watched the seminar last night. Thanks Dick and Ted. I've struggled with whether a race will be won early or other than early. Could you expand on your decision making process on this a little more?

Thanks,
Phil
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Old 11-29-2021, 05:38 PM   #24
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Turf Examples and Another visit to Race Shading

There have been some requests for a look at turf races and some more examples of deciding how the Race will run, Early (E) or Other Than Early (OTE). So I thought we might look at the two Turf races we looked at on the webinar. For me, I find that the percentage of winners identified as contenders is about the same for turf and dirt using this approach.

As far as deciding whether the race will run E or OTE, I hope the process is easy to see at which point just practicing identifying the shading of old races and then looking at the charts is the best way to work on developing this art. Basically, if you identify the race running Early did the Early horses win. If you identify the race to run other than early did the later horses win.

Let’s jump in! We are looking at race 7 and 8 at Belmont on November 5th.

BEL 7

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Here we see a field of 6 horses. We have a lone E who does not meet the criteria for being a contender but we will leave him in as he is the lone E and one of the favorites. With him we have an EP6, a P5 an S3 and two S1. It has been my experience that S1s often get to far back and need some help getting up in time to win. So our initial thought is this will be decided Early. The E8 will go out front early, can anyone catch him?
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Our segments screen tells us that our E8 will indeed be out front with a good lead in the first fraction. Notice that the closest horse in the first fraction is a secondary contender, the 5. The 4 is not too far behind the 5. The 2 horse should be on the lead at the 2nd call and horses that own two fractions are dangerous critters.

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Our primary screen tells us that the 2 is the best Early but his other numbers don’t look great. His FX is not bad and his CSR is OK but not good. Notice how ESP supports our call of shading the race Early. All the contenders expend their energy late, when that happens look for the earliest of the late for the win. The 2 again looks like the earliest of the field.

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The Rx screen again substantiates that our 2 is the best EPR horse. Is there a horse that can catch him? Did he get enough of a lead to make it home? It looks to me like the 3 might be able to catch him. The 3 is an S1 and may not make it to the front in time. They both have serious questions but they are the play here. 2 and 3 are my choices.

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Interesting race, our 2 ran a presser race with the other early horse the 5 and caught him in the stretch. Our other choice the 3 ran 3rd, as often happens with one of our two choices. The 3, an S1, got too far back and never made it to the front and our two earliest horses finished 1st and 2nd. What makes this race interesting, is that it may have looked like it ran late with the 2 winning in the stretch but our two earliest first fraction horses came in together.
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Old 11-29-2021, 05:49 PM   #25
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BEL 8


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This race is an interesting mix of running styles. We have seven Pressers and an S1 who is the favorite and doesn’t meet the criteria for being a win contender. We have a P7 and a P5 which means they like to run close to the front. With all the later running horses, I am again thinking this will run early.

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We check the number 2 horse. The computer gave him a sprint line. He is on form, so lets use one of his route lines with a similar preceptor total. It looks like you can use either the 5th line or the 7th. I chose to use the 7th. But he clearly can run well from the press.

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We are shading this race early. The 2 owns the first two fractions. The closest (earliest) of the other horses are the 8 and the 1. VDC looks good on all 3.

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Again we see a picture with every horse expending his energy late which supports calling the race early. Who will be the earliest of the late? 2 looks a little shaky, but as we saw in the last race, he owns the first two fractions and is dangerous. 8 and 1 look like the horses who might catch him, with the 1 being a bit closer to the front.

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Here we see our final picture. Choosing two horses, I would choose the 2 and the 1 as my win choices. They are the earliest of the lates. Look at the Late/Early balance. They are the closest to zero, ie the earliest of the late. Which supports our decision to bet these two.
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Old 11-29-2021, 05:52 PM   #26
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As we predicted. The 2 leads to the top of the stretch and runs out of gas. The 1 ran up close, 3rd, and closed it down. The 8 couldn’t hold on and the favorite, 6, an S1 got to far back and couldn’t make it up at the end.

I hope this helps with both the process of determining the shading and the importance of doing so. If we get the shading, E or OTE, it makes our betting choices easier. Thanks for reading all the way through. Happy Handicapping!
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:08 PM   #27
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Thanks Dick, very informative. I will research past races to get a feel for E vs OTE.

Phil
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Old 11-30-2021, 05:52 PM   #28
ranchwest
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Check out R8 at PRX today, 11/30/21. Only 1 contra energy horse (OTE) in the race. Closed to win and paid $58.20 to win. Exacta paid $363.00.
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:57 PM   #29
57viking
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These are the 3 races I mentioned in Ranch's post where Dick W's 20 Q points were exceeded. This is 3 races out of 33 that I worked over the last week . Not only was the win horse a high price , but the exacta and trifectas and superfecta all paid huge. Unfortunately , the only one that I convinced my self to bet on the late horses and not the top number horses was today's at Parx.


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Old 12-01-2021, 11:23 AM   #30
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20+ Quirin Speed Point Races

It looks like you are really on to something big. I am a follower of KahunaB's and believe that he has a good spot play angle. When you get this type of race, you just eliminate all E horses. It may turn out that you can also eliminate all EP horses. They will burn each other out. Then you just handicap the other horses for the win. It may extend to the place and show position but that would have to be proven.

Viking57, Could you show us your workup that includes the Primary and Segment screens as well?. This would probably clarify things for us and maybe shed light on the horses that might place and show in these races.

Congraluations on a great find.

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