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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 05-07-2018, 05:32 PM   #11
Lt1
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Nice work Mitch and Bill. I just like to point out that imo keeping a model of tracks you play is important. As an example although at most tracks horses with %meds at or over 70% rarely win it is not always the case. Currently at Parx based on my contender and paceline selections the % med of the winner in the last 10 has ranged from 69.1 to 71.4[2times]. Prior to that the avg winners %med ranged from 68.2 to 70.7. If I remember correctly Mth was another track where horses with 70%+ med could win. The other thing I like to point out is Doc stated in his 1 on 1 video that concerning balance was that although horses with a balance over 8 rarely win on dirt they do on turf. The second thing he pointed out was not to be fooled into thinking that the horse with the lowest balance number will be your winner. In short know your tracks.
Tim
I forgot to mention the dist was 5.5f. Sorry about that my bad.
Tim
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Old 05-07-2018, 06:31 PM   #12
Bill V.
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Let's Parlay

Thank you
Mitch, Tim and Mick and Papajohn

It looks like i picked a nice demo horse in Let's Parlay

Solid effort from the # 2 ranked TPR and RX 2 rated horse

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Old 05-07-2018, 08:07 PM   #13
Mitch44
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Yes Bill you did pick a good one. Nice payoff also of $11.00 , hope you made some money off it.


The absolute best of deceleration is V/ DC . I forgot Ted placed it on the TPR screen which is a big benefit to those primarily using TPR. I'm still using the older version.


DCL is very good but the whole race needs to be consider or what takes place before the 3rd FR. V/DC does all that. Get on the V/DC train,its a direct line to where you want to go.


The train pulled into Parx today and V/DC robbers walked out with $$$$$$


All aboard,
Mitch44
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Old 05-12-2018, 10:13 PM   #14
Mr.Pagine
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Incredible Posts

Folks,

This is all great stuff. You have all made my night, and my weekend.

Happy Punting,
Jon
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Old 05-12-2018, 10:20 PM   #15
Bill V.
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Glad

Glad your getting help here at Pace and Cap

Good Skill Jon
Bill
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Old 05-15-2018, 10:26 AM   #16
Old Arkie Gal
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Gentlemen, a terrific review and a for me a coherent pulling together of some loose ends.
Pat
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Old 05-15-2018, 12:30 PM   #17
fastcharlie55
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Great post and a great group for sharing information. After over 40 years of this game I love I have never agreed with a set of rules for pace line selection. I use an intuitive approach as I think many great opportunities are missed with a rules approach. I always go back on races and check to see if I missed anything on the winning horse. I read the pace lines from the bottom up and look for horses that come back well after layoff and trainers who prepare them well. I live in Florida and only play Florida tracks. Trainers are creatures of habit and have jocks they switch to when they feel a horse is ready and generally prepare them in prep races. The only bottom line way I measure success is ROI .... either I feed them or they feed me.
Again, I thank everyone for sharing info and I will always test new ideas.
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Old 05-15-2018, 01:58 PM   #18
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Bill V tags one again

Hey there

This thread certainly has had a great interest as showing what those reading do bring to the front and also from the last line

Lawrence
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Old 05-16-2018, 02:52 PM   #19
Mitch44
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Deceleration and Distance


Deceleration has a major influence on a horse’s capability and limitations of their best distance. The biggest reason there are so many 5F and 5.5 F races at minor tracks is because those horses can’t make it at major tracks where most sprints are ran at 6F.They literally decelerate to much at 6 F to win and be effective and are shipped to the minors, very similar tothe major leagues of baseball for those who can’t make it in the big leagues.
There they find a home and are competitive winning at the shorter distances however the purses are less. Even at the major tracks longer races have higher purses, speed and the ability to carry speed is rewarded.Trainers that can’t train routers are apt to make less money than those that can. Even within the sprint and route structure longer races are rewarded such as a 7 F verses 6 F or a 1 1/4 vs. a 1 1/8. My experience is that the racing world is oblivious to the deceleration factor. Trainers experiment in most cases and stumble upon a horse’s best distance after the horse fails to win and only getting several place or shows. The better trainers are aware of higher purses and experiment much sooner to find it.

The racing secretary actually fixes all the races at the track, by carding races at many various distances, surfaces and not allowing winning horses to enter a particular race. His goal is to give every horse an equal chance to win, earn purse money and to prevent any one horse, trainer or owner from winning all the money. It works to perfection.

My experience also is that very few are aware of the deceleration factor to include inside connections and handicappers. They are very well aware that each horse has a best distance which isn’t the same thing. Real class horses can win at several distances, they can carry that speed with little deceleration, however even they have limits and a best distance. A horse that can’t win at 8 F can and does win at 1 1/16 and one that wins at 1 1/16 can’twin at 8 F due to the deceleration factor. Connections all tend to wear blinkers in that they all believe they have the best horse in the race and lose their objectivity.

Being well aware of the deceleration factor when choosing pace lines I try to stay within ½ F and if not possible never more than 1 F.Races tend to run slower going longer and faster going shorter, choosing lines not within 1 F will destroy readouts.

Also another reason why I perform an analysis my top contenders is to determine their best distance and surface, there are several ways or tools to quickly accomplish this. Your analysis begins with the race conditions of the race where it describes the distance and surface of today’s race along with other valuable information. Quickly finding the best Speed Rating or two best will put you on target. Same with the Total Energy rating for each race which RDSS provides. The earning box also provides clues as to surface etc.,however make sure its current, not a 7 year old that earned something as a 3year and is no longer the same horse. I use the earnings box to see if a horse ever performed on today’s surface or distance if their chart doesn’t show a race for today’s conditions. I mainly use the horses past performance chart which is current. This allows you to get off the train at the right station say in N.Y.’s Penn Station where as deceleration will take you from there right to the track such as Aqueduct. An analysis of deceleration allows you to arrive at the track and pull right up to valet parking.

It’s a take no prisoners attitude when it comes to money,especially at the track. Better trainers exploit the inefficient ones by claiming horses from the unwary or just plain incompetent trainers. Better trainers are very aware of the best distance and surface of horses in the game.By examining deceleration we can anticipate when a move will pay dividends and be ahead of the crowd while many times having more knowledge than the connections themselves to include trainers. Not just for claims. This is an area that hasn’t been fully explored and contains several ways to implement this factor and they tend to pay better also as most handicappers are too speed oriented to include Sartin devotees.
Within a certain distance such as 6 F there are many horses who are only running for minor awards or none at all because of the deceleration factor. Not only does the factor of deceleration greatly affect the various distances of races it greatly has an effect within each distance itself or in other words every race that is run.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-16-2018 at 03:08 PM.
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