Using track variant to your advantage

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Back in the early 90's the average variant was 17. We use to accept as normal 7 to 27. Over 27 or under 7 they were considered abnormal. Plus back than each point was worth 1/2 length so a 27 would be slow 5 lengths and a 7 was fast 5 lengths. So with the "Doc's" recommended adjustment of 50% its not a huge adjustment either way.

Was this the DRF Track Variant that you're talking about, or the Trackmaster variant?

[Lt1]

Hi Jeebs back then we were using the DRF sr+tv.
Tim G

[Mitch44]

Jeebs: I was talking about the DRF variant. It really doesn't make a difference whether its the DRF, Trackmaster etc. as long as they apply a consistent procedure, which they do along with some other services.

The keys are: beware of shippers and if a shipper allow RDSS to make the adjustment, View the variant in the context of the others in the race as to a decision if its abnormal particularity if their all from the same track, settings of 50% in RDSS compensates for most variations that are close to the average for the field in the race and trust the adjustments in RDSS.

In your example Jeebs the 30 variant wasn't in the average or norm of the field and wasn't a shipper therefore it was correct to select another line. If there isn't another line than use what you have and trust RDSS.
Mitch44

[Mitch44]

BTW if you only play 1 or 2 track you can determine what the average daily variants are for that or those two tracks. Take a piece of paper and record the dates in sequence.

Then look through your download from RDSS of that track and review every horse's past performance and record next to the date place the variant for that date. Just in one download you'll be amazed how much you can collect. Soon you'll have them all. Also record the track condition because you'll want to extract the sloppy or off tracks for a separate file.

Don't determine the average off 60 days of data as it may not be current. Break it up in smaller chunks.

I myself don't do this because I play many different track and I'm all over the country however if I only played 1 or 2 tracks it would be useful. In my previous post of looking on the average of the field accomplishes the same thing without the work Ditto this for beaten lengths at the calls etc.

Now wouldn't a computer program that did this stuff automatically and warned you of a bad line or posted the norm for a variant and BL for the calls be nice. Keep dreaming.
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

The keys are: beware of shippers and if a shipper allow RDSS to make the adjustment, View the variant in the context of the others in the race as to a decision if its abnormal particularity if their all from the same track, settings of 50% in RDSS compensates for most variations that are close to the average for the field in the race and trust the adjustments in RDSS.

Interesting that you say that. There is a Laurel shipper in the 1st race at Parx today (see the Selections thread) where although the DTV adjustment (-12) isn't totally extreme, the horse's numbers produced from the various massaging are so out of whack with itself that I can't trust using the last line to rate. I did note that the line could be an example of a late blooming 4 year old who is finally putting it together, but if I am going to bet money (which I am), I would select an alternative line and watch to see if it can replicate the previous effort before using said last line in future wagering decisions.

[Mitch44]

I would use Line 1. Your correct as he is an improving 4 yr. old. Like you don't know if he can repeat it plus he is in an old cycle. BTW this 1st race at Park today ( 21 Mar. 17) is an extreme challenge for picking pace lines.
Mitch44