Woodbine Wednesday Night (6/3) with Barb and Richie - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 06-03-2009, 09:13 PM

Hey Ted
I worked the first 5 races tonight at Woodbine with Barb live on the phone. Your Mom took the lead and I just listened and offered moral support!

Pretty much simple best of last 3 for the handicapping phase of the races then we switched to the wagering phase at 4 mtp focusing on value,hides etc

Betting 2 horse to win:
Race 1 - Pass - 2 hides
Race 2 - Pass - Maidens with 2 FTS (1 and we would have worked it)
Race 3 - Easy as pie win $11.80
Race 4- Total whiff - Loss
Race 5 - Route race - Had 4-5 question mark horses (sprinters -route) BUT after selecting lines the top 3 BlBl were all routes and were ALL 12/1 ml

top 2 on BLBL ran 1-2 for $16.10 winner and $77.50 exacta

We called it a night as your Mom stuffed her pockets a bit. We talked alot about finishing the handicapping part of working a race at say 5mtp then switching 100% to the WAGERING part of the equation. I'm very proud of Barb as she did terrific

point618 · 06-03-2009, 11:04 PM

Richie,i am a new user of rdss and had it the same way except i lost the 1st race. I am learning to pass and i did on the 2nd race,had the 3rd and lost the 4. I said to my wife, who knows nothing about horses,14 who never won and this software picks them both. I only got the win bet,missed the 6th and hit the 7th race for a 10.00 winner. Then the maidens got even ,should have thrown a dart in the last. Wrote myself a note to pass these maidens. Trying to learn what races to pass because i will play them all. So when you have two hides or two favorites you pass,is this correct? Oh yea i listened to your video last night it was great and had me laughing.

RichieP · 06-04-2009, 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by point618

So when you have two hides or two favorites you pass,is this correct? Oh yea i listened to your video last night it was great and had me laughing.

Morning "Point"!
I've attached the Bl/Bl from our 1st race last night. At 2 mtp the top ranked #1 was 5/1, both the #6 and #3 were at 2/1 and the #2 was 3/1 or 7/2.

I laid that out first so now I can answer honestly. For ME I virtually never play into a race with TWO hides or horses less than 5/2 odds. I was taught this years ago by Aline Best and Howard and it has stood the test of time.
In the above race if I was to hide or bet around the 6 and 3 what would I be looking at as far as a return on investment?

Well the top ranked #1 is 5/1 and the #2 is 3/1. The question at least for ME is one of risk vs reward "Point".The MOST i can expect to get back if I bet this race(betting around or "hiding the TWO favs) is a 5/1 win payoff on the #1.

The thing then becomes is a 5/1 MAX payoff enough of a reward to RISK betting against not one but two hide horses. Answering quickly for me the answer has to be no way Jose.

Now show me another race with 2 hides but this time I have a horse going at say 10/1 or 15/1 plus another good priced guy and now I might be willing to consider playing against 2 hides because the reward in THIS race is quite different. We haven't even talked about vulnerable or false favs or anything like that. Just risk reward based on ODDS and what we have to play against.

I'm glad you liked the video. I am in process of making another one but I got slightly distracted yesterday.

I make them when I am feeling good about both my wagering/capping and life in general and I LOVE to hear when folks like you enjoy it to the point of laughter. I try to never underestimate the power of "Feeling good"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSK9kkM7GL4

mikesal57 · 06-04-2009, 07:53 AM

Hey Rich & barb....nice going last nite...

But you left a little too early..

when u check out the 7TH race , you'd see why...

mucho matching earlies....i took the only horse that could close well

If you watch the race....you never would think he had a shot or even get up

mike

went to sleep after that ..with a smile again...

mikesal57 · 06-04-2009, 07:59 AM

nice...another video....

Hey, would u like doing a "match-up" video here for some of the guys?

mike

RichieP · 06-04-2009, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hey Rich & barb....nice going last nite...

But you left a little too early..

when u check out the 7TH race , you'd see why...

mucho matching earlies....i took the only horse that could close well

If you watch the race....you never would think he had a shot or even get up

mike

went to sleep after that ..with a smile again...

Mike
You are doing awesome work and I LOVE your identifying the races like you do! Very nice pop once again

RichieP · 06-04-2009, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

nice...another video....

Hey, would u like doing a "match-up" video here for some of the guys?

mike

I will and I think it might be time for YOU to consider putting up some of the races you have hit laying out your process if you so desire. My man you are in the zone baby!

mikesal57 · 06-04-2009, 09:13 AM

thxs and will do...

only wish I had a little more time

mike

tfm · 06-04-2009, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Race 4- Total whiff - Loss

Gave out the winner of this one over at DT. But I can't take all the credit. Right before handicapping the race I stopped over at PA and read that scintillating (and very informative) thread on Turf Sprints. Got me the winner post haste.

PA Link: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=58450

Ted Craven · 06-04-2009, 02:27 PM

TFM, Ok, so the winner was in Post Position 2 (i.e. inside) and showed ability to run forwardly?

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Rating it off it's Turf ability (i.e. Energy), it's a toss, for me. Using its 2nd line (main track) it wins...

What trip aspects make it clear for you?

Ted

06-04-2009, 07:53 AM	#4
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Hey Rich & barb....nice going last nite... But you left a little too early.. when u check out the 7TH race , you'd see why... mucho matching earlies....i took the only horse that could close well If you watch the race....you never would think he had a shot or even get up mike went to sleep after that ..with a smile again... __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

06-04-2009, 07:59 AM	#5
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	nice...another video.... Hey, would u like doing a "match-up" video here for some of the guys? mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

06-04-2009, 09:13 AM	#8
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thxs and will do... only wish I had a little more time mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

06-04-2009, 02:27 PM	#10
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	TFM, Ok, so the winner was in Post Position 2 (i.e. inside) and showed ability to run forwardly? Rating it off it's Turf ability (i.e. Energy), it's a toss, for me. Using its 2nd line (main track) it wins... What trip aspects make it clear for you? Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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06-03-2009, 09:13 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Woodbine Wednesday Night (6/3) with Barb and Richie Hey Ted I worked the first 5 races tonight at Woodbine with Barb live on the phone. Your Mom took the lead and I just listened and offered moral support! Pretty much simple best of last 3 for the handicapping phase of the races then we switched to the wagering phase at 4 mtp focusing on value,hides etc Betting 2 horse to win: Race 1 - Pass - 2 hides Race 2 - Pass - Maidens with 2 FTS (1 and we would have worked it) Race 3 - Easy as pie win $11.80 Race 4- Total whiff - Loss Race 5 - Route race - Had 4-5 question mark horses (sprinters -route) BUT after selecting lines the top 3 BlBl were all routes and were ALL 12/1 ml top 2 on BLBL ran 1-2 for $16.10 winner and $77.50 exacta We called it a night as your Mom stuffed her pockets a bit. We talked alot about finishing the handicapping part of working a race at say 5mtp then switching 100% to the WAGERING part of the equation. I'm very proud of Barb as she did terrific __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

06-03-2009, 11:04 PM	#2
point618 AlwNW1X Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 7	Richie,i am a new user of rdss and had it the same way except i lost the 1st race. I am learning to pass and i did on the 2nd race,had the 3rd and lost the 4. I said to my wife, who knows nothing about horses,14 who never won and this software picks them both. I only got the win bet,missed the 6th and hit the 7th race for a 10.00 winner. Then the maidens got even ,should have thrown a dart in the last. Wrote myself a note to pass these maidens. Trying to learn what races to pass because i will play them all. So when you have two hides or two favorites you pass,is this correct? Oh yea i listened to your video last night it was great and had me laughing.