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Old 03-24-2019, 03:45 PM   #11
Bill V.
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You were

Hi Tim

Your consistency was the key for me

Thank you for posting the daily results of your top 4 selections.
Like I said it gave me a tool to spread in Doubles, Pick 3's and 4's

Good Skill
Bill
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Old 03-24-2019, 03:56 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Excellent stats Tim and a glimpse at of what we do.


The real crux though is your final decisions making in moving horses up or down, Those that accept blindly any figure or factor (Prime, Profit, SR, CSR,BLBL,V/DC etc.) will be taking the wrong fork in the road to their results. They are all complimented by a review of the horses PP's and an evaluation of the form cycle.


Lastly discipline and money management are the icing on the cake.


Terrific job buddy!


Mitch44
Hi Mitch

I thought about you when I saw this race.

The 8 had decent numbers but ran badly in 7-furlong try
She lost by many lengths in her race 2 back. She ran well 3 back
All these races were against open company. today she was back at 6 furlongs and against the state-bred competition.

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Old 03-24-2019, 05:01 PM   #13
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Thanks Mitch. As you know we had to fight a long time to get to where we are now. Like I mentioned in another post it took almost 8 yrs for me to turn the corner. Granted I was only a weekend warrior during that time but a lot of our members are in that boat now. Hopefully they can see that hard work can and will pay off. More importantly we still must work hard today to maintain our level of success.
Tim
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Old 03-24-2019, 05:03 PM   #14
Lt1
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Bill like you always say "this group is about friends helping friends win". Truer words were never spoken my friend.
Tim
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Old 03-24-2019, 07:02 PM   #15
darmar
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Talking GP6 Liza Star

Hi Bill
In Reference to #8 Liza Star, This is a prime tandem reversal. This one ran against the two m/l and post time favorites. Off the third line back, a high energy tandem, she comes up #3 TE, #2 VDC, BL/BL, #1 EPR,&TT. Now the odds at post time #3 is 2/1,
#4 is 6/5, #8 is 25/1. I just know you were on the bus with me to the cashier
Right!!!!
Darryl
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Old 03-24-2019, 07:23 PM   #16
RichieP
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Absolutely awesome work Tim.
What really stands out to me as Bill and Mitch alluded to is your consistency especially YOUR moving horses up and down creating your own "tiers".

You are a true professional in addition to a hell of a nice guy I cant wait til we meet up again at the Spa

God Bless you and yours!
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Old 03-24-2019, 08:25 PM   #17
Mitch44
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Hello Bill,


I took a look at the #8 you posted above both from the screen shot you posted and her PP from the free PP.


A quick analysis is this horses best distance is 6 F and also her highest SR, I would have used Line 3 using "Doc" guidelines. This horse is also a Early or EP type runner and in L3 runs 6F in 1:12 4/5 and in its last race ran about 1:13 3/5 a difference of about 4 lg.'s. She also steadied at the start and drifted wide. I believe she was steadied at the start to rate her and get the distance of 7 F. I don't know what RDSS shows but it appears she ran against her normal running line.


Cutting back to 6F her best distance and letting her run a normal style would greatly help her today. This horse after a troubled start made a nice move till 6 F or stretch call. The wrong distance for a horse will make them hit a brick wall as they just can not get it. With horses like this the finish is ugly in both BL and finish position, hence the big odds. The public is fixated on finish pos. and BL.


With L 3 and it comes up in your top 4 at those odds it would get a bet, even if only $2. Hope you had it Bill. Analyze the hell out of those top 4 horses. You can't consider a race a failure if its wasn't at its best dis, surface, class etc. Many times the beaten lengths and position at the stretch call are a better indication of form. This horse also had an increase in SR over its next to last race, an improvement.


Mitch44

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Old 03-24-2019, 10:00 PM   #18
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Thanks Rich for the kind words. It means a lot to me coming from Jimmys' best student and a top matcher in his own right. I count myself lucky to have met you and Karen and to have both of you as friends. I too look forward to meeting up again this year at the Spa. I'm working on getting my better half to attend this one. She came to a seminar at the Desmond and met Doc and Jim. It was the one where we met Mitch and his wife Irene for the 1st time and began a friendship that has lasted almost 30 yrs. Say hello to Karen for me and may both of you be well my friend.
Tim
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Old 03-24-2019, 10:48 PM   #19
Bill V.
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many thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Bill like you always say "this group is about friends helping friends win". Truer words were never spoken my friend.
Tim
Thank you Tim

I got choked up when I read your message,"friend helping friends win" Now that you and Richie and Karen hooked up, I am looking forward to Saratoga, It really helps me to take my treatments on time even if it means missing Saturday racing
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Old 03-24-2019, 10:55 PM   #20
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Hello Bill,


I took a look at the #8 you posted above both from the screen shot you posted and her PP from the free PP.


A quick analysis is this horses best distance is 6 F and also her highest SR, I would have used Line 3 using "Doc" guidelines. This horse is also a Early or EP type runner and in L3 runs 6F in 1:12 4/5 and in its last race ran about 1:13 3/5 a difference of about 4 lg.'s. She also steadied at the start and drifted wide. I believe she was steadied at the start to rate her and get the distance of 7 F. I don't know what RDSS shows but it appears she ran against her normal running line.


Cutting back to 6F her best distance and letting her run a normal style would greatly help her today. This horse after a troubled start made a nice move till 6 F or stretch call. The wrong distance for a horse will make them hit a brick wall as they just can not get it. With horses like this the finish is ugly in both BL and finish position, hence the big odds. The public is fixated on finish pos. and BL.


With L 3 and it comes up in your top 4 at those odds it would get a bet, even if only $2. Hope you had it Bill. Analyze the hell out of those top 4 horses. You can't consider a race a failure if its wasn't at its best dis, surface, class etc. Many times the beaten lengths and position at the stretch call are a better indication of form. This horse also had an increase in SR over its next to last race, an improvement.


Mitch44
Thanks Mitch

I did have it in our picks but we had already been knocked out,
I am on your same page most of the time, You pointed out to me long ago about current form and the stretch position. When we put together our picks at the wild west table when horses are suggested I first go to the Energy
tab and look at the horse's %med numbers and Sartin computer ESP
notations. "Bill lets include so and so horse" No he is too early in this
matchup and this distance "
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