Saturday Gulfstream Turf

[RichieP]

This is the 12th from Gulfstream on Saturday

[RichieP]

/./

[RichieP]

...

[RichieP]

,,

[Bill Lyster]

The 3 and 11 are the earliest of the early in here. The 3 has run 111.2 and 111.6 in the last two and NO ONE seems to be able to press that pace, including the 11 who ran credibly as a presser last out in 112.2.

The 2 would have to revert to a sustained form from line 5, but wins were from 2nd place in slow fractions.

The 5 presses from 3rd in 112.6 and usually gives ground.

The 7's last race was first on turf and she steadied early; best dirt route show pressing a 110.6

Line 3 for the 9 vs a 110.8 is good enough to compete here.

The 10 lost a tandem to the 3 in the last by 1.5 lengths, but no other races other than the last at this pace.

The 11 has lead recently in 48+ and 112+, but couldn't get lead in a time slower than the 3 should put up

Of the 2, 9 and 10 I like the 10 best as she made up positions 9-6-4 (and lengths) to the stretch in last vs the pacesetter.

3 to win and 3x10 box; hope the 15/1 odds hold on the 10. trifecta might be 3-9/10-9/10/2.

The 7 is ML'd at 20/1 and horse ran credibly in mile route on 2/2/11; race notes say she steadied early in only turf route and she might add to some exotic payoff if pressing this pace without major incident.

good luck tomorrow,,,,

[PeteC]

Good morning guys. Unfortunately Bill, there are a few scratches here. The 3,7,8 and 12 are OUT. Could have been a nice payoff on your original picks.

After the scratches, #11 appears to be the early leader. I used the second line for today’s pace: 48.3 112.3. Do you think this one can take them all the way?

I feel the race will run OTE. I narrow the race to the 1,2 and 9 but can’t separate them confidently.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Bill for the great race work up. Hope you can give us an update after
the scratches

Here is a updated APV and CR screen shot

Thanks Pete

GS
Bill V.
Lake Park Fl.

[Bill V.]

Tandems

im going to use the Jan 16 8.5 Turf race at GP as the key
race line
Projected Pace of race

24.6 48.7 112.6 142.8
But for todays POR I will use line 8
for horse 11 Its Not For Love
22.9 46.9 111.3 142

FPLR The 10 Sacred Desire and 2 Road tracks Dream Tandem
race Mar 17 23.5 46.9 111.3 141.5

Running Styles

H1 Morningsideheights SUS
H2 Road Track's Dream EP 48.7 112.4 just missed exactly
1 year ago in almost the same race
H4 Smart Tori SUS Probably just in for an Off The Turf try
H5 Run Jamaican's Run EP
H6 Florida Straits SP Long layoff
H9 Gators Tracks + EP and SUS Line 3 and 4 +
H10 Sacred Desire SUS beat the 2 in a fast POR
H11 Its Not For Love Early 23.5 48.3 111.9

I think the 11 can win so the race will go early
if not the 1 is my 2nd bet

11 1 6

GS
Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Now this race flops to an OTE race for me.

I used line 3 for the 11: 23.8-48.6-113.2-144 because it was his most competitive. He might run faster on the lead but historically horses go past this one in the stretch.

The FPLR is the 10 off the tandem with the scratched 3 horse. The power lines for the 9 (L2 and L3) are very sustained but the horse is alive and passing several. It looks like the 9 will get first run on the 10 running from mid pack or closer. 9 is the #2 APV and #3 class horse. Primary pick with the 10 add good odds for win/place.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Rich for putting up this race. it reminded me of the Matching Earlys
No Tolerance Race Page 82 from The Match Up Book
The 2 5 6 and 9 to me all would battle for position to be 2nd or 3rd behind
the lone early number 11, using more energy than they needed to.
The 11 would get a clear lead but was able to slow the pace
of race down.

" The gate opens and No Tolerance goes for the lead and will have a clear lead by the first quarter mile and by the half mile have the race under control.
No Tolerance will go wire to wire" Jim Bradshaw page 83
The Match Up 2

Nice first instint Pete hope you went with it and took the 1

GS
Bill V.
St. Lucie FL