Way early Derby musings - marathon method

[lone speed]

Here is a great links to past Derby pps and 2014 Derby...

Link
http://www.trackphantom.com/KyDerby.html

[lone speed]

Bris pps

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...4PointsPPs.pdf

[atkinsrr]

Hey Bill, was just reading your post again ...Derby musings-marathon method..and I noticed your comment about only 9 horses that have gone wire to wire or which gained both position and lengths against a 112.0 or faster. You didn't include Tapiture in that bunch...doesn't he qualify with his race from 30Nov13CD KYJC ? or are you just considering races as a 3yo??

[Bill Lyster]

I was using the graded stakes run this year as basis for that comment and the earliest race I recorded was the Robert B Lewis on Feb 8th.

I decided after last year, when one of the contenders ran a fast race in October or November and then never came close to it after the first of the year, to not consider such horses. He could not surpass a late 2yo year time as a maturing 3yo so he should have been ignored.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Here is my spreadsheet. Miles are calculated from 9f time less 2 x 6.4 seconds with beaten lengths adjusted at 5L = 1 sec. If the race was 8.5 furlongs the beaten lengths are added and then 6.4 seconds deducted.

Each running style is sorted by best mile time. Note, no top 15 times appear in the SP category. SS = sustained. Also note that more than one E or EP type has multiple best miles in the top 15 and sometimes the top 5.

Just to the left of the Finish Position is a column labeled "Pos". I gave one point for every position gained between 1/4 - 1/2 call and 1 pt for each position gained between 1/2 and 3/4 call and 2 pts for every position gained between 3/4 and stretch call.

In the Lengths Back section to the right of the finish lengths beaten is column "L+". I gave points for lengths gained on the same basis as for "Pos", so I could compare horses that gained BOTH position and lengths at these calls. You will see horses that gained position but lost lengths - I don't like that very much.

To the right of "L+" is an unlabeled column that simply adds values in the Pos and L+ columns. the farther from the lead that a horse runs the larger number it needs to overcome the pace, positioning and lengths behind. I would consider for further consideration only the best horses in each positional running category, so I like the Pressers Danza and Ride on Curlin with 8+ figures better than most of the SP runners. But I took it a bit further.

The lines marked in Dark Red are for horses that ran against a 3/4 time of 112 or better WHICH ALSO HAVE A POSITIVE "Pos + L+" total. I cannot imagine this Derby run in anything so slow as 112 unless its muddy.

To me Wicked Strong looks like the best closer if Calif Chrome enters a speed duel.

these are close but not my final selections.

Good luck,

[Segwin]

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Hoppertunity, the 6-1 second choice in the Kentucky Derby, was scratched from the race Thursday morning because of soreness in his left front foot.

The injury was a blow to trainer Bob Baffert and to the quality of the Derby field. Hoppertunity had run well against Derby favorite California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby, and that was without an aggressive push from jockey Mike Smith. Many observers believed he was peaking just in time for Kentucky.

[Bill Lyster]

I see Chitu, General a Rod and Wildcat Red on the lead. These three in order have the 2/7, 6 and 5th best mile times. all appear to have a lot of heart. Following them is California Chrome with the 1st and 3rd best mile times (1st by .40 over Chitu and almost a full second over Wildcat Red, btw!!) and Candy Boy (4th best).

The only closer who has run faster than 112 is Wicked Strong, but there should be good kicks from Intense Holiday, Dance with Fate, Danza.

My win picks would be CC, WS with Candy, IH, DWF and Danza in second. I went away from Candy because CC beat drew off in their last go round, but he still could be the place horse.

Reserving all rights to wheel others depending on odds.

Good luck,

[Mr.Pagine]

Beep.......Beep.......Beep.......Beep.........Beep....

Back up the truck P&C'rs - all California Chrome all the time.

1) California Chrome
2) Danza

May all of your bets cash.

[Bill Lyster]

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