" Monkey" catches another FTS at $ 27.40

[Mitch44]

After dabbling at GP I swung over to OP to catch the 9th there which made my day as the FTS paid $27.40 and keyed a $77.20 EX.

COMPLETED:920cb-36ad2	OP	#9	$10 Win	1, 4	none	$20.00	$137.00	+ $117.00
COMPLETED:d41e3-3a354	OP	#9	$3 Exacta	BX, 1, 4	none	$6.00	$0.00	- $6.00
COMPLETED:21949-e5a92	OP	#9	$5 Exacta	1, 4, WT, 3	none	$10.00	$193.00	+ $183.00
COMPLETED:27fcc-434b1	OP	#9	$2 Exacta	3, WT, 1, 4	none	$4.00	$0.00	- $4.00

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Wow another good score Mitch. Good thing the monkey doesn't know the stats on how often FTS lose.
Tim

[The Pook]

Ah yes....and then there’s the monkey. Good one Mitch. I haven’t a clue on FTS’s

Pook

[darmar]

Oh that "" Monkey " he is something else
Darryl

[Mitch44]

Thanks Tim, Mike and Darryl. "The Monkey " is a happy Camper for sure.

Your correct about FTS Tim, many races like this one have multiple FTS in them which harm any stats. Additionally there is only one winner, barring the rare DH, so that also effects stats. So yes the impact value is greatly effected by those two things.They are probably the most difficult challenge in handicapping.

Thankfully when throwing his darts the "Monkey" pays little attention to stats, particularity from others. Stats, models etc. can be very deceptive and are greatly hindered by poor data collection.He does pay attention to stats that he gathered or researched himself.

Also Tim as we have discussed stats take a back seat to Factors. They tend to be a single data point whereas a Factor has multiple points. In layman terms a single trainer stat will not supersede all the data in a horses past performance's. Far too many reply on stats now a days in this information age. Even good stats are impacted by or lessened because of everyone having knowledge of them in todays information age.
After a lost most of us will peruse the PP's of the horse to see what we missed, normally we find it. There are exceptions such as young horses, FTS however normally the answer is there. One has to do this before the race is over to train the mind and than they jump up at you.

For years with Sartin, pace lines for me were a problem now they jump up at me or as Sartin would say they "loom " up at you. Same with stats,factors etc. Try it without the Preceptor and you'll see, even identical Speed Rating for lines aren't always identical. Understanding CONCEPT as Sartin would say is the key. If your not using the Preceptor for your lines due to stubborn resistance to change good luck with that. I've been harping about the Preceptor for several years now.

All races to include MSW with several FTS are nothing more than puzzles. As Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw would say you have to use what you have.

Mitch44

[Old Arkie Gal]

Happy to see that the Monkey is alive and well. You amaze with your ability to pick up the past performances and come up with contenders that make such a profitable ticket. That monkey doesn't check his brain at the door when he picks up a racing form.
Pat

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations Mitch - nice hit with a scarcity of traditional info to go by! (BTW, I moved this post from the Selections forum because ... not a Selection, more of a celebration).

For those not privy to the 'monkey' analysis, RDSS also has pretty good tools for First Time Starters (also not in the mainstream). Among them, the tote ratios Tx1 and Tx2 (aka PW% Place/Win ratio). Also the WR - Work Rank (Entries screen) as a supporting factor.

The Winner was ranked Top 3 in both Tx ratios and particularly =2nd on the more important PW%, and although the screenshot below uses closing tote pools, I am positive that something similar would show up in the last few minutes. This is an angle we have used before (a few Saratoga meetups): when a FTS is let go at long odds (here 12-1) yet someone or collection of someones bets based on their knowledge/belief of a horse's readiness using factors not generally accessible to the public - that money has to show up in the pools and this then becomes a proxy factor (particularly the imbalance of the other pools compared to Win pool) for whatever the non-public info might be.

The winner was also in the Top 3 (tied 3rd) in Work Rank, thus even with no running history, was prepped for its opener among the top horses.

Another factor to use for FTS is the ProfitLine, which is why I elevated the #4 horse with PL=2. I make no comment on the other horses I left in the Primary group, except that the heavy favourite is a natural to keep in any vertical bet structure.

The 'monkey' must be blabbing to someone out there ... someone (or group of someone's, possibly including some RDSS users ) knew something!

Still - congratulations on your research, and payoff in this race - very efficient bet structuring!

Ted






Note: I did not bet on this race. I took a look only after seeing this thread.

[Mitch44]

Thanks Ted. As Bradshaw would say;" You have to use what you have." Sorry about the wrong forum as I thought it was posted in the General, which is where I try to post them.

Speaking of blabbing,most refuse to bet others picks. Something I seldom do is get hung up and not get my bet in,even when conversing with others. Talking w/ LT1 I blew a $12.80 winner, after which I offered him the rest of my longshots to no avail. Even after it won he said he never would have bet it in a million years. I doubt anyone else would have either. The horse really should have paid much more but I suppose the connections bet it. "The Monkey" hit 3 Md. race three days in a row for big profits, two FTS and a second time starter.

Their there for the interpretation. While I'm not presently using RDSS most members fail to use many of the tools within it, I agree very much with you on that point Ted.

I look at workouts for all types of races that I play using Sartin guidelines and with an understanding of his concept to workouts. Every race and workout contributes to improving or declining form, therefore I always consider them even in G 1's. However like anything, to include good factors, we run into multiple horses with good rating or ranking that must be separated and decided on. In this example 4 horses all with good w/o ratings.

I strongly agree Ted that if they don't understand Sartin's concept of workouts and form they should use the workout tool and ratings within RDSS.

Mitch44