A Good Saturday (3/18) - Pace and Cap

mick · 03-19-2017, 07:54 AM

I am a two-horse, "hedge" bettor. I'll eat some chalk on one horse, the "saver", to get a price on the second. Doc Sartin said you should try to stay around even (thus the place bets, exacta boxes, etc.) and not get in a financial hole as you wait for your longer priced horses to come home. That's great advice and I've found that betting two horses with a short-odds saver is the best way for me to do that. Yesterday, in the span of 45 minutes, I had two of my long-odds horses to win and it made for a profitable day and a profitable 20-race cycle.

The first was at MVR 7 when Risener (13-1) got a perfect stalking trip on the betting favorite Shupanga and cruised past him to win and pay $28.00. Risener was 2nd on BL and 3rd on Rx2 and Rx3. At those odds, I could NOT NOT bet him.

mick · 03-19-2017, 08:17 AM

You can see that with the Oaklawn race, I didn't bother to eliminate the non-contenders. Those two big red E8s popped up with BL-ranked horses and the analysis phase was over. It was time to bet.

I completed a 20-race cycle hitting only 50% of the races but with a ROI of 1.45.

Mitch44 · 03-19-2017, 09:32 AM

Congrats Mick!!! And on your 20 race cycle.
Mitch44

Bill V. · 03-19-2017, 10:33 AM

Hi Mick
Those are two nice wins. I'm sure Doc would be very proud of you.
I moved this post to the teaching forum.

This is a excellent example of wagercapping and using all your tools
Good Skill
Bill

Jeebs · 03-19-2017, 11:21 AM

Thanks for sharing, Mick. This is absolutely a great example of wagercapping done right. I have stuck with the Win bets, although I did dive into one saver exacta this past week that only served to cut losses from a blown Win wager. I still feel that I need more practice with the Win bets before involving myself in multiple pools. Lately, I have experienced the inevitable swings in bankroll, but so not to press in an effort to restore my account quickly, I scaled back a tad. It worked wonders yesterday at TAM, although I ended up eating chalk in a few races. It also has me thinking more and more about establishing my own personal odds line.

Not trying to denigrate Ted's work or the work of Doc and associates, but just like paceline/run style/output analysis, intuition seems to work best. Although the chalks I bet were 8/5 final odds (below the 5/2 guideline), they appeared to have at least an even money shot at winning and were sound wagers IMO. BL/BL and Rx are wonderful tools in their own right, but as Ted alluded to, they are not black boxes. The beauty of the Methodology is that it is ultimately user driven. If you simply let the computer think for you instead of providing your intuition to the process, it seems like it would be more difficult to sustain success.

Lt1 · 03-19-2017, 12:02 PM

Very nice work Mick.
Tim G

mick · 03-19-2017, 02:03 PM

This is the Oaklawn Park race in which the two E8s dueled far ahead of the field. The longer-priced horse #6 Abbaa won at (8-1). Oaklawn was fast, speed was not tiring and this one felt like a gift to a pace handicapper.

Brian Chamberlain · 03-19-2017, 02:22 PM

Mick, nice win. These are the kind of educational posts I like. There is no black box, horse 'capping more analogous to the commodities market than the stock market.

Happy winnings!
Brian

03-19-2017, 07:54 AM	#1
mick Abiding Student Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 711	A Good Saturday (3/18) I am a two-horse, "hedge" bettor. I'll eat some chalk on one horse, the "saver", to get a price on the second. Doc Sartin said you should try to stay around even (thus the place bets, exacta boxes, etc.) and not get in a financial hole as you wait for your longer priced horses to come home. That's great advice and I've found that betting two horses with a short-odds saver is the best way for me to do that. Yesterday, in the span of 45 minutes, I had two of my long-odds horses to win and it made for a profitable day and a profitable 20-race cycle. The first was at MVR 7 when Risener (13-1) got a perfect stalking trip on the betting favorite Shupanga and cruised past him to win and pay $28.00. Risener was 2nd on BL and 3rd on Rx2 and Rx3. At those odds, I could NOT NOT bet him. __________________ mick Illustrated Glossary

03-19-2017, 08:17 AM	#2
mick Abiding Student Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 711	You can see that with the Oaklawn race, I didn't bother to eliminate the non-contenders. Those two big red E8s popped up with BL-ranked horses and the analysis phase was over. It was time to bet. I completed a 20-race cycle hitting only 50% of the races but with a ROI of 1.45. __________________ mick Illustrated Glossary Last edited by mick; 03-19-2017 at 08:21 AM.

03-19-2017, 10:33 AM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Great lesson Hi Mick Those are two nice wins. I'm sure Doc would be very proud of you. I moved this post to the teaching forum. This is a excellent example of wagercapping and using all your tools Good Skill Bill

03-19-2017, 02:03 PM	#7
mick Abiding Student Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 711	This is the Oaklawn Park race in which the two E8s dueled far ahead of the field. The longer-priced horse #6 Abbaa won at (8-1). Oaklawn was fast, speed was not tiring and this one felt like a gift to a pace handicapper. __________________ mick Illustrated Glossary

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03-19-2017, 09:32 AM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Congrats Mick!!! And on your 20 race cycle. Mitch44

03-19-2017, 11:21 AM	#5
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Thanks for sharing, Mick. This is absolutely a great example of wagercapping done right. I have stuck with the Win bets, although I did dive into one saver exacta this past week that only served to cut losses from a blown Win wager. I still feel that I need more practice with the Win bets before involving myself in multiple pools. Lately, I have experienced the inevitable swings in bankroll, but so not to press in an effort to restore my account quickly, I scaled back a tad. It worked wonders yesterday at TAM, although I ended up eating chalk in a few races. It also has me thinking more and more about establishing my own personal odds line. Not trying to denigrate Ted's work or the work of Doc and associates, but just like paceline/run style/output analysis, intuition seems to work best. Although the chalks I bet were 8/5 final odds (below the 5/2 guideline), they appeared to have at least an even money shot at winning and were sound wagers IMO. BL/BL and Rx are wonderful tools in their own right, but as Ted alluded to, they are not black boxes. The beauty of the Methodology is that it is ultimately user driven. If you simply let the computer think for you instead of providing your intuition to the process, it seems like it would be more difficult to sustain success.

03-19-2017, 12:02 PM	#6
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,150	Very nice work Mick. Tim G __________________ Trust but verify

03-19-2017, 02:22 PM	#8
Brian Chamberlain RDSS Student Join Date: May 2014 Location: Grapevine, Texas Posts: 51	Mick, nice win. These are the kind of educational posts I like. There is no black box, horse 'capping more analogous to the commodities market than the stock market. Happy winnings! Brian