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Old 02-07-2012, 02:26 AM   #1
chuckg
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Never bet on or aginst the favorite.

Never bet on or against the favorite.

Is this an old "hossy" phrase? Or, is it for real?

And, how do the veterans on this board approach the favorite.

The reason I ask is that after I reviewed my last three 20 race cycles I found that I actually lost money when the favorite won. My win percentage betting two horses to win was 55% 50% and 50%. This was at Tampa (maybe that means something, I don't know). My average loss per 20 race cycle was $5.40 on a pair of $2 win bets each race. When the favorite won, the most it paid was $3.60. That means I lost at least 40 cents even though I selected the appropriate pacelines and bet on the winner.

The favorite appeared in my top two RDSS rankings 27 times in those 60 races, nearly half. But it only won 9 of those 27 races, a third.

I religiously bet my top two ranked horses to win because I don't know any better.

My question to the wise men of this forum is: When the favorite appears in your screen do you pass the race? Or do you skip the horse and make two place bets? Or do you hide the horse and bet the next two horses to win?

What do you do?
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:19 AM   #2
partsnut
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chuckg:

Quote:
Never bet on or against the favorite.

Is this an old "hossy" phrase? Or, is it for real?
Great question.
There are some on this board that will hide any horse below 5-2 odds.
I personally look to beat the favorite.
I normally will try and do that betting just one horse.
However, I will bet 2 horses if they present a "value" situation.

From what you are saying you are hitting about 25% of your bets (betting 2 horses) where one third of your winners were favorites. In my humble opinion, you won't make much money at that rate unless your hitting some long odds horses as well. I guess you would have to gauge your ROI in order for you to ascertain if your are using a correct method.
I have found through my experiences that just betting one horse to win I would need 28 - 40% winners.
I have done this for 150 and 200 race cycles and had just a marginal plus ROI.
I am of the opinion that a 20 race cycle is meaningless because it's what happens in the long run that will tell you if what you are doing is worth the time and effort you are spending on it.

Last edited by partsnut; 02-07-2012 at 06:21 AM.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:45 AM   #3
Charlie D
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Hi chuck



Look at the live odds and then the Odds on the BL/BL Screen. If the BL/BL odds are bigger than those in the live market, the software is telling you the horse in question is a poor investment, if lower it is telling you the horse in question is probably a good investment.

Example:

Live odds - BL/BL odds

Evens --- 2-1 - POOR Investment
2-1 --- Evens - GOOD Investment
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Last edited by Charlie D; 02-07-2012 at 06:57 AM.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:49 AM   #4
Bill V.
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Favorites and 2 horse betting

The more I learn the more this problem seems to take care of itself

The only time I think about the odds on my two horses is at betting
time, If I do a race then go and make my bet. at this moment I used to
rework the race and wagercap against the favorite Truth be told I do better when I work a race in advance and put in my bet without knowing odds
I have lost many $9.00 winners who were $5.60 winners . Lots of money
comes in as the race is running. How often is the actual betting favorite in the result charts the horse who was the favorite at 2 minutes to post?

To answer your question I bet into a race to win that race.
if it means betting a short odds horse %60 and a good odds horse 40 %
that is what I will do.
I'm SLOWLY learning there are far less horses that can win a race than
I ever believed in the past. This part of working races has been hard for me
to understand and old habits die hard but with practice and belief I am improving.

I will bet my top two choices to win, I need two horses to do 1 thing
win the race I don't want to have to battle the tote board too, now I have 3 battles. and I could win 1 and still lose

My opinion
Bill
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:14 AM   #5
For The Lead
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What you should know

As far as your “hossy” statement goes, for the very, very, very LARGE majority of people playing races are concerned, it’s GREAT ADVICE, since following it means you will always be “even” ( having never bet a race ), which is much better than losing.

Bill V makes a good point in his post. In the “old days” when one went to the track and the only money in the pool was that which was bet AT the track and there were no simulcasting outlets or online wagering, with 2 minutes before post time you had a good idea of what the final odds would be. Today, that is all changed.

Ok, favorites come in different varieties. We know that favorites, in general, win about 35% of all races, but is that all there is to know about favorites? No.

Mixed in with that 35% winning percentage are what is called “odds on” favorites. For those of you who may not know what that means, an “odds on” favorite is a favorite whose “off odds” are less than 1/1 (even money). These favorites win at a rate of about 52%, moreover, they represent about 50% of all favorites. THESE favorites can be identified, for the most part, with 2 minutes before post time regardless of the money that comes in from various outlets. Money coming in from those outlets will generally just worsen the situation!

Let’s take 100 favorites. We know we can expect 35 of them to win. However, since 50% of these favorites are odds on and 52% of them will win, that means 26 of those odds on favorites will win, so let’s just eliminate them for a moment and look at what is left.

So now that we have eliminated the odds on favorites, we now have the remaining 50 favorites to work with. We know from our original sample of 100 races, that we can expect 35 of those races to be won by the favorite. But now we have eliminated 26 of those winners because they came from the group of favorites that were odds on, that leaves us with just 9 winning favorites from the remaining 50 races. That means just 18% of these favorites win.

All of a sudden we have two groups of favorites.
GROUP A - wins 18% of races
GROUP B - wins 52% of races.
Which group of favorites do you want to bet against?

What about second choices?
60% of all second choices win where their odds are 5/2 or less.

So what does all this mean?
Your best wagering opportunities are in races where there is no “odds on” favorite and the second choice is greater than 5/2.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:58 AM   #6
Charlie D
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Chuck

Follow Up #87 - Betting Strategy for Some..... Back to Basics , may be of assistance to you.
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Last edited by Charlie D; 02-07-2012 at 10:01 AM.
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Old 02-07-2012, 05:30 PM   #7
alydar_ David
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According to Dick Mitchell 15% of favorites are legitimate and 15% are false. The rest are vulnerable. You don't want to bet against a legitimate favorite. Either find some way to use him (i.e., horizontal bets or exotics) or pass the race.

Dick also postulated that 10% of all race outcomes are unexplainable. So, don't go beating yourself after the fact trying to figure out why that hopeless nag beat you in a photo.

I first started handicapping using The Sheets. One of the first things Len Ragozin said was to see if you can find a horse to beat the favorite. If you can't then pass the race. Len Friedman said you should generally find about three good win bets on a nine race card. That means you're passing 2/3 of all races (betting one horse to win).

I know, I know, it hurts to pass after you've put all that time and energy into a race. But you don't have to pass. You just have to pass making a win bet. If that 3/5 shot is legitimate there's no reason to not put him on top of an exotic wager. But you don't have to bet him to win.

There's another old hossy adage, "Ain't a man alive who paid his mortgage at 3 to 5."
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:27 PM   #8
Charlie D
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Chuck

Doc Sartin Video Seminar 1998 may be of assistance to you.
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:59 PM   #9
Charlie D
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D View Post
Chuck

Doc Sartin Video Seminar 1998 may be of assistance to you.

Edit to add

Quote:
Top Twoitis is a terrible disease
Doc Sartin - Doc Sartin Video Seminar 1998

Iterested in Sartin Methodology.?? Get downloading and watching and listening imho.
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Old 02-07-2012, 10:31 PM   #10
lsosa54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post

So what does all this mean?
Your best wagering opportunities are in races where there is no “odds on” favorite and the second choice is greater than 5/2.
Well thought out logic, FTL. I might also narrow the playable list down further to 4 and up and no maidens. It doesn't mean that favs even money or higher won't win and the same for 2nd favs 5/2 or higher, but you're putting the percentages much more in your favor, which is all we are trying to do.
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